Coco Gauff/Ons Jabeur...

Is Coco really 3.5x better than Ons? Seems like there is some value in this line. Thoughts?

Value bet for sure on Jaba.

My 2 cents.

Outside of 2022, when she made two finals at significant clay court events (won @Madrid, lost @Rome, both times benefitting from very extremely beneficial draws, for instance facing a qualifier for an opponent in her semi-final at Madrid), Jabeur has never gotten past the QF stage of any clay court event (15 total events, past QF stage twice).

Gauff's clay court pedigree is having made the QF stage at the French Open as many times (3) as she's made the QF stage in all of the other 3 Slams combined (3 times), and of course she lost the 2022 final to the women's version of Nadal (no shame in that).

The historical mis-match of ability of this surface is enough to put me personally off any Jabeur pre-match bet. I want to see her showing she's capable of doing something against Gauff before I think she's worth my $. Getting lesser odds in that instance would be a price paying to know for a fact she's actually capable of overcoming her average clay court record against someone who is clearly superior on the surface (given Coco's success & maturity since that FO final loss to Swiatek in 2022, I believe she's a chance here to dethrone the Pole's RG dominance. I'd give Jabeur no chance of doing the same if she were to win this QF. Swiatek beat the Tunisian 2 & 2 in that 2022 Rome final).

@sandique

Points well taken. Thank you. 

Crowd should be on Jabeur side , maybe slower conditions may help her after rains.. However Coco is as somebody said above 3,5 x better . Powerful girl. Maybe consider double faults of COCO?

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Jabuer 5 seems sensible

Ons did win the first set and then dropped the next too. Arbitrage would have been possible in this match.

No point in starting a thread for this observation, so I'll post it in here:

Paolini's last 5 set wins have come with the following scorelines (latest last):

6-1, 6-0, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2.

The windy conditions definitely seem to be screwing with Rybakina's game. A lot of unforced errors with overhit balls.