ATP Nice

Open de Nice Cote d’Azur Preview
It’s the last chance to capture form ahead of the French Open as the ATP World Tour makes one of its two stops this week in Nice, France. Dominic Thiem is back as the top seed and defending champion at the Open de Nice Cote d’Azur. Gilles Simon, Kevin Anderson and Benoit Paire round out the top four seeds.Only Simon has significant previous history here with a pair of semifinal trips in 2012 and 2014. Three of the top right seeds are making their Nice debut; Anderson, Joao Sousa andAlexander Zverev.

The tournaments before Grand Slams often yield plenty of surprising results. Nice has not deferred from that with an unseeded player winning three times in the six years since the tournament returned to France in 2010. An unseeded player has made the final in five of six years. There are also a few seeded upsets early on as you would expect. At least two seeds have dropped their opening match in five of the last six years. Here is a look at this week’s seeds and who might be prone to an early exit.

Seed Report
1. Dominic Thiem
A year after losing in the second round in Nice, Thiem took home the title in 2015. It was a brilliant run for the non-seed, who beat four seeded players en route to the championship. The Austrian has been consistent on clay this seaosn with a 16-5 record to go along with one title and one other finals appearance.

2. Gilles Simon
The Frenchman makes his first appearance in Nice since a semifinal run in 2014. He has played here three times, making the quarterfinals or better each time. He comes to Nice with a 5-3 mark on clay in 2016. He is generally beating the players he should beat and losing to the players you would expect him to lose against.

3. Kevin Anderson
Anderson debuts in Nice this year and will be hoping to get more match play this week. After being sidelined with an injury for a couple months, Anderson returned in Madrid with a loss to Gael Monfils. Last week in Rome, Anderson won his first match since January. His draw isn’t great with Fernando Verdasco a likely opponent in his opener after a bye.

4. Benoit Paire
Paire is 0-3 in this tournament. His results have fallen off in recent weeks after a strong run on clay to open the Euro swing. Paire is 8-6 on clay this season, but is definitely one to put on upset alert. He will open against Adrian Mannarino or Robin Haase. Neither is a great clay court player, but it’s Paire in a 250.

5. Joao Sousa
Sousa is another Nice newcomer this year. He heads into the tournament with a 5-6 record on clay this year. Outside of a surprise quarterfinal run in Madrid, he has had trouble winning early on dirt. He has lost his opening match in three of the six tournaments he has played on clay this season and only scored back-to-back wins in Madrid. He opens with talented French teen, Quentin Halys. Halys won the Tallahassee Challenger on clay a few weeks back.

6. Fabio Fognini
The Italian is 1-4 all-time in Nice. 2013 was the first time that Fognini did not fall in his opening match. He is slated to open against a qualifier. Trusting Fognini not to be in FabMode this week is hard to do, so monitor the match-up as he could be a trendy upset pick … but just as likely to catch fire and win, right?

7. Andreas Seppi
Seppi returned from time missed due to hip surgery last week in Rome. He won one and lost one, with the loss coming to Richard Gasquet. He is 2-3 all-time in Nice, but hasn’t played here since 2013. His clay form is not great, but his opener against Daniel Munoz de la Nava is winnable. The Spaniard has lost five straight and dropped his opening match in eight of nine tournaments this season.

8. Alexander Zverev
The German teen is a respectable 7-4 on clay and could use this smaller tournament as a catalyst to a run at Roland Garros. He could find open against Marcel Granollers. Granollers battles Brian Baker, a former Nice finalist. Granollers beat Zverev in Monte Carlo.

Quarters Preview
First Quarter: Dominic Thiem (1)
Thiem and Seppi are the seeds in this quarter. Thiem will need to be ready to go in his opener where he will face Jiri Vesely or Leonardo Mayer. Both are capable of an upset if Thiem is not motivated this week. The bottom of the quarter could see the winner between Hyeon Chung and Paul-Henri Mathieu emerge as a dark horse. With Seppi’s lack of form and generally poor results on clay, it might be tough for him to win more than a match this week.

This is Thiem’s quarter if he wants it. Defending points isn’t a big motivator this week with just 250 up for grabs. Keeping good form heading to Roland Garros would be a bigger motivator.

Second Quarter: Benoit Paire (4)
This is seeded to be a Fabio Fognini-Benoit Paire quarterfinal. With those two, it’s quite possible neither will be there. It’s also possible that the quarter could easily shake out with both seeds advancing. Paire’s lack of production in Nice makes him a large question mark. Fognini will face a qualifier early and then either Guido Pella or another qualifier. That might make him a sneaky pick to get through this quarter.

Third Quarter: Kevin Anderson (3)
This is the most intriguing quarter of the draw. Anderson and Sousa are the seeds, but it is floater Fernando Verdaso who could step in and steal the show. Verdasco is slated to face a qualifier and then Anderson. Verdasco is 2-1 against Anderson with both wins on clay. For Sousa, his first match against Halys could easily be his last this week. The winner there could move through to the quarters with Denis Kudla or Victor Estrella Burgos up in the second round. Neither has done much on clay at this level, so the home standing Halys might be one of those non-seeds who can work a deep run this week.

Fourth Quarter: Gilles Simon (2)
This looks like the toughest quarter with Simon and Zverev as the seeds, but the one I also think might produce a finalist. Marcel Granollers will be one to watch as he battles Brian Baker in round one. The winner gets a shot at Zverev. Granollers already owns a win over the talented German and has been playing hard on clay. Simon will open against Taylor Fritz or Ilya Marchenko. Fritz has cooled since his hot start to the season on hard courts. He isn’t without a chance against Marchenko, but Simon will be the favorite to work into the quarterfinals.

Simon’s steady and sometimes vanilla play could benefit him in this quarter, along with a slightly easier early draw. Zverev is the one to watch though if he gets rolling early.