********Dog Discussion July 26th-August 1st*********

I will gamble, but I can't play cards. The way I see it is with sports betting, you at least have a 50/50 chance to win. With cards the payout is better, but you also have high odds. I do every once in a while fuck around with $20-$30 in the sportsbook casinos. But I can't do it for any substantial amount. If I could just learn limitations when it comes to my Jekyll and Hyde moments I would be a good bettor.

Yeah I can understand the logic behind fading Gasquet. He is unreliable and does bottle it when a match gets tight. Definitely possible that Brands' serve keeps him in it, but if Gasquet plays anything like his best tennis he has too much class for him.

I like DGT as well but his odds aren't anything special.

Davydenko needs some wins and even if he isn't motivated surely he will struggle to lose to a player like Robert.

 

 

I think you would be good at poker, especially at lower stakes where there are tons of fish. It is definitely way more profitable than sports betting which is why there are so many more pro poker players than pro sports handicappers. In sports it is 50-50 but in poker you can put yourself in a position to get called on a huge bet and double up as an 85% favorite, or get a guy all in on a draw one card left and you a 95% fave to double up, etc.

OK here is my card:

Skugor EVEN risk 3.5

Brands half unit risked +245 to win 1.2. I am working on ways to buy out of this. You guys have me convinced, and I was not that strong on it to begin with. anyone even considering tailing this card please disregard this pick.

Chiudinelli +150 half unit risked to win 0.75

Makarova +135 half unit risked to win 0.67

Voegele +135 1.5 risked to win a little over 2

Rodionova +200 1 unit risked to win 2

Sevastova -115 one unit risked to win 0.87

Davydenko Querrey parlay, one unit risked to win 0.67

Davydenko-JCF half unit to win 0.32

Davydenko-Traver half unit to win 0.42

Krumm +355 half unit to win 1.78 (I usually bet a unit on her per match but this one should be ultra tough for her, so only doing a half unit. still no way in hell am I counting her out. she fights so hard she makes Oudin look like a damn wimp in comparison! see: her beating Safina in French on one fucking leg)

Obviously Davydenko is huge as surely some of those faves I parlayed him with will win. And Skugor. Might put a half unit on Dolgo later since his odds are shooting up so fast, just to have a cushion and still 3 units profit on the move if I am correct.

I will probably hedge out of my Brands bet and some of the Rodionova bet. I still think Rodionova has a shot vs an overrated Pironkova so will certainly not buy out of it completely.

OK in fact just locked it in: half unit hedge bet: Traver-Pironkova-Gasquet, wins 0.8. so if Traver wins I am covered on Brands and almost half my Rodionova bet. I have enough invested in Davydenko.

Should be it for me today. Seriously thinking about Sweeting +165 for later because Marcos clearly does not give a shit about tennis right now. That is judging by his results, on court demeaonr the last few months, his twitter comments (after losing to Lacko at Wimbledon: "Now that that is finally over I can go get a relaxing back massage!"), and how when he said he was going training a month ago he went water skiing instead.

ugh I was going to small today but with Skugor and DGT I went crazy. If they don't win it will be a bad day. I am totalling up my units bet and shit and I will post it in a few. I have to go grow a tail brb.

you always go crazy but it usually works out so

ugh I had to retype this shit because of a fucking logan's ad wiped it out when I was almost done

DGT various lines -185 to -235 35 units

Skugor various lines from +110 19 units

Voegele +115 1.9 units

Parlays

DGT -200
Skugor -115
6.25 units

DGT -200
Sevastova -102
1 unit

DGT -200
Skugor +100
1 unit

I don't see myself putting anymore down unless I have a Jekyll and Hyde moment. Good luck guys.

adding 5 units on Sevastova tailing the very talented Pure Echoes. I always give props to people who I tail if it wasn't already a pick I had. And even though I did have Sevastova already, I am increasing it based on his play.

if I lose everything I will be down to 25 units in my accounts. So LET'S FUCKING GET THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah he is good. was already on it and am comforted knowing he has the same pick. Got enough invested today though, about ten units.

I like your card Jarret and think you might sweep the board. Biggest question is Voegele. The rest I am pretty sure you sweep, which would obviously make this a mega day for you. I am surprised you ended up putting more on DGT than Skugor. Now I am more confident in his chances.

Too bad Skugor is probably going to be the last lie move like this this week. Usually not much shady happens the last few days of a tournament. Cannot wait until next week when I will be ready to unload on movements like this.

a Dell, runs Windows. Do Macs in general not let you download poker software or just the model you have? Because if none of them do that would be laughable.

im not sure to be honest. my friend has a mac and has every poker site on his computer. ive tried downloading a bunch of sites and none of them work, even called apple and they said it should work. i guess its just a problem with my computer, and not with all of apple.

I can lol. He chokes a lot this year, that is why I originally bet against him and despite the hedge I am still hoping Brands hits.

guess were going against each other on this one then. are you watching the feed?

lets see how feel fuck this one up 

lmao 40-0 and hes going to lose again. brands will win this because gasquet cant take advantage of his opportunities. i know its not over but good call bp 

yeah amazing, him 6 break chances brands 0 and Brands still wins the set. two 0-40s blown right? I saw the second one but was away from computer when he had the other 3 BPs.

I won't be mad at forum for planting seed of doubt. the stats were compelling and this place has served me well more often than not historically, plus it only puts a half unit dent in my day... .... if Brands wins.

there you go, he breaks. now it probably goes three sets. I would watch the feed but since it is only a hedged half unit bet I would rather play video games. i would play poker but those fuckers have the fix out against me so not today.

i didnt realize gasquet was so bad at closing the deal. he obviously should have won the first set, i mean he essentially had 6 set points and didnt win any. and just now he was up 30-0 and couldnt even get it to deuce 

where do you guys watch the live feeds

livescorehunter . com has links to a feed 

3-5 0-15 if Gasquet breaks here and serves first in the third I think it means GSM

but serving second, well, if Brands holds long enough he could easily choke serving to stay in it. 15-30...