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Posted: #1
Howdy kids. This will be my Wimbledon home. Mostly ATP picks, but I will venture out with a few WTA also. Been working on the preview for the tournament, so here it is. Hope it helps you in some manner. Daily picks will be coming later as well as futures.

The pomp & circumstance of Wimbledon is upon us for the fortnight as the tradition of the season's third Grand Slam takes center stage. Novak Djokovic is your defending Champion and he will head into this year's tournament as the top seed, looking to collect his second Slam of the season. Wimbledon has been a small, royal club of Champions since 2003. Roger Federer has won the title seven times in that span, while Djokovic has claimed two titles. Rafael Nadal also has a pair of Wimbledon titles in that 12 year span with Andy Murray claiming his solo Wimbledon title in 2013.

In the past four years, there has not been a Finalist without the last name of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal or Murray. Tomas Berdych was the last to crack the Big Four's stranglehold on this tournament with a Finals loss in 2010 to Nadal in straight sets. Djokovic will start at the All-England Club without a prep match, but a sparkling 41-3 mark on the year. The lack of a prep match shouldn't phase Djokovic as that is part of his normal regimen heading into the grass swing. Roger Federer heads to Wimbledon with confidence on grass after winning the Gerry Weber Open title in Halle. Federer's serve was on-point in Germany and should be a big weapon in England over the next two weeks.

Andy Murrray will arrive in fine form after winning the title at the AEGON Championships at Queen's Club. He'll be looking to improve on a disappointing quarter final out last year. Finally, Rafa Nadal hits Wimbleon with a little momentum. Nadal surprisingly won the inaugural Stuttgart tournament on grass before crashing out in Queen's Club in his opener. Still, the match play and confidence from a relatively solid pre-Wimbleon should help the Spaniard. Nadal will be looking to turn around a horrific run of results over the past three years that have seen him go no further than the 4th round (2014) and out in the 2nd round or earlier twice. 

 
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Posted: #2
So that begs the question of whether or not an outsider can break into the Championship mix? Let's take a look at the past five years and see how seeds have fared at the All-England Club. 

In 2014, six seeds lost in R1 with the 18th seed as the highest seed to fall out in the opening round. In R2, seven more seeds dropped out, including three in the Top 13. By the end of round three, there were five more seeds gone with two of those in the Top 10. So in all, after three rounds, there were more than half of the 32 seeds gone (18).

That trend has been prevalent in the last five years with 22 seeds done by round three in 2013, 20 seeds done in that same span in 2012, another 20 out by R3 in 2011 and 19 ousted in the first three rounds in 2010. The bottom line is that there will be a fair number of upsets at Wimbledon in the first three rounds. A Top 10 seed has been KO'ed in the 1st or 2nd round eight times in the last five years with only 2011 seeing all Top 10 seeds through to the 4th round. 

As the tournament rolls on, the top seeds tend to rise to the top as you would expect. Over the five year span from 2010-2014, the final has featured a top four seed in the finals slots all but one. That last one was not a top four seed to make the Finals was Tomas Berdych as the 12th seed in 2010. The semis have been a little looser about a stray double digit seed making it with a double digit party crasher in four of the last five tournaments in the semis. The quarters have been even a bit more open to a surprise as a nonseed has made the quarter finals six times in the last five years and only failed to secure a QF spot once in the last five years.

So let's start by taking a look at this year's seeds, starting with those who might be prone to not seeing the 2nd week of the fortnight.

 
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Posted: #3
#4 Stan Wawrinka
The unexpected French Open Champion may be earning a reputation as a Slam-sational player who only pushes his motivation level upwards when then stakes are the highest, but Wimbledon is still an Achilles' Heel. Before his quarter final showing in 2014, the Swiss had failed to pass the 2nd round in four straight years. More so, he had lost in R1 in three of four years from 2010-2013. Perhaps the 2015 version of Wawrinka is flop proof, but I think there is still some vulnerability for complacency here. Remember, Wawrinka crashed out at the French Open in 2014, his first Slam after winning the Australian Open.

Draw Analysis: Wawrinka opens with Joao Sousa which should be a win, but after that the 2nd round & 3rd round will be dicier. Although he's been off lately, Benjamin Becker is a potential 2nd round match-up with a solid grass pedigree. The 3rd round could see Fernando Verdasco or 32nd seed Dominic Thiem. I say the chances are 50-50 that Wawrinka could be done by the third round or earlier. 

#5 Kei Nishikori
A calf injury ended Nishikori's time at the Gerry Weber Open and will have him on early upset alert. Even when fit, Wimbledon has not been the best fit for Nishikori. He has failed to progress past the 4th round at Wimbledon in his career with two 3rd round exits in his last three trips here. 

Draw Analysis: Nishikori will need to be on-point & healthy when he opens against Simone Bolelli. The Italian took Nishikori five sets in R2 of Wimbledon last year and was up 2-1 at one point in the match. Bolelli found some good form in Nottingham this past week & has been a real tough out at Wimbledon against seeded opponents from time to time. If Nishikori can come through healthy in that match, his chancecs of being upset should diminish with easier match-ups in the 2nd & 3rd round. If he survives Bolelli, I believe he'll at least get to R4.

#6 Tomas Berdych
The Berd Man has gone out in two of the last three years. Last year, he was bumped out in the 3rd round by Marin Cilic in straight sets. Three years ago, it was Ernests Gulbis who straight setted him out in the 1st round. Both years, Berdych was seeded 6th. 

Draw Analysis: Berdych was done no favors drawing Jeremy Chardy in the opening round. Although Berdych has handled Chardy in all three head-to-head matches, the Frenchman has that serve game/heavy forehand that can catch lightning in a bottle when it's on 100%. If Berdych survives, R2 may still present an upset possiblity with Mahut or Krajinovic the opponent. The 3rd round could be the biggest trouble spot with Rosol, Gulbis or Garcia-Lopez possibly in his path. I will not be surprised if Berdych is one of the Top 10 seeds who is shipped out first. 

#8 David Ferrer
Although Ferrer has made it routine to still show up late in Slams, this might be a difficult spot for him. Ferrer was far at his best in his one prep match in Nottingham, losing to Marcos Baghdatis 6-2, 7-6. Perhaps it was just rust in his first match up, but Ferrer did stumble last year in the 2nd round to Andrey Kuznetsov in four sets. That ended a run of back-to-back quarter final appearances at Wimbledon for Ferrer. 

Draw Analysis: Ferrer will have to fight the crowd in R1 against Britain's James Ward. Fortunately for Ferrer, Ward + grass are not a great mix. Ward is just 1-6 all-time at Wimbledon & lost to Tim Smyczek in Nottingham in R1 this past week. I will expect Ferrer to survive his opener. R2 could be a trouble spot if young Czech Jiri Vesely advances. His big serve can be a major weapon on the slick grass. If the Spaniard can get past that spot, then he looks good likely to work deep to at least R4. 

#10 Rafael Nadal
A no brainer of course because of recent history that has seen Nadal exiting Wimbledon early. 

Draw Analysis: Rafa should be pretty pleased with his draw that sees him against Thomaz Bellucci to open and then Dustin Brown or Yen-Hsun Lu. Certainly both of those guys have pulled off some shockers on grass, but neither has been in a great vein of form lately. R3 could be the toughest potentially among those first three rounds with 22nd seed Viktor Troicki in righteous form on grass with a Finals appearance in Stuttgart and a semifinal showing at Queen's Club. Troicki has that all or nothing type game on grass that will definitely bother Nadal if he's there in that round. For me, that's the big trouble spot for Nadal if he's going to go deep in this tournament. 
 
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Posted: #4
#11 Grigor Dimitrov
There is just no getting around the disappointment that Dimitrov's 2015 season has been. He stands at 19-12 and cannot seem to get things going. He lost in the opening round at Roland Garros and needed a miraculous fold job by Sam Querrey to win his first prep match on grass at the AEGON Championships. He then lost his next to Gilles Muller in straight sets. Big hitters look like they could really trouble him on grass. Dimitrov did enjoy his best Slam showing with a semifinal appearance last year, but he seems a far cry from that player.

Draw Analysis: An opening round match against Delbonis would seem to suit Dimitrov. Delbonis has four all-time matches on grass and no wins. The 2nd round should be tougher with American Steve Johnson a likely foe. Johnson's serve could be wicked on grass and keep him in tight sets with Dimitrov. Round three would also be testy for Dimitrov with 21st seed Richard Gasquet seeded to meet him in that spot, but heavy serving qualifiers De Schepper & John Patrick Smith also in the mix. Gasquet is 4-0 against Dimitrov & could be the stopping point for him for the fortnight. 

#16 David Goffin
Goffin was a bit surprising to me as he moved through to the Finals at s-Hertogenbosch. That was his best showing on grass to this point in his career. He has lost in the opening round the last two years in Wimbledon and never made it farther than round three. 

Draw Analysis: A reasonable early round draw could see Goffin through a couple rounds. He opens with qualifier Horacio Zeballos. Zeballos was solid in qualis, but he's never won a main draw match at Wimbledon. His serve may keep him in that opener though, so don't discount the upset entirely. R2 would see either Matosevic or wild card Liam Broady. Matosevic has dropped ten matches in a row & Broady is very green on the surface with this being his 1st main draw appearance. A win though and confidence could be sky high in R2 and make that intriguing. R3 could have been tough with floater Marcos Baghdatis in this part of the draw, but a calf injury may prevent him from taking part in Wimbledon. Goffin might just have gotten a break that can at least get him to R3 or R4. 

#18 Gael Monfils
The on-again, off-again injury status of Monfils is on-again. Monfils looked well off his game in losing set one to Andreas Seppi at the Gerry Weber Open 6-1 before retiring down 1-0 in the 2nd set of their quarter final match in Halle. Prior to that, Monfils had been in reasonably good form with wins over Rosol & Kukushkin in straight sets. Now with the injury question again and Monfils history of flops at the All-England Club, Monfils has to be considered a prime candidate for an early exit. If he takes part in the festitivities, this will be Monfils first back-to-back Wimbledons since 2010-2011. He lost in the 2nd round last year.

Draw Analysis: If healthy, R1 should be a win for Monfils against Carreno-Busta. The Spaniard lost his lone Wimbledon match last year to Ferrer in four sets with three being very lopsided. R2 would be the tricky one for Monfils with fellow Frenchie Adrian Mannarino a possible match-up. Survival to R3 could earn him a showdown with 12th seed Gilles Simon. Simon owns Monfils 5-1 head-to-head, so R3 looks like end game if Monfils makes it that far. 

#20 Roberto Bautista-Agut
I've been bearish on RBA for quite some time. He has gone out in the 2nd round in both Slams so far this year and is 0-2 on grass in preps for Wimbledon. RBA made the 3rd round last year after a 2nd round showing in 2013. It's definitely not his favorite surface and he looks the part of someone who will be gone by the end of round three.

Draw Analysis: RBA has a workable draw with Ruben Bemelmans in R1. R2 will yield eiher Youzhny or Paire. Both have been in miserable form mostly, but Youzhny does have good history at Wimbledon with 4th round showings or better from 2011-2013 before last year's 2nd round exit. RBA could sneak through to the third round where 15th seed Felciano Lopez may be waiting. That could be his toughest spot. Given this draw, I do think he'll be around a few rounds. 


 
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Posted: #5
#25 Andreas Seppi
The Italian has made a routine of showing well in the smaller grass prep tournaments before flaming out at Wimbledon. This year, Seppi made the Final in Halle, losing to Roger Federer. This past week, he crashed out in his opener against Yen-Hsun Lu in Nottingham. At Wimbledon, he has last in the opening round two of the last three years and has not progressed past the 2nd round in four of the last five years.

Draw Analysis: Seppi opens with Brydan Klein. Klein played a few grass court Challengers and went 5-2. He did beat Marcos Baghdatis in one of those, so he's not without a chanceto try & score his maiden Wimbledon win. If Seppi moves on, R2 Stakhovsky or Coric will be a tough out. Survival there means meeting #3 Andy Murray in the third round where his Wimbledon will surely end.  Given this draw, I think Seppi is out sooner rather than later. Give the Brit Klein a solid shot to pull off an opening round stunner. 

#28 Pablo Cuevas
It should be no surprise that the clay court specialist struggles on grass. Cuevas  is 4-5 on grass, but has just one win at Wimbledon back in 2009.

Draw Analysis: Cuevas draws red hot Denis Kudla who won a Grass Challenger and made another Final in the build-up to Wimbledon. If he should shrug off the American, he will face Alexande Zverev or Gabashvili. I don't foresee a long stay for Cuevas in this tournament. Give Kudla a good shot to beat him in R1. 

#31 Jack Sock
Even though I think Sock is on a definite uptick with his results this year, his draw is very tough. On top of that, Sock has only played Wimbledon once and that was last year where he exited in R2. 

Draw Analysis: Big serving Sam Groth is up first and that may very well be the last for Sock. Groth won the Manchester Challenger in June on grass and went 3-2 in Stuttgart & Nottingham combined. The plus for Sock is that Groth has rarely played Wimbledon also and has never won a main draw match. If Sock should advance, R2 would see Jaziri or James Duckworth. Duckworth could be an intriguing opponent as he had Gasquet down 2-1 last year in the opening round. Sock's R3 match would be locked in with Federer should the American make it that far. I think the chances are he's gone before then. 

*That's all for this part of the preview. More to come on Sunday or Monday. Peace & chicken grease. 
 
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Posted: #6
welcome King , It is nice to see you post here 

Do you like Thiem @-170 money line ? Hewitt @-170 money line ? 

Hewitt vs. Sella

Thiem vs. Jarko Nieminem
 
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Posted: #7
 
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Posted: #8
great preview - looking forward to your picks!
 
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Posted: #9
You painted a pretty glum picture for Nishikori. I'm watching out for him. He's got pretty much all clay court specialists in his first three rounds. Not to mention, Nishikori is a different tennis player since the US Open. His history before that is irrelevant.

We'll see how serious his injury is though. That's really the only thing stopping him from the 1/4's imo.
 
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Posted: #10
Some good stuff bro but be leary of paralysis by over analysis
 
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Posted: #11
well written, thanks
 
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Posted: #12
Retired from SBR?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Demetrius4UK:

welcome King , It is nice to see you post here 

Do you like Thiem @-170 money line ? Hewitt @-170 money line ? 

Hewitt vs. Sella

Thiem vs. Jarko Nieminem

I'm still not quite sure where Hewitt is at with so few matches to judge him on. The plus is that Sela is not a good grass court player. You would hope Hewitt efforts well in his final Wimbledon. Thiem - the thing that would scare me off of that price is his inexperience on the surface. I would think his game can be productive on grass, but he's not proven his ability on it yet. Nieminen while no grass court giant is a crafty vet who usually is a tough out. 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by isport:

Retired from SBR?

You'd have to ask them. I don't have a clue what they are doing over there. All I know is I got a message that I was banned with no reason given and no one willing to even acknowledge what they did. That's not the sort of place I care to be at since they seem to be allowing their mods free will to do whatever they please. Lots of good dudes there, but like any place a bad apple can ruin the taste of everything for you. So, I'm enjoying it over here. 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36:


You'd have to ask them. I don't have a clue what they are doing over there. All I know is I got a message that I was banned with no reason given and no one willing to even acknowledge what they did. That's not the sort of place I care to be at since they seem to be allowing their mods free will to do whatever they please. Lots of good dudes there, but like any place a bad apple can ruin the taste of everything for you. So, I'm enjoying it over here. 


You're at a better place now. I love it here, so much to offer outside of just a forum.

I left SBR years ago, after making sure they banned me literally at my request. That place is full of Aholes and the mods and admin are the worst, outside of a forum that is not worth reading they offer nothing. Always enjoyed checking in on your tennis threads occasionally. Good to see you at covers and now I'll be checking on the tennis forum here more often.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by isport:



You're at a better place now. I love it here, so much to offer outside of just a forum.

I left SBR years ago, after making sure they banned me literally at my request. That place is full of Aholes and the mods and admin are the worst, outside of a forum that is not worth reading they offer nothing. Always enjoyed checking in on your tennis threads occasionally. Good to see you at covers and now I'll be checking on the tennis forum here more often.

Iam happy that he is here too 
The Eagle is Eagle everywhere  
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36:


I'm still not quite sure where Hewitt is at with so few matches to judge him on. The plus is that Sela is not a good grass court player. You would hope Hewitt efforts well in his final Wimbledon. Thiem - the thing that would scare me off of that price is his inexperience on the surface. I would think his game can be productive on grass, but he's not proven his ability on it yet. Nieminen while no grass court giant is a crafty vet who usually is a tough out. 

I looked at H2H , Last matches for those players on GRASS this season 

ended up fading Hewitt game and looking for better events

Thanks , Good Luck for you 
 
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Posted: #18
How bout Burgos favored over Becker?! That seems crazy. Love Burgos but doubt he's ever even one a grass court atp match. Line opened with Becker as 1.5 point fav. Now he's slight dog. Probly just follow the movement like a puppet (myself). You?
 
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Posted: #19
Any bets as far as futures to win the. Tournament?
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by ImWickedSmart:

How bout Burgos favored over Becker?! That seems crazy. Love Burgos but doubt he's ever even one a grass court atp match. Line opened with Becker as 1.5 point fav. Now he's slight dog. Probly just follow the movement like a puppet (myself). You?

I'm so far away from that match, I couldn't see it with a telescope. I don't like to play matches with at big of a line move. Injury concerns, etc. where I don't think it's really in my interest to touch that. 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Bmansell33:

Any bets as far as futures to win the. Tournament?

I'm still mulling some over and going to wait a day or two to see some things. 
 
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Posted: #22
BOLD = 1.0 unit plays
BOLD = 0.5 unit plays

6.29.15
ATP: Nishikori-Bolelli Over 37 @ -102
ATP: Young @ +170
ATP: Broady @ +180
ATP: Zeballos +2.5 Sets @ +100
WTA: Hantuchova @ +105
WTA: L.Davis @ -118

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36:


I'm still mulling some over and going to wait a day or two to see some things. 

Yeah obviously the game is about to start, though somehow I agree with your recent post

6.29.15
ATP: Nishikori-Bolelli Over 37 @ -102
ATP: Young @ +170
ATP: Broady @ +180
ATP: Zeballos +2.5 Sets @ +100
WTA: Hantuchova @ +105
WTA: L.Davis @ -118

 
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Posted: #24
My main futures focus I think is on the men's 2nd quarter which is headed by Wawrinka. Want to see him play a match first before I jump in.

Also going to scrub up on WTA tomorrow & look at futures.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36:


You'd have to ask them. I don't have a clue what they are doing over there. All I know is I got a message that I was banned with no reason given and no one willing to even acknowledge what they did. That's not the sort of place I care to be at since they seem to be allowing their mods free will to do whatever they please. Lots of good dudes there, but like any place a bad apple can ruin the taste of everything for you. So, I'm enjoying it over here. 

Whats up EP, this is MDF (MagicDiceFlow). 

Glad to see you here. SBR banned me for no apparent reason as well. I truly think that they are backed by some books that dont like us there because we're giving out too much tips on the tennis side. They banned me right after I went on a huge run and giving out tips every day with write ups on every single match. I guess me and some followers were pounding them too hard so they called down on the SBR mods to ban us. 

They too never would give me a reason why I was banned ....phuck em, nothing but a bunch of idiot trolls over there and only a handfuls of sharps like yourself. 

GL on your picks
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