The problem in betting Djokovic is that 99% he will lose an eventual 5th set vs Rafa tomorrow. Rafa spent something like 40% less time on court and the final will start only few hours after Djokovic played his last point today. There is no way Djokovic wins a 5th set tomorrow.
Federer today had like 35 winners and 69 unforced errors, that's a pathetic ratio, really Djokovic should have taken the match much earlier than the fifth, he choked in the 1st and the 3rd getting broken at 5-6 to 0 both times despite being as good or maybe better than Federer. He was clutch in the 5th but Nadal is another beast, he will make no errors and will be fresher. Bad mix for Nole.
If I were to bet Djokovic I would consider a 3-1 bet on him only, hard to see him straight setting Nadal and impossible to imagine Djokovic taking a 5th set vs Rafa. Much better odds than +275. No bet pre match here, maybe something in play, if Djoko looks tired, I will clubber Nadal.
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The problem in betting Djokovic is that 99% he will lose an eventual 5th set vs Rafa tomorrow. Rafa spent something like 40% less time on court and the final will start only few hours after Djokovic played his last point today. There is no way Djokovic wins a 5th set tomorrow.
Federer today had like 35 winners and 69 unforced errors, that's a pathetic ratio, really Djokovic should have taken the match much earlier than the fifth, he choked in the 1st and the 3rd getting broken at 5-6 to 0 both times despite being as good or maybe better than Federer. He was clutch in the 5th but Nadal is another beast, he will make no errors and will be fresher. Bad mix for Nole.
If I were to bet Djokovic I would consider a 3-1 bet on him only, hard to see him straight setting Nadal and impossible to imagine Djokovic taking a 5th set vs Rafa. Much better odds than +275. No bet pre match here, maybe something in play, if Djoko looks tired, I will clubber Nadal.
Nadal has been building towards this moment for awhile. He has wanted the US Open title ever since he won the AO. He wants the career slam and wants a chance at the Rafa slam in Melbourne.
The guy is a clutch performer and is a grinder. Joker coming off a 5 settor needs rain. If not Nadal will grind out the match. He will not make the errors Fed did and will pressure more Joker service games.
Nadal is on a mission...and I suspect it becomes complete tomorrow
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Nadal has been building towards this moment for awhile. He has wanted the US Open title ever since he won the AO. He wants the career slam and wants a chance at the Rafa slam in Melbourne.
The guy is a clutch performer and is a grinder. Joker coming off a 5 settor needs rain. If not Nadal will grind out the match. He will not make the errors Fed did and will pressure more Joker service games.
Nadal is on a mission...and I suspect it becomes complete tomorrow
Just a couple of quick thoughts... and let it be known that I am mainly going to wait for live betting with this one... my lean is Djoker at these odds but I would not put more than a unit on him prematch. And even though I understand the hard selling being done right now just know that at these odds a cash with Nadal is absolutely nothing to brag about.
1. The fatigue factor for Djokovic is a bit overstated I think. I think he is very fit contrary to perception.
His problem was never fitness. His problem is that he has severe allergy issues that makes the heat really get to him. The heat should not be a factor today from what I am reading.
I also think he overacts sometimes and this leads to the false perception that he is not fit. This guy will look gassed as hell then run like a gazelle in a 40 stroke rally. He is very young. We all saw how well Nadal played in the AO final vs Fed 2009 in a similar situation after the longest match in the tournament's history in his SF....
But there is a huge difference: Nadal played a grueling 5 setter while Djoker played a 5 setter that in terms of games played was actually more like a four set match. How taxing is a 6-1 and 6-2 set, really? Especially with Fed in meltdown mode. He only took part in three taxing sets. Fed's error count was insane and many of the rallies ended quickly on one of his many shanks. Just do not think it was as draining a match as people contend.
2. I do not think we can throw out Djoker's past success over Nadal just like that. 7-2 on hard, won the last three and really pulverized Nadal in those matches. Even in their YEC match (where Nadal said he was healthy) when Djoker was totally jaded about tennis after overplaying an extreme amount, he still won in two sets. In the two matches they played before that when Djoker was more fresh and motivated, he killed him.
He choked vs Fed not long ago in Cincy when he could have won the match. With the stakes raised at the US Open he did not make the same mistake. I think he can raise his level vs Rafa as well.
Let's not forget how Djoker shocked us all by pushing Nadal to the limits on clay last year when Nadal was around -800. That and the hard court domination to me prove beyond a doubt that he matches up well against Nadal. He is nowhere near as mentally tough but in terms of raw talent I think of them as close to equal.
3. Nadal's past history at the US Open is still relevant.
People should not let what he has done the last two slams be a big factor here, because the grass at Wimbledon the second week makes it very close to the qualities of a clay court. Rafa himself admitted it at the time. The first week when the grass was still fast he nearly lost to Petzchner and was pushed to five by Haase.
In this tournament he has dominated for the most part but look at his draw. It is ridiculously easy even for a #1 seed. Even with that draw Gabashvilli took him to multiple tiebreaks and Istomin had a 5-1 lead in the breaker. Verdasco lead 4-2 until he double faulted twice in one game and basically melted down to hand the break back, predictably fading from there. Even Lopez pushed Nadal a bit in his third set vs him, also in the first set blew a 0-40 opportunity.
My point is that he has not been invulnerable even with this super weak draw. With these type of odds you would need borderline perfection to justify laying the wood.
Nadal has only ever beaten one player at the US Open in the top ten in his whole career, and that was headcase Verdasco a few days ago. That is just not much history to go off of to lay this kind of juice against the #3 in the world who has historically dominated him on fast surfaces and is in excellent form this tournament.
You can lay less than half as much juice (I believe) on Djoker to win a set than Nadal to win the match and to me that is the much safer bet. People think this is going to be another blowout but I definitely think Nadal will lose at least one set today and that puts the value on Djoker at this line. The over is also a play. But to say the only play here is Nadal given all the evidence against that is a bit ridiculous IMHO.
An extra 10 mph on his serve changes things but it is not enough to justify this juice, and other than that I think he is playing about as well as he did in his peak of 09 when he won the Aussie Open, and as Verdasco showed he was not invulnerable then either. Nadal will probably make his statement today but I think win or lose, Djoker will make one too: That on a hardcourt he will almost always be the biggest challenge to Nadal of his generation. Murray would have barely been a dog to Nadal if they met here and I always thought Djokovic was an even worse matchup for Nadal on a hardcourt, so to me the quantum leap from the close to even line Murray would have netted to these monster odds when Djoker might well be the bigger challenge anyway seems very off.
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Just a couple of quick thoughts... and let it be known that I am mainly going to wait for live betting with this one... my lean is Djoker at these odds but I would not put more than a unit on him prematch. And even though I understand the hard selling being done right now just know that at these odds a cash with Nadal is absolutely nothing to brag about.
1. The fatigue factor for Djokovic is a bit overstated I think. I think he is very fit contrary to perception.
His problem was never fitness. His problem is that he has severe allergy issues that makes the heat really get to him. The heat should not be a factor today from what I am reading.
I also think he overacts sometimes and this leads to the false perception that he is not fit. This guy will look gassed as hell then run like a gazelle in a 40 stroke rally. He is very young. We all saw how well Nadal played in the AO final vs Fed 2009 in a similar situation after the longest match in the tournament's history in his SF....
But there is a huge difference: Nadal played a grueling 5 setter while Djoker played a 5 setter that in terms of games played was actually more like a four set match. How taxing is a 6-1 and 6-2 set, really? Especially with Fed in meltdown mode. He only took part in three taxing sets. Fed's error count was insane and many of the rallies ended quickly on one of his many shanks. Just do not think it was as draining a match as people contend.
2. I do not think we can throw out Djoker's past success over Nadal just like that. 7-2 on hard, won the last three and really pulverized Nadal in those matches. Even in their YEC match (where Nadal said he was healthy) when Djoker was totally jaded about tennis after overplaying an extreme amount, he still won in two sets. In the two matches they played before that when Djoker was more fresh and motivated, he killed him.
He choked vs Fed not long ago in Cincy when he could have won the match. With the stakes raised at the US Open he did not make the same mistake. I think he can raise his level vs Rafa as well.
Let's not forget how Djoker shocked us all by pushing Nadal to the limits on clay last year when Nadal was around -800. That and the hard court domination to me prove beyond a doubt that he matches up well against Nadal. He is nowhere near as mentally tough but in terms of raw talent I think of them as close to equal.
3. Nadal's past history at the US Open is still relevant.
People should not let what he has done the last two slams be a big factor here, because the grass at Wimbledon the second week makes it very close to the qualities of a clay court. Rafa himself admitted it at the time. The first week when the grass was still fast he nearly lost to Petzchner and was pushed to five by Haase.
In this tournament he has dominated for the most part but look at his draw. It is ridiculously easy even for a #1 seed. Even with that draw Gabashvilli took him to multiple tiebreaks and Istomin had a 5-1 lead in the breaker. Verdasco lead 4-2 until he double faulted twice in one game and basically melted down to hand the break back, predictably fading from there. Even Lopez pushed Nadal a bit in his third set vs him, also in the first set blew a 0-40 opportunity.
My point is that he has not been invulnerable even with this super weak draw. With these type of odds you would need borderline perfection to justify laying the wood.
Nadal has only ever beaten one player at the US Open in the top ten in his whole career, and that was headcase Verdasco a few days ago. That is just not much history to go off of to lay this kind of juice against the #3 in the world who has historically dominated him on fast surfaces and is in excellent form this tournament.
You can lay less than half as much juice (I believe) on Djoker to win a set than Nadal to win the match and to me that is the much safer bet. People think this is going to be another blowout but I definitely think Nadal will lose at least one set today and that puts the value on Djoker at this line. The over is also a play. But to say the only play here is Nadal given all the evidence against that is a bit ridiculous IMHO.
An extra 10 mph on his serve changes things but it is not enough to justify this juice, and other than that I think he is playing about as well as he did in his peak of 09 when he won the Aussie Open, and as Verdasco showed he was not invulnerable then either. Nadal will probably make his statement today but I think win or lose, Djoker will make one too: That on a hardcourt he will almost always be the biggest challenge to Nadal of his generation. Murray would have barely been a dog to Nadal if they met here and I always thought Djokovic was an even worse matchup for Nadal on a hardcourt, so to me the quantum leap from the close to even line Murray would have netted to these monster odds when Djoker might well be the bigger challenge anyway seems very off.
other than Nadal having only reached the finals this once and only beaten one top ten player at the US Open in his history, the fact that Djokovic has made I believe 3 straight semis and only lost to Fed the last three years is another big factor. He has a history of tremendous success and consistency here. Only losing to the man who before last year won this slam 5 straight times is nothing to be ashamed of, that is for sure!
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other than Nadal having only reached the finals this once and only beaten one top ten player at the US Open in his history, the fact that Djokovic has made I believe 3 straight semis and only lost to Fed the last three years is another big factor. He has a history of tremendous success and consistency here. Only losing to the man who before last year won this slam 5 straight times is nothing to be ashamed of, that is for sure!
other than Nadal having only reached the finals this once and only beaten one top ten player at the US Open in his history, the fact that Djokovic has made I believe 3 straight semis and only lost to Fed the last three years is another big factor. He has a history of tremendous success and consistency here. Only losing to the man who before last year won this slam 5 straight times is nothing to be ashamed of, that is for sure!
yeah, Nadal had a piece of cake draw so far....Nole atleast beat Fed, which is a BIG plus
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Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:
other than Nadal having only reached the finals this once and only beaten one top ten player at the US Open in his history, the fact that Djokovic has made I believe 3 straight semis and only lost to Fed the last three years is another big factor. He has a history of tremendous success and consistency here. Only losing to the man who before last year won this slam 5 straight times is nothing to be ashamed of, that is for sure!
yeah, Nadal had a piece of cake draw so far....Nole atleast beat Fed, which is a BIG plus
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