ATP Wimbledon

It’s the quick highlight ending to the grass court season as Wimbledon begins on Monday. Novak Djokovic is seeking the three-peat in London as he once again heads into this year’s tournament as the top seed. Wimbledon continues to belong to only a select few since 2003. Djokovic’s win in 2015 gives him three titles at theAll England Club overall, while Roger Federer has been the bell cow with seven titles in the last 13 years. Rafael Nadal also has a pair of Wimbledon titles in that span from 2003, but is not participating this year due to a wrist injury. Andy Murrayhas one Wimbledon title back in 2013.

The Finals Belong to The Big Four

Since 2011, there has not been a finalist without the last name of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal or Murray. Tomas Berdych was the last outsider to crack that prestiguous list with a finals loss in 2010 to Nadal in straight sets. The semifinals have been a bit more open to seeing an unfamiliar name. Richard Gasquet was that name last year as the 21st seed. Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic were first timers in the semis in 2014 as the 11th and 8th seeds respectively. Jerzy Janowicz was a surprise semifinalist in 2013 as the 24th seed along with first timer Juan Martin Del Potro as the #8 seed. Prior to that, it was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga making the semis back-to-back in 2011 and 2012 as the only player to crack the “Big Four” in London.

Top ten upsets have disappeared in London the last two years. The highest seed to lose since 2014 was Fernando Verdasco as the 18th seed in 2014. Last year, 19th seeded Tommy Robredo as the highest seed to be upset in round one. 2015 saw the fewest number of seeded upsets in round one (4) over the past six years. From 2010-2013, there were 28 seeded upsets in the opening round. At least seven per year occurred in three of those four years. Three of the last six years have seen at least two seeds in the Top 12 lose in the opening round.

The Upset Alarm Sounds Louder in Round Two

The second round seems to be where more upsets have occurred with better frequency. Last year, five seeds including two in the Top 10, were dumped out in round two. In 2014 in round two, seven seeds dropped out, including three in the Top 13. 2013 saw seven seeds go down in round two, including three in the Top 10. If you check out the chart below, you can see that trend has definitely been prevalent since 2010. A top ten seed has bit the dust in round two every year in that span except for 2011.

After three rounds, there were more than half of the 32 seeds gone (18) last year. In 2014, that number was at 19. That trend continued with 22 seeds done by round three in 2013, 20 seeds done in that same span in 2012, another 20 out by round three in 2011 and 19 ousted in the first three rounds in 2010. So while there could be some shockers in the opening round, the second round has been the scene of the highest seeded knockout every year since 2010. That saw seeds 5, 7, 6, 2, 13 and 7 as the highest seeds to lose; all in round two.

Expect At Least One Surprise in the Quarterfinals

As the tournament rolls on, the top seeds tend to rise to the top as you would expect. There are still a few surprises though as the tournament progresses. The quarterfinals continued to see a trend of a non-seeded player getting through with Vasek Pospisil as that surprise in 2015. 2014 featured wild card Nick Kyrgios in the quarters; 2013 saw a pair of non-seeded quarterfinalists with Lukasz Kubot and Fernando Verdasco pulling that off. 2012 was the last year where seeds made up all the slots in the quarters with 2011 and 2010 seeing three of the 16 quarterfinalists come through as non-seeds, including qualifier Bernard Tomic in 2011.

Seeded History 2010-2015

https://tennispig.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/wimbledon-seed-chart.jpg?w=620

Seed Report: Quarter #1

1. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic is 52-8 all-time at Wimbledon and comes in with a 14 match win streak at this tournament. He has won 20 of his last 21 at the All-England Club and has not missed the final since 2012. The only real threat in this quarter would seem to lie in the quarterfinals for Djokovic. Milos Raonic is the top seed opposite of the Serb and seeded to meet him in that round. Raonic’s new relationship with John McEnroe has yielded positive results with a spot in the Queens Club final showcasing some of the Canadian’s best work. He could provide a stern test in the QFs.

6. Milos Raonic
Raonics confidence should be high despite losing the Queen’s Club final to Andy Murray. Raonic is 10-5 in his career at Wimbledon, including a semifinal trip in 2014. He lost a tough third rounder last year to Nick Kyrgios, but gets a more beneficial draw this year. Jack Sock is the first seed he would meet in round three with Kevin Anderson as a potential fourth round foe. The sixth seed is 7-1 against Sock and 1-1 against Anderson with their last meeting at the French Open in 2013. If Raonic serves like he did at Queen’s Club, there is every reason to believe he will get a shot at Djokovic in the quarters.

11. David Goffin
Grass has not been friendly surface for the Belgian. Goffin stands at just 11-13 on the surface. He is 5-4 at Wimbledon with last year’s fourth round showing ranking as his best. 2015 was his best draw as he avoided a big name in the opening round. This year he has Alexander Ward, a British wildcard who has dropped four straight on grass and is appearing in his first main draw here. The danger comes in round two with Eduoard Roger-Vasselin or Temuraz Gabashvili waiting.

Neither has much of a winning track record at Wimbledon, but both have some requisite qualities that could pose difficulties to Goffin. Gabashvili especially has that grip it and rip it approach that can cause issues on fast grass. Kevin Anderson would be a potential third round opponent if the Belgian survives that far. That would again be a rough test with Anderson’s serve as a major factor on this surface.

13. David Ferrer
Ferrer might have been a more popular first round exit if not for a favorable draw. He gets Dudi Sela to open, the same Dudi Sela he beat 6-4, 6-4 at the Ricoh Open a few weeks back on grass. Still, this is a tricky for Ferrer who has been unable to find consistency this season. This may again be a case where the second round is the oust round. That is where Ferrer could face serve and volley master Nicolas Mahut. Mahut battles Brydan Klein in his opener, so he should be there. Mahut won the Ricoh Open for third time in four years in the Wimbledon build-up. The Frenchman has not been able to parlay that grass court success into Wimbledon success in the past, but this might be the right time for him to make a run. Philipp Kohlschreiber would be next in line in round three if Ferrer survives to that point.

20. Kevin Anderson
The big South African might finally be finding a rhythm after missing chunks of 2016 due to injury and perhaps lofty expectations that have put too much pressure on him. He has been consistent at Wimbledon the last two years with fourth round finishes. His serve was gaining steam in Nottingham this week, so if he can carry that over, the 20th seed could be dangerous. The problem is that his ground game seems a bit regressed form his breakout form last year a the U.S. Open in particular.

He opens against Denis Istomin, whom he has beaten twice. Anderson could go against Nicolas Almagro in round two. Don’t sleep on the Spaniard there. Almagro is not a grass court guy, but his serve is good enough for him to hang around against Anderson. Goffin is seeded to meet him in the third round and if Anderson is still kicking, its Milos Raonic in round four. Given Raonic’s current level, that seems the ripcord pulling point for Anderson in a best case scenario.

21. Philipp Kohlschreiber
The German has had his issues winning on grass outside of Germany. Within his home country, Kohlschreiber is 11-5 since 2014. Outside of Germany on grass, the 21st seed is just 1-2. Kohlsxhreiber’s brightest moment was a quarterfinal run here in 2012, but he has lost in the first or second round in four of the last five years. His opener against Pierre-Hugues Herbert should provide a good start. He is 2-0 against the Frenchman and beat him handily in Stuttgart earlier in the month.

The second round could pit him against Denis Kudla who is no where near his form of last summer. Kohlschreiber also beat Kudla in Stuttgart, so the third round looks realistic for Kohli. That could wind up being a wonderful veteran match-up with Mahut. The German has a real shot to get to round four this year if he can shake off his past Wimbledon failures and take advantage of this draw.

27. Jack Sock
Sock would seem to have the requisite big serve and power ground game to have success on grass, but Newport has been the only grass tournament he has been able to conquer with consistency. At Wimbledon, Sock is just 1-2. He’s fortunate to get Ernests Gulbis in round one. Gulbis’ woeful inconsistency should give Sock a legit chance to get a win. The second round would see him against Robin Haase or Diego Schwartzman. Haase seems the likely opponent. That could have the two playing for the second straight Slam after Sock defeated Haase in five sets at Roland Garros to the boos of the French crowd. It would be a winnable match-up for Sock, but given his failures at Wimbledon, The Pig won’t be shocked if he loses. The third round looks like his max with Raonic as his probable opponent if he is in that position.

28. Sam Querrey
Querrey us 8-8 in his career at Wimbledon. His biggest problem has been the draw. Last year, he drew Roger Federer in round two, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga the year before. That ended in a 14-12 fifth set. Querrey obviously has the big game to produce on grass and should have a good shot at working through to round three. That is where Djokovic will be waiting and that is where Querrey will fall.

Non-Seeded Dark Horses
There are several veteran names in this quarter who could spoil the seeded party. Nicolas Mahut has already been mentioned and the Frenchman could have an outside shot at playing in the third or fourth round. Temuraz Gabashvili is another big bopper in the bottom part of the quarter who could conceivably find himself in round three or four. A long shot to upset the apple cart is Andreas Seppi. The Italian is underrated on grass, but big hitters will be his kryptonite in London. That means round two where he could go against Raonic might be the end of the road.

Quarter Predictions
Don’t look for a non-seed to make the quarterfinals in this quarter. Although there could be some openings for Mahut or someone else here, the strength lies with the top seeds here. Djokovic isn’t likely to be troubled as he works to the quarters and Raonic has favorable match-ups against any of the seeds he could meet. It’s a tantalizing quarterfinal if it happens with Djokovic against Raonic. The 7-0 head-to-head says Djokovic goes through, but grass could be a bit of an equalizer where Raonic can use his massive serve to keep the sets tight. I am quite certain that a certain Swiss third seed would have a keen interest in seeing that serve prevail. 

Seed Report: Quarter #2

3. Roger Federer
The seven time Wimbledon champ heads into this year’s tournament with good health, but perhaps some shaky confidence. Federer went 5-2 in Stuttgart and Halle during the pre-Wimbledon grass court swing. The losses to Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev in three sets could be cause for concern. Fed wasn’t particularly poor, but wasn’t overly sharp either. He will need much better consistency if he’s going to make the final for the third straight season.

The positives for Federer are in the early portion of the draw. He opens against Guido Pella who has never won a Wimbledon main draw match. The second round could see the Swiss face Ricardas Berankis or Marcus Willis. In a best of five setting, Federer should have plenty to take care of business even with some flashes of inconsistency. The third round likely gives him his first stiff challenge with Alexandr Dolgopolov of perhaps Jan-Lennard Struff on tap. Dog found a little momentum in Nottingham and his last three Wimbledon losses have all been to seeded players in five sets. Fed is 3-0 versus Dolgopolov, including an Australian Open win this year. Still, this version of Federer isn’t quite at that level yet and could have a tougher time.

Fed should feel good though with seeds Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils both with question marks if they even make it to the fourth round. Kei Nishikori is the seed slated to meet him in the quarterfinals. Federer is 79-10 at Wimbledon. Nishikori is just 8-6 and has never made it past round four. He’s also trying to recover from a rib injury. All in all, Federer got a pretty neat draw to make a deep run if he can recapture some of his best stuff on grass.

5. Kei Nishikori
The 5th seed is a definite injury risk this year (what year is he not). He pulled out of Halle with a rib issue. He expects to be fully fit for the opening round, but this is still not his strongest surface. Nishikori pulled out last year in round two due to a calf injury and his 2014 fourth round run was his best by far. Still, he has not beaten much worth mentioning on this surface during his career. Hes talked about the quarterfinals being his goal this year, but admitted that he needs to get some confidence with some early wins.

Nishikori wasn’t dealt the kindest opener with Sam Groth up first. Groth has been mostly poor this year, but has the big serve to wreak havoc on this surface. Groth did get on the board with his first main draw win at Wimbledon last year, so he won’t roll over. Should Nishikori get by, round two looks better with Julien Benneteay or Illya Marchenko waiting. Round three could be the tipping point for the 5th seed. Dangerous floater Gilles Muller could slip through there and 29th seed Pablo Cuevas showed he is not grass pushover this past week in Nottingham by making the final.

The fourth round would likely find 9th seed Marin Cilic, 23rd seed Ivo Karlovic or perhaps danger man Sergiy Stakhovksy who stunned Federer here in 2013. Don’t expect Nishikori to meet his goal of the quarterfinals. There is just too much to get in his way along the way.

9. Marin Cilic
Cilic is a clear threat at Wimbledon. He has made the quarterfinals two years in a row. He improved after dropping his grass opener to Radek Stepanek to made the semifinals at Queen’s Club. He dropped a three set decision to Andy Murray there. The Croat is 17-8 all-time at this tournament and opens against Brian Baker. The trouble could be in that dangerous second round where Stakhovksy likely will be waiting. Cilic is 4-0 against Stak, but has dropped a set in three of their four meetings.

He could meet Karlovic in the third round if seeds hold. That will be tough and likely comes down to a few key points. Still, if Cilic can survive through three, momentum could be on his side for another shot at the quarters.

16. Gilles Simon
The Frenchman is 16-10 overall at Wimbledon and made the quarterfinals last year. 2016 has been tougher and his grass court form is not the best heading to London. Simon suffered losses to Juan Martin Del Potro and Kyle Edmund in this year’s lead-ins, a far cry from his 2015 form. He draws Janko Tipsarevic in the first round and that should help. The Serb is still trying to find himself after missing chunks of time due to injury. His serve makes him dangerous, but Simon has handled him in eight of ten previous meetings.

Round two could see Bjorn Fratangelo or the diminishing return known as Grigor Dimitrov. Even at his best, Dimitrov was never a problem for Simon (1-5). Trouble likely hits in round three where 17th seed Gael Monfils or new Nottingham champion Steve Johnson could be in the mix to take on the 16th seed. I will touch on La Monf in a bit. Johnson could be a tough out with his newfound confidence and always huge serve. If he somehow survives, round four looks like a dead end with Federer in his path.

17. Gael Monfils
Monfils usually entertains here, but has never gone past round three. He comes to London short on fitness and match play. He’s been trying to recover from a groin injury as well as a viral infection that kept him from playing at Roland Garros. La Monf is 11-7 all-time at Wimbledon. The good news for Monfils is a familiar opponent in Jeremy Chardy in round one. He has beaten his fellow Frenchie twice in the past. Chardy is tough on this surface though when his serve is firing. He lost to 6th seed Tomas Berdych last year in the opening round in four sets with three decided in tiebreaks. Keep Monfils on upset alert in that one. The second round could be just as tough with Steve Johnson his likely opponent. If Monfils makes round three, he will have earned it and surprised me a little.

23. Ivo Karlovic
Karlovic is 14-11 during his career at Wimbledon with one quarterfinal back in 2009.Dr.Ivo could be out early though with a game Borna Coric ready to battle him in round one. Coric beat Stakhovsky last year in a five set thriller. If Karlovic gets that win, then he could get on a roll and set up the big third round clash with Cilic.

29. Pablo Cuevas
Cuevas did well in the low pressure environment of Nottingham, making the final where he lost a tight 7-6, 7-5 decision to Steve Johnson. At Wimbledon, it has been different with just a 1-3 record overall. Andrey Kuznetsov is his opening round opponent. The Russian made the third round at Wimbledon in 2014, but failed to make the main draw last year. Perhaps he will make amends with the seeded upset here? Should Cuevas pull that off, he could face Gilles Muller for the second straight week. The Uruguyan stunned Muller in three sets at Nottingham, but could find it tough to repeat that feat.

30. Alexandr Dolgopolov
A 7-6 mark doesn’t scream threat to most, but the Dog is impossible to predict. The plus is facing Evgeny Donskoy in round one, a man he has beaten twice. Another plus was the Dog getting some match play under his belt in Nottingham last week. Being his first match play in over a month, it was important for him to get some wins. He is a tough out here with three straight five set losses ending his Wimbledon runs from 2013-2015. His draw reads third round meeting with Federer, but a second round ouster to Struff or Daniel Evans won’t totally surprise.

Non-Seeded Dark Horses
Steve Johnson will have a lot of eyes on him this week after winning his first ATP title in Nottingham this past week. His serve has been at an elite level and would give him a shot against most in this draw. Sergiy Stakhovsky and Gilles Muller look to be the two most dangerous floaters outside of Johnson. Stakhovsky has shown the ability to serve and volley on this surface and beat the best. Muller has been hot with a 9-4 mark in three pre-Wimbledon grass court tournaments. His serve alone will put a scare into this draw.

Quarter Predictions
All eyes will be on Roger Federer to see if he can recapture the magic that has made him one of the toughest outs on grass. He did not show his best in the tuneup tournaments, but this is Wimbledon and this draw looks good for him. Cilic and Karlovic could be dangerous with their big games on this slick surface, so keep an eye on a deep run by one of them. I still think Nishikori gets picked off before any possible marquee match-ups can happen and don’t be surprised to see and unseeded quarterfinalist in this draw.

Seed Report: Quarter #3

4. Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka heads to London with no momentum after getting beat in his lone grass tuneup at Queen’s Club by Fernando Verdasco. The Swiss blamed it on a lack of practice on grass, but that seems a flimsy excuse. Just shrug and tell us what we all know, it was a Non-Slam Stan effort. That again may not hurt him as he mas made back-to-back quarterfinals at Wimbledon and believes the grass courts to be suited to his late blooming game. He is 17-11 all-time at the All-England Club. Prior to the last two years, Wimbledon was a house or horrors for Wawrinka with first round losses in three of four years between 2010-2013.

He draws Taylor Fritz in round one. Fritz has struggled of late, but does have the tools to win on grass. This is his first main draw appearance at Wimbledon though, so it’s a tough ask for him to win in this spot. The repetition of danger in the second round continues with Wawrinka’s draw where he could see Del Potro. Delpo has a tough one against a capable Stephane Robert in round one, but could pose a large threat to Wawrinka in R2. If the Swiss escapes that trouble spot, he looks good to round four where 19th seed Bernard Tomic or 14th seed Roberto Bautista Agut could be waiting. Verdasco is a problematic floater in this section too. If the Swiss survives that 2nd round trouble spot, he could make it three quarterfinals in a row.

8. Dominic Thiem
The meteoric rise of the Austrian has continued onto grass. A surface that had not seen much success for Thiem early on turned into a title win in Stuttgart to follow up his first slam semifinal at Roland Garros. He followed his Stuttgart success with a semifinal run in Halle where he lost to his first round opponent Florian Mayer. That obviously raises a red flag right away. Thiem only has three main draw matches at Wimbledon with a 1-2 overall record. Despite his recent play, he could be in big trouble in the opening round with Mayer’s variety.

If he slips out of round one, Thiem could see big serving Jiri Vesely in round two. Round three is seeded to see #31 Joao Sousa in that spot, but tricky qualifiers Dennis Novikov or Luka Saville could have something to say about that or his first round opponent Dmitry Tursunov. Thiem is another one where the early rounds are tricky, but if he escapes, he could see himself with a spot in the 4th round at minimum.

10. Tomas Berdych
The Czech could be one to watch this fortnight. He has a solid 32-12 career mark at Wimbledon and made the final back in 2010. He lost his only pre-Wimbledon match to Marcos Baghdatis in Halle. Its not a bad loss considering the Cypriot’s play during the grass swing. This year’s 10th seed made the fourth round last year where he was pounded by Simon in straights. His draw opens against Ivan Dodig who has shown some resurgent play in singles action this season. Dodig isn’t racking up big wins, but he’s shown good fight and that could put some pressure on Berdych in round one.

Round two likely shows grass enthusiast Benjami Becker as Berdych’s next foe. Becker has had some nice results on grass in his career, but appears a few notches off his best. Expect Berdych to slip into round three where he could find wunderkind Alexander Zverev. The talented German teen made the Halle final last week and could be a landmine in Berdych’s draw. Should Berdych get through to round four, he does have potential for a quarterfinal. He might face Thiem or a surprise like Mayer, but his experience will give him a shot.

14. Roberto Bautista Agut
The Spaniard has a 6-3 mark at Wimbledon with last year’s fourth round run ranking as his best. He made the quarters at Queen’s Club in his lone grass tuneup. He has improved each yeat at Wimbledon from a second round exit in 2013 to the third round in 2014 and the fourth last year. His draw isn’t the worst for another mini-run. He opens against Jordan Thompson. The Aussie played a couple of grass Challengers as tuneups and wasn’t far off with a semifinal and quarterfinal showing. His lack of experience at Wimbledon (zero matches) is his biggest drawback. As such, RBA should get past him. The second round could pose a problem with veterans Mikhail Kukushkin and Martin Klizan battling out for that slot. I would still expect RBA to survive. The third round looks like a possible exit point with the winner of the Tomic-Verdasco first round match being his likely opponent. Both have the game to trouble him on grass.

19. Bernard Tomic
The talented, but often unfocused Aussie showed better to open the grass court swing this year. He made the semis in Queen’s Club, beating Kevin Anderson, Verdasco and Muller before losing to Raonic in the semifinals. He is 10-6 at Wimbledon during his career, but has been unable to come close to matching his 2011 quarterfinal run. He made the fourth round in 2013 as his best finish since then. The draw make look tough in name, but seeing Verdasco first up may actually be a comfortable beginning for Tomic. The 19th seed has beaten four of five times with the Spaniard’s lone win coming back in 2009. It won’t be easy, but it is a winnable match for the Aussie.

Survival in round one should yield an easier time in round two where Radu Albot or Gastao Elias would be the opponent. A win there and Tomic gets to round three likely against RBA. On grass, Tomic should feel he has a realistic shot to win. The tutilage of Lleyton Hewitt could pay off with a trip to the fourth round. That could mean a showdown with Stan Wawrinka. They have split two career meetings with Tomic’s win coming on grass in Davis Cup play in 2011.

24. Alexander Zverev
We get to find out if Zverev’s run in Halle was a product of more good home cooking for the German or if he’s ready to step out and shine on grass. His four wins in Halle en route to the final were almost half of his nine career wins on the surface. Zverev is just 1-1 with 2015 being his lone trip to the All-England Club. He lost in round two to Kudla last year. This year. he could be the story instead. He has some tricky vets to get through first. HIs opening match is against Paul-Henri Mathieu and round two could see a match-up against Mikhail Youzhny. Wins through two rounds would likely land him against Berdych. The Czech is 3-0 against him with two wins coming this season. The last was a five set classic at the Davis Cup where Berdych prevailed 7-6, 1-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Zverev wouldn’t be without a chance in that one if it happens.

31. Joao Sousa
Sousa has never won at Wimbledon with first round losses in the past two seasons. He went 0-2 in the grass tuneups in Halle and Nottingham. The plus for Sousa is that he starts with Dmitry Turnsunov in round one. The Russian has not been on the court much in 2016 with a 1-5 mark at the ATP level. He’s also lost five of his last six first round matches at Wimbledon, so Sousa may have a shot to get his maiden Wimbledon win. The trickier match could come in round two where Saville or Novikov will be as a qualifier. Both have some game on grass and Saville beat Thiem in R1 back in 2014. Both would have a legitimate shot to upset Sousa. The third round looks the best case scenario for Sousa if he gets rolling. He would likely meet Thiem or perhaps a streaking Florian Mayer. That should be over and out for Sousa.

32.Lucas Pouille
Pouille lost his Wimbledon debut in 2015 and is short on grass court experience. Like 0-4 in main draws short on experience. A first round encounter with qualifier Marius Copil won’t be easy. His Romanian opponent has a big serve and confidence from making a Challenger final on grass this summer. The good news is Copil has never won a main draw match at Wimbledon, so Pouille might have a shot to avoid the upset. Round two could be tougher with Donald Young or Leonardo Mayer waiting. Mayer has made the fourth round in 2014 and the third round last year. Young is 0-5 in main draws at the All England Club. The second round seems a big possibility for Pouille to exit if Mayer is waiting.

Non-Seeded Dark Horses
Florian Mayer could turn this draw on its head in round one if he upsets Thiem. The oft-injured German looked rock solid in Halle, winning just his second ATP title. He also looked good the week prior in Stuttgart, where he lost to Federer in two tiebreak sets in the quarterfinals. Mayer made he quarters at Wimbledon in 2012, but has been one and done his last two trips. He’s got strong possibilities if he can get by Thiem.

The other name that really sticks out is Mikhail Youzhny. The Russian vet has found some rhythm in the grass court tuneups, making the quarters in Stuttgart and Nottingham. He has not been past round two in the last two seasons, but he is a danger, especially with the inexperience of Zverev to take advantage of possibly in round two. Fernando Verdasco may not get out of round one against Tomic, but he’s always a threat and would have an open draw if he can score the rare upset of the Aussie.

Quarter Predictions
This is one that could feature a ton of upheaval or could seed out to a Wawrinka-Thiem quarterfinal. It’s a difficult one to predict. The Pig still sees this one as more of a roller coaster with some upsets though. Don’t be surprised if this quarter winds up going to a double digit seed or if an unseeded player is in position to score a rare semifinal spot – think Del Potro, Mayer or Youzhny. Also, don’t mind Tomic is he turns in a rare good performance at a Slam.

Seed Report: Quarter #4

2. Andy Murray
Murray put the band back together by bringing Ivan Lendl back in to coach and promptly won the Aegon Championships at Queen’s Club in the pre-Wimbledon phase. Murray has gone 46-9 all-time in London and been very consistent here. He has made the semifinals or better in six of the last seven years. He has to feel good about a draw that features good players, but players with injury question marks or form question marks. His opener against Liam Broady should be relatively easy.

Truly, round four looks to be his first big test. He could find Nick Kyrgios or Feliciano Lopez there. The Scot is 14-0 versus those two. The seed opposite of him in this quarter is #7 Richard Gasquet. Gasquet looked out of sorts in his lone grass tuneup in Queen’s Club, but is a returning semifinalist. The Gasquet match-up has been comfortable enough for Murray with an 8-3 mark against the Frenchman. He beat him going away in four sets at Roland Garros and has beaten Gasquet twice at Wimbledon previously in 2008 and 2011. This quarter looks about as nice as Murray could have hoped for in order to get to another semifinal.

7. Richard Gasquet
Gasquet has two semifinal runs to his credit at Wimbledon in 2007 and 2015. He is 25-10 all-time. Last year’s run broke a poor spell from Gasquet who had not made it out of round two since 2013. He draws Aljaz Bedene to open this year. Bedene scored his lone Wimbledon main draw win against Stepanek last year, but is normally over matched against top tier players on this surface. Gasquet, assuming good health, should prevail. Round two would see Marcel Granollers or Victor Estrella Burgos against the 7th seed. Advantage Gasquet. Round three gets tricky with 24th seed Viktor Troicki or perhaps Vasek Pospisil. Pospisil has troubled Gasquet a bit in the past, but needs to find some better consistency to win in that spot.

If Gasquet succeeds in round three, the seeds who could be waiting are #12 Jp-Wilfried Tsonga or #12 John Isner. Both are dangerous on grass. Tsonga needs to prove health and Isner needs to prove he can get out of round one, where he faces Baghdatis. Gasquet looks a decent shot to get to at least the fourth round and perhaps further.

12. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
The last time we saw Tsonga, he was retiring from the French Open due to a groin injury. We have not seen him since. He is a veteran player who has done this before though, so the lack of match play should not be a major issue. He starts with Inigo Cervantes. The Spaniard has a grand total of one grass court win in his career. Tsonga has a 24-8 record at Wimbledon alone with two semifinal runs in 2011 and 2012. If healthy, he’s good there and probably in round two where he would face the winner of Taro Daniel versus Juan Monaco.

Round three is the likeliest trouble spot with the winner of the Isner-Baghdatis first round match probable to be the opponent. Baghdatis is the friendlier match-up for Tsonga with the 12th seed at 7-1 against the Cypriot. That includes wins in both Grand Slams this year, although Baghdatis did push Tsonga to five sets at Roland Garros in round two. A date with Isner could spell doom for Tsonga who is 1-3 against the American, although they have not met since 2012.

15. Nick Kyrgios
The Aussie has found grass to his liking with a 7-2 record at Wimbledon in two trips and 9-5 mark overall on the surface. Kyrgios has made the quarterfinals and the fourth round in his two Wimbledon experiences to-date. He lost a tough three setter to Raonic in his lone pre-Wimbledon prep at Queen’s Club. His first round opponent, Radek Stepanek, will be tough. The serve and volley specialist knows how to win on these courts, but Kyrgios’ serve likely makes a difference for the win.

That win could lead to one of the most entertaining matches of the tournament potentially with wildcard Dustin Brown as the possible foe. Brown has scalps of Hewitt in 2013 and perhaps more famously, Rafael Nadal, last year at Wimbledon. Brown’s quirky play will test Kyrgios’ patience and could lead to another monumental upset. If Kyrgios avoids that pitfall, he could find 22nd seed Feliciano Lopez in round three. That will be another tough serve and volley test. The reward for all of that would be getting Andy Murray in round four. That seems the end point for the Aussie, but don’t be surprised if it comes a round or two earlier.

18. John Isner
Despite a tough match-up with Marcos Baghdatis to open, Isner should feel good about his 6-0 record against Baggy. Baghdatis has played him tough, but rarely been able to hold up against that big serve. Isner will be looking to improve on a 7-7 record at Wimbledon. He has never made it past round three, somewhat surprising considering how serve-centric grass has become. He could have a shot to change that this year with Tsonga perhaps as his main threat to prevent that. With Tsonga short on match play and on the losing end of the head-to-head with Isner, the Big American could find himself in round four if he has his serve humming. 68 aces in two Queen’s Club matches says he just might.

22. Feliciano Lopez
The lefty from Spain is a three time quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, but has not progressed that far since 2011. Once considered a sheik sleeper pick at the All England Club, Lopez has gone just 3-6 on grass the last two years. His volley game is still delicious and his serve can still be a weapon, but he has had a tough time turning that into big wins on grass at this stage of his career. He opens against another veteran renown for his grass court game in Rajeev Ram. Ram however has not ever produced at Wimbledon. He is 1-3 and appearing in the main draw for just the second time. It’s a tricky call, but Lopez should fight through.

The second round would see Fabio Fognini or Federico Delbonis. Fognini is 7-7 at Wimbledon, so the experience edge goes to him. Still, there is zero confidence in Fab Mode not showing up despite Delbonis’ lightweight status on grass. He’s 0-4. Either way, Lopez should fancy a shot at the third round. He could see Kyrgios or possibly an upset minded Dustin Brown. Lopez will be up against if it is Kyrgios and could be headed out.

25. Viktor Troicki
The Serb is 13-7 in his career at Wimbledon with last year’s fourth round finish his second trip that far here. Troicki comes in 0-2 in the build-up tournaments, but could be a sneaky pick in London. He opens against qualifier Tristan Lamasine. He should be good to get through against the Frenchman. Round two could turn tougher if Vasek Pospisil wins. The Canadian faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the opening round. Pospisil has struggled for consistency, but has the game to win on this surface as last year’s quarterfinal run showed. If Troicki survives, the third round could be it as he would face Gasquet.

26. Benoit Paire
Paire has gone 5-5 at Wimbledon all-time. The Frenchman lost his only grass court prep at Queen’s Club to Bedene in three sets. He gets qualifier Franko Skugor first-up. A win should be in the cards for Paire. The second round would pit him against the survivor of John Millman versus Albert Montanes. That realistically should set him up for the third round. That is where Murray would come in and Paire’s time in London would end.

Non-Seeded Dark Horses
Dustin Brown will draw a lot of attention due to his past history of upsets here. He has that flair for the dramatic here and could find it again in round two. Also keep eyes on Vasek Pospisil, Radek Stepanek and Marcos Baghdatis. The last two have difficult first round match-ups, but are both capable of springing a seeded upset. Pospisil simply needs confidence and a few early wins could do that. Don’t expect any of these guys to really throw things off late in the draw though, they will all likely be gone by the fourth round at best.

Draw Predictions
This is Murray’s draw to lose. He certainly has a couple of potential tough outs to get through, but historical he matches up against the best players in this draw extremely well. It would not be shocking to see another double digit seed in position to get to the quarters here either. A healthy Tsonga or Isner could fill the bill.