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#1
I'll have a draw preview later tonight, but wanted to put this out there with a match still to come tonight.
ATP Cincinnati
For many players, this is the final tune-up for the U.S. Open. As you would expect, the winner's list at the Western & Southern Open reads as a who's who among the top tier players. Roger Federer has won the title in Cincy six times and is the defending champion. Andy Murray has won here twice in 2008 and 2011. The one notable omission among the champions all-time at this event is Novak Djokovic. Surprisingly, Djokovic has never won this event. That isn't a typo and it isn't because he skips this event a lot. Djokovic has played Cincinnati every year since 2005. He has made the final four times, but has not been to the final since 2012 when he lost to Roger Federer. Djokovic is your top seed this week with a 22-10 record in Cincy.
Roger Federer has rarely not played well this week with a 37-8 mark all-time. He has failed to make the final just twice since 2009. Third seeded Andy Murray is 24-8 in Cincy. The last three years however have been unkind to the Scot. He has not advanced past the quarterfinal round since 2011. The fourth seed this week is Kei Nishikori who only has five matches under his belt all-time at this tournament. Nishikori was worn out at the end of the Rogers Cup, so this may not be his week to reverse that trend. Rounding out the top eight seeds are Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal. Nadal won this event in 2013, but none of the other seeds from fifth to eighth have advanced further than the semis in Cincinnati. Of the seeds from nine to 16, John Isner has had the best success here at 10-7 with a finals appearance in 2013 against Nadal.
This can be a tricky week for all players involved. Even with a week in between the end of this tournament and the start of the U.S. Open, many will weight fitness concerns versus gaining form. As such, seeds are prone to tapping out early in some cases. Over the past five years, there has been an average of about five seeds dropping their first matches at the Western & Southern Open. Last year was the lowest number from that stretch with only three losing early. In three of the last five years, the number has been at least five with two years seeing six seeds drop out early. So with an eye to who might be in danger of dropping out in their first match among the seeds, let's find the more likely candidates.
#4 Kei Nishikori
Nishikori has to be on this list after seeing how fatigued he looked in getting routed by Andy Murray in the Rogers Cup semifinals on Saturday. Nishikori gets the winner of Sergiy Stakhovksy vs. Bernard Tomic. Tomic looks likely if he keeps his composure again this week. That of course is always iffy, but he has beaten Stakhovsky twice in their careers. Nishikori owns two wins over the Aussie, the last coming in Brisbane at the start of the season. If healthy and rested, Nishikori should win here. Given the end to his run in Montreal, that isn't a given.
#5 Stan Wawrinka
Another possible health question here. Wawrinka retired amid the whole #BangGate flap with Nick Kyrgios at the Rogers Cup with a supposed back injury. It should be simple to see if that was legitimate in his first match. He gets a bye and then faces Borna Coric or a qualifier. Wawrinka has only had one huge run in Cincy, making the semis in 2012. Last year, he made the quarters losing to unseeded Julien Benneteau.
#6 Tomas Berdych
Berdych faces either Thomaz Bellucci or Jiri Vesely. He looked rusty in Montreal, dropping his first match since Wimbledon to Donald Young 7-6, 6-3. That included blowing a massive lead in the first set. Berdych dropped his first-up in Cincy last year, so it's not all that far fetched that he could do it again. This pre-U.S. Open buildup hasn't always been the best time of year for him the last three years or so. Bellucci can be surprising on this surface and looks a better shot that Vesely who has yet to transition to hard courts.
#7 Marin Cilic
Just when it looked like Cilic was set to rise in the lead-up to defending the U.S. Open, he's taken a turn for the worse. He looked lost in the final two sets losing to Kei Nishikori at the Citi Open. He followed that up with a straight sets loss to Tomic at the Rogers Cup. He's played decently at this tournament, making the quarters last year. Still, a first match against Joao Sousa or Philipp Kohlschreiber with the pressure starting to mount could be a recipe for a shocker. Kohlschreiber owns five wins in eight meetings with Cilic.
#8 Rafael Nadal
Nadal seemed to have found some decent form in the Rogers Cup last week, but got blasted by Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals 6-2, 6-4. He could face Montreal's surprise package in Jeremy Chardy in his first match in Cincinnati since 2013. Chardy made a nice run to the semis, but didn't have to face a quality returner until Djokovic beat him in the semis. Chardy opens against Rajeev Ram. Consistency isn't always his strong suit, but that is a winnable match. Nadal vs. Chardy would be very intriguing and on this quick surface, Chardy could give Rafa some trouble.
ATP Cincinnati
For many players, this is the final tune-up for the U.S. Open. As you would expect, the winner's list at the Western & Southern Open reads as a who's who among the top tier players. Roger Federer has won the title in Cincy six times and is the defending champion. Andy Murray has won here twice in 2008 and 2011. The one notable omission among the champions all-time at this event is Novak Djokovic. Surprisingly, Djokovic has never won this event. That isn't a typo and it isn't because he skips this event a lot. Djokovic has played Cincinnati every year since 2005. He has made the final four times, but has not been to the final since 2012 when he lost to Roger Federer. Djokovic is your top seed this week with a 22-10 record in Cincy.
Roger Federer has rarely not played well this week with a 37-8 mark all-time. He has failed to make the final just twice since 2009. Third seeded Andy Murray is 24-8 in Cincy. The last three years however have been unkind to the Scot. He has not advanced past the quarterfinal round since 2011. The fourth seed this week is Kei Nishikori who only has five matches under his belt all-time at this tournament. Nishikori was worn out at the end of the Rogers Cup, so this may not be his week to reverse that trend. Rounding out the top eight seeds are Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal. Nadal won this event in 2013, but none of the other seeds from fifth to eighth have advanced further than the semis in Cincinnati. Of the seeds from nine to 16, John Isner has had the best success here at 10-7 with a finals appearance in 2013 against Nadal.
This can be a tricky week for all players involved. Even with a week in between the end of this tournament and the start of the U.S. Open, many will weight fitness concerns versus gaining form. As such, seeds are prone to tapping out early in some cases. Over the past five years, there has been an average of about five seeds dropping their first matches at the Western & Southern Open. Last year was the lowest number from that stretch with only three losing early. In three of the last five years, the number has been at least five with two years seeing six seeds drop out early. So with an eye to who might be in danger of dropping out in their first match among the seeds, let's find the more likely candidates.
#4 Kei Nishikori
Nishikori has to be on this list after seeing how fatigued he looked in getting routed by Andy Murray in the Rogers Cup semifinals on Saturday. Nishikori gets the winner of Sergiy Stakhovksy vs. Bernard Tomic. Tomic looks likely if he keeps his composure again this week. That of course is always iffy, but he has beaten Stakhovsky twice in their careers. Nishikori owns two wins over the Aussie, the last coming in Brisbane at the start of the season. If healthy and rested, Nishikori should win here. Given the end to his run in Montreal, that isn't a given.
#5 Stan Wawrinka
Another possible health question here. Wawrinka retired amid the whole #BangGate flap with Nick Kyrgios at the Rogers Cup with a supposed back injury. It should be simple to see if that was legitimate in his first match. He gets a bye and then faces Borna Coric or a qualifier. Wawrinka has only had one huge run in Cincy, making the semis in 2012. Last year, he made the quarters losing to unseeded Julien Benneteau.
#6 Tomas Berdych
Berdych faces either Thomaz Bellucci or Jiri Vesely. He looked rusty in Montreal, dropping his first match since Wimbledon to Donald Young 7-6, 6-3. That included blowing a massive lead in the first set. Berdych dropped his first-up in Cincy last year, so it's not all that far fetched that he could do it again. This pre-U.S. Open buildup hasn't always been the best time of year for him the last three years or so. Bellucci can be surprising on this surface and looks a better shot that Vesely who has yet to transition to hard courts.
#7 Marin Cilic
Just when it looked like Cilic was set to rise in the lead-up to defending the U.S. Open, he's taken a turn for the worse. He looked lost in the final two sets losing to Kei Nishikori at the Citi Open. He followed that up with a straight sets loss to Tomic at the Rogers Cup. He's played decently at this tournament, making the quarters last year. Still, a first match against Joao Sousa or Philipp Kohlschreiber with the pressure starting to mount could be a recipe for a shocker. Kohlschreiber owns five wins in eight meetings with Cilic.
#8 Rafael Nadal
Nadal seemed to have found some decent form in the Rogers Cup last week, but got blasted by Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals 6-2, 6-4. He could face Montreal's surprise package in Jeremy Chardy in his first match in Cincinnati since 2013. Chardy made a nice run to the semis, but didn't have to face a quality returner until Djokovic beat him in the semis. Chardy opens against Rajeev Ram. Consistency isn't always his strong suit, but that is a winnable match. Nadal vs. Chardy would be very intriguing and on this quick surface, Chardy could give Rafa some trouble.
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