Emma Navarro vs Peyton Stearns Aus Open, line is eye-opening

At Fanduel, ML is -134. I would have expected it to be -250 -300 or so. 

World #8 Emma owns Peyton 4-1 overall, and 12 games to 5 in their career. I think Emma hasnt been in top form of recent but she did make it to the Adelaide Quarter Final recently. Now she goes into this tournament, the first grand slam tourney for 2025, I think she levels up her game a notch. 

Peyton has taken Sabalenka and I think thats what the bookies are thinking, is Peyton is rising quickly, and she may be, but I think Emma should be too much and cruise in 2 sets. 

I'll go with Navarro ML to play it safe

correction* 

Peyton has taken Sabalenka to the brink* (almost defeated her) 

This line is screaming trap as you noted

Just my 2 cents, but i agree with 

@monkeebooger

Feels trap-ish...Emma has looked a bit out of sorts lately, Stearns ok to solid form  

I don't bet on the women like i do men's tennis.  If anything i'd expect a competitive match so maybe 'total games' or 'total sets' Over would be more appropriate?

@BigMick87

 Why not bet on women more? I feel as the womens game is more fierce

Got many top players who play fierce competition 

Like Sabalenka, Paolini, Swiatek, Gauff, Navarro, Keys, etc...

@HuskyNation1

 I would tread very lightly with Navarro until she can prove that she's out of the slump she's been in since leaving the US Open. She has been mostly terrible since then getting knocked out in the first round in 3 of the 4 tour level tournaments she's played, all losses against players with less firepower than Stearns including a player just coming out of a WTA record losing streak. In an attempt to regain form she also took the rare step of entering a challenger event as a top 10 player but couldn't even make it past the quarterfinals as a HUGE favorite to win the entire tournament.

The one tour level tournament she advanced in was the quarterfinal you mentioned but she had a bye in that tournament so it only took one win to get there but at least it was a quality win against Alexandrova. On the other hand, Stearns has some nice quality wins during the same time period and her only losses came against good players.

I will likely be on Stearns tonight. For me personally, the recent form of the two players is a much more compelling factor in this match than the lopsided H2H which were mostly during ITF events as younger players.

@HuskyNation1

 It's always seemed to be more volatile, especially betting on players.  One player can be dominant in 1 set and then fold in the next 2 sets, i know that happens in men's as well but feels more prevalent in women's tennis.  I guess some may say there is an advantage to use there, but it's too hectic for me.  

i pick my spots, last time i bet on Navarro was when she beat Coco at US Open

@BigMick87

 I wont ever forget that one beating coco. I thought that was the turn of the tide and would be the boost emma needed going forward. But yeah the last several tournaments she has been on a slippery slope and has me questioning what she really is. A top tier player who can win titles or just a good player that can hang with anyone but not good enough to consistently beat the best and beat lower tier players

@HuskyNation1

 I think ill scale down on my bet thinking and go small on emma. Peyton has been good lately and the more i read around the interwebs, seems as peyton should give emma a run for her money. I see emma has been knocked out early in opening rounds, so it is possible peyton can knock her out early. I just think being the first big tournament of the year and a grand slam tourney, its motivation for emma to not get blasted out of the Aussie Open early