Big Winner For Tomorrow - ATP Monte Carlo

Auger-Aliassime (-220) vs. Londero

This isn't one to overthink. Actually it is. All the hype behind FAA, Londero beat him on CLAY last July, Londero a good clay courter, FAA hasn't had a match on clay in about 45 days... Aliassime's line is being held sturdy, it has to. Given those reasons, he can't be inflated too much here. We can all agree FAA has turned corners, and is breaking out before our eyes. He's a talent sure, but he's not other wordly. What is other worldly about him is his mentality. The sky is the limit for this kid.

But Whoa! Reasons! Londero beat him in July (Ffff that might as well been an eternity ago). Let's breakdown Londero's body of work since that match:

He posts up in Europe to play Clay in Sweden & Finland. He goes 5-2, beating who he is supposed to beat, losing to Laaksonen an Griekspoor.

Washed in USO Qual by Bagnis.

Back to Europe to Clay. He goes 5-3, no notable wins. Expected 2-0 loses to Garin, took a set from Hurkacz and still lost (who recently only started played clay that yr), and lost to Baldi. 

NOW back to South America.. his home. To sum it up ----- Tons of matches. No notable win, expected loses. Except for his great run in Cordoba! He beat Sonego, Delbonis, Pella, Jarry. Amazing tennis by him.. but make no mistake, that is in Argentina.

Since then, not a single notable win. Berlocq is only a name now, which only helped make this line possible. That, and the fact Londero was able to dispatch a Fabbiano who is completely out of form himself.

This is a banger. Whether FAA plays stone tight, and gets him with a 6-4, 6-4 "professional" win, or really puts on a show and clips him by 7-8 games. 

FAA has been prepping on clay for a minute now, and it's his preferred surface.

GL everyone.

FAA is a star in his own world, playing an imaginary opponent. There is not much variance in Londero's game, and certainly nothing that FAA hasn't seen or dealt with. 

He has to be up for the moment. He has to play "well" in this spot, and it's an easy win. Then he'll put on a great show vs Zverev and ultimately lose. The trap match will be next tournament where everyone expects him to dispatch a crafty veteran, and everyone remembers that there's levels to this s8hit, and knocks everyone down a peg on him. -- Way she goes.

Smooth sailing tomorrow though! 

Dream start however the kid still has trouble serving for sets(as do most players).  Still feel good about him in straights.

Kid can’t close a set on his serve. That is now 4 sets in a row he has been broken serving for set(both vs Isner) has cruised otherwise. Urgh

Nerves 100%. The nice thing is, the chances are plentiful when riding these mentally strong youngsters on their ascension. This is especially prevalent on clay. Zverev, Thiem, Goffin, ect... it was not long ago these guys were albeit less refined, but MUCH more enthused. But being green, they were often in the -200/-250 range when facing "ABC gatekeepers" (no variance - they play a solved game at maximum ability). FAA is having that run now.. Soon these lines will be opening at -600/-700 against opponents in which the outcome is decided upon FAA's stick.

Hopefully someone out there made a buck. I'll go back into lurkmode. GL everyone.