Clay season 2013

I will play if safe today after tennis betting was kind with us on Friday and I will only take two bets which I see clear value on, but it will be mainly a trading and watching tennis day to see if I can find good bets for next rounds (I will be around in twitter most of the day if you want to discuss anything regarding the tennis matches):

Wawrinka vs Janowicz over 38.5 games @1.93 – ATP RG – (Pinnacle)  5/10

Weather forecasts report a sunny day today in Paris, so courts will play quicker and those are good news for this bet imo. I don´t think Stan will win in straight sets, JJ is playing too well for that and the way these two serve, at least one set should be a tie breaker imo.

Dimitrov to win at least 1 set off Djokovic @2.20 – ATP RG – (Pinnacle) 4/10

As I wrote in ATP Main Draw preview this is the mouthwatering match he were expecting in R3. Grigor Dimitrov has already showed this season he can compete (at least for a while) with the best and I believe he  will be good enough to win one of the first two sets today but Novak will eventually grind him down and fitness/experience will prevail in the end.

GL folks

Just one play for today. I can´t resist these odds:

Suárez to beat Errani @4.80 – WTA RG – (Betfair) 2/10

As I wrote in WTA Main Draw preview I think Carla has an excellent chance to shine this tournament. Errani is a very tough rival, but I´m convinced Carla has the tools to defeat her. It will be a huge challenge, and I´m not sure Carla´s mind will let her deliver, but I trust on Carla´s ability and I´m happy to take the gamble at these odds.

Two picks today:

Kuznetsova +6.5 games against Williams @2.04 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Simple reason, Sveta is one of the few who can impose her game con clay at times against this SW, and she´s playing well enough to do it and cover this line in my opinion

Tsonga to beat Federer 3-1 or 3-2 @3.5  (bet proportionally on 3-1 and 3-2 outcomes at @6.50 Bet365 and @7.50 Tipico)  4/10

As I said in ATP Main Draw Preview, this was my expected QF and after having watched them last week, I fancy Tsonga in this one and I also feel it will be an epic one. I don´t think JW can routine Roger in 3 sets, Roger should be too good for that and JW´s lapses will cost him a set at some point, but I smell he´s going to surprise a lot of people tomorrow and will get the win, that´s why I took this approach of ruling out of my bet the straight sets win. I think Tsonga iss playing as well as he´s ever played on clay at the moment and Roger is more vulnerable now to heavy hitting which exploits his movement as he´s no longer the awesome mover he once was.

GL folks

One tip in WTA:

Jankovic +1.5 sets against Sharapova @2.50 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I have the feeling this one will be tighter than most people think, but although I think JJ has a chance to win because she´s playing very well and has come through a tough draw, I trust a lot more Maria in key points or if this one goes to 3, therefore I will take the safer option of Jankovic winning 1 set.

And two small attempts in ATP with the same reasoning: I think if both favs nick the first set, it will be quite difficult for Haas and Wawrinka because both favs are excellent frontrunners and Stan and Tommy should have less endurance bc of recent 5 setters, some small niggle in SW´s case and 35 years old in TH´s case, but I think they will be competitive for a while and I believe these odds of more than 64% for both Nadal&Djokovic to win the opening set are too much, so I will split my punt in two, taking both underdogs to start winning the 1st set:

Wawrinka to win 1st set against Nadal @5.69 (Pinnacle) 2/10

Haas to win 1st set against Djokovic @4.54 (Pinnacle) 2/10

GL folks

One bet for each WTA semifinal:

Azarenka to beat Sharapova @2.10 – WTA RG – (Pinnacle) 5/10

First of all, let me remind you that I´m a stubborn punter, (those who know me already know this long time ago) and, despite stats and numbers point otherwise, I still think Azarenka´s best on clay is better than Sharapova´s best, and in a GS SF I would expect both to play close to that “best” level.

Another thing that has made me pull the trigger here is that Vika has improved in last two rounds her 1st serve percentage a lot which should be key in today´s match against Sharapova´s booming returns, specially off 2nd serves. If she can repeat that I firmly believe she´s a clear favourite, because she moves better, she has better defence and she´s more reliable from both wings without losing an ounce of depth, and although Maria has a bit of more firepower, this is neutralized on clay, so I don´t think it will have significant weight in the outcome of this match

Errani +7 games against Serena Williams @1.93 – WTA RG – (Pinnacle) 3/10

This is just based on gut feeling, although I know Serena is beasting, Sara Errunrunruni is all grit, all heart and she won´t stop fighting until the last point. I don´t think she will make less than 5 games, although I could be wrong because SW has the game to blow her off court, of course

Two small attempts, in both semifinals I expect big battles, I´ve thought about going with the safer option of over 4.5 sets in both, but in the end I´ve decided to side with the two players who offer more guarantees if the match goes to a decider imo:

Nadal to win 3-2 against Djokovic @6 – ATP RG – (Betfair) 2/10

In a 5th set, in a sunny and hot day on clay, I think Nadal has a advantage here. Just because of confidence on the surface, confidence on the conditions and confidence acquired because of the number of wins on it in this tournament: He´s simply not used to lose in Chatrier whereas Nole has always being kicked out from the tournament year after year there.

Tsonga to win 3-2 against Ferrer @7  – ATP RG – (Betfair) 2/10

Simple here. Give me the proven clutch player, who feeds off the adrenaline that crowd inyects him to make him a much better player, in the form of his life against another one that has often failed miserably when he was about to cross the finishing line in many of the most important matches of his career

GL folks

Just wanted to say that I read your analysis everyday and that I think you are an extremely valuable member of the forum, not only because you are winning, but because you have the correct approach. It is all about value, which is what so many people don't understand. If you continue betting where there is value you will make money in the longterm, even though you will inevitably have cold streaks.

Well done and I hope to see you sticking around even after the Clay Season is over.

Small attempt here:

Mahut/Llodra to beat Bryan/Bryan @4.34 (Pinnacle) 3/10

I don´t know why these odds keep drifting. Llodra asked the trainer in SF but it was just for retaping and they won easily, Bryans are more vulnerable on clay and I think the French couple are a very dangerous one and they will run the twins very close today

GL folks

Weather forecast offers a great betting spot today in my opinion.  Damp conditons because of rainy weather should fit Ferrer much better. It´s never been Rafa´s cup of tea and if nerves don´t overwhelm David, it should be a tougher final than most people think. Main bet will be on over 3.5 sets and a small “jackpot” one on Rafa in 5:

Over 3.5 sets in the match @2.17 (Pinnacle)   5/10

Nadal to win 3-2 @8.80 (Betfair) 1/10

Good luck, folks