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Big Play Wednesday

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Posted: #1
YTD 16-12  up 17.58 units
 
by far the largest play of the season for me:
 
Benjamin Becker @ -180 to win 3 units  -  Becker is coming off a win in Germany and should look to extend his great play into South Africa. While the fact that Van Der Merwe is from SA made me a little weary of betting against him on his own courts, but he is just not on Becker's level. In Germany, Becker only dropped one set the entire tourney and beat players that we much better than VDM. The biggest reason is that not only has VDM not beaten anybody on Becker's level, but he doesn;t even play them at all. Last year he only played 2 matches against players in the top 100 and was easily dismissed.
 
BOL everybody
 
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Posted: #2
I with ya on this, gonna parlay it with monaco to get a better payout but best of luck
 
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Posted: #3
going to scrap the becker play, something about it that i don't like
 
instead i am going to take:
 
Ljubicic @ -175 to win 2 units  -  Ivan is in good form these days and Zagreb is his favourite tourny to play in. Also the fact that Troicki is a Serb is not going to help out his cause in Croatia, i doubt he wants win this match himself with everything he is going to have to put up with.
 
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Posted: #4
Yeah he should take this one IMO for the home crowd. He's in really good form, he gave Tsonga a run for his money in the AO.
 
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Posted: #5
Becker will do his thing no point of him losing to an amatuer
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
VDM player will have some edge with the weather and the fast conditions that will favour his big serve. Becker has the better shots overall and the bigger experience, but he is also unprepared for the event as he must fly to South Africa on Monday and will need time to get over the jet-lag and to get used to the heavy conditions.
 
But I'm on Becker too, small stake. Good luck!
 
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Posted: #7
It's always tricky when I guy just won a tourney...
 
Is he full of confidence and looking to ride the wave into his next tourney?
 
Or is he is fatigued, with little time to adjust to the new courts for the week?
 
I like the fact that they gave Becker a Wed start, so he has had atleast one fulll day of practice is you assume Mon was a travel day...
 
His opponent Van Der Mere is atrocious...and Becker is a somewhat better player then his ranking, so my gut says Beckers is serious about getting his ranking back up to where it used to be, and a small ATL level tourney like this is a perfect opportunity...
 
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Posted: #8
ATP level
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
world class avatar popo  
 
"well I had sex with your wife!" ........"his wife's in a coma...."
 
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Posted: #10
Addded Veic in play at +300 for .5 unit
 
i think the fix is in on this one
 
MVP
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:

Addded Veic in play at +300 for .5 unit
 
i think the fix is in on this one

incredible call.  this one has smelled of fix since set 2 started.  i would be shocked if korolev wins now.  he could have easily won already.
 
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Posted: #12
Took Becker on this one....
 
Merwe is actually pretty decent.
 
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Posted: #13
Addded Veic in play at +300 for .5 unit
 
if that wasn't a fixed match, I don't know what is. Korolev up 5-2 with 1 serve in 2nd set TB and blows it. Then down 5-4 with Veic serving for the match he blows 3 BPs.
 
Good thing I layed off Becker, too many things were going against him in that match
 
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Posted: #14
now I need to worry about Ljubi coming through, he is playing like shit though. The only thing he has going for him is that the umpire is giving him points left, right and centre.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:

Addded Veic in play at +300 for .5 unit
 
if that wasn't a fixed match, I don't know what is. Korolev up 5-2 with 1 serve in 2nd set TB and blows it. Then down 5-4 with Veic serving for the match he blows 3 BPs.
 
Good thing I layed off Becker, too many things were going against him in that match

that match had the look of the guy that doesn't mind tanking a match but he looked like "this guy sucks so bad he can't even make it look good"

 
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Posted: #16
wow ljubi broken again in the 2nd, i don't think he has ran this entire match
 
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Posted: #17
can not believe that veic match.  unbelievable that this happens.  and little ole me loses money on it.  i guess that's what i get for betting on guys that have been suspicious of it before.
nice layoff on the becker match.  i have lub/cilic in a parlay.  i hope he comes thru for us.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by gus1689:

that match had the look of the guy that doesn't mind tanking a match but he looked like "this guy sucks so bad he can't even make it look good"

you'd think with that review of the 45 matches recently announced, Korolev would at least learn how to throw a match without it being noticeable. I was watching the scores on Bet365, so I could see the odds change as well. The odds got up to +2500 for Veic in the 2nd set TB, can;t wait for the commission to see that 10x the normal betting amount was placed at that time. All from Russia

 
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Posted: #19
Ljubi with a break to take it to a third set. Hes actually moving now, the first set he looked like a 6'5 statue of a pumpkin
 
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Posted: #20
Ljubicic  
 
this match basically marks Ljub as fade material for the rest of his pathetic career. Up a break in the 3rd set at his fav tourny in his home country against a rival and he can't pull it out
 
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Posted: #21
adding Potito at +175 for .5 unit in play
 
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Posted: #22
Win 2/4/09 12:15pm  ATP Tennis  203 Viktor Troicki +159 vs Ivan Ljubicic 
 
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Posted: #23
Korolev match wasn't fixed, the guy has been doing this for the past year.   Dude can't close,  he's like a 8th inning guy thats tries the 9th inning and gets rocked.   I wasn't shocked in the least with that effort
 
 
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Posted: #24
nice cal on Troicki MVP
 
Starace what a waste of .5 unit. Took the bet with Starace up a break and having 2 BPs, figuring he had the 2nd set in the bag and it would come down to the 3rd. Forgot he was Italian though, as he proceded to lose the next 4 games.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Went from your play of the year to no play.  Nice.

" Once again - that is something that would have been helpful, YESTERDAY!"


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