Mai Hontama -150

I liked what I saw of Mai Hontama last year. She hasn't played much in 2022 so far, but I feel I know what I'm getting from her. Her opponent Mariam Bolkvadze is a different story. Bolkvadze made deep runs in 2 ITFs this month, but all of her victories this year are against women outside of the top 200.

What drew me to this bet is the fact that yesterday Bolkvadze had 15 double faults and only won 21% of 2nd service points. In her semifinal run at ITF Germany 2 weeks ago, she had 6, 8, 7, and 12 double faults. I'm taking this bet with the expectation that Hontama is the better overall player and that she could get a ton of looks at breaking serve. Only concern is whether Hontama may be rusty and her game isn't really suited for indoors. Before yesterday's win, she hadn't played since AO. Testing my luck because of those ridiculous serve stats from Bolkvadze.

GL moldy.  I like 

I just watched Bolkvadze's loss in Kazakhstan last week and decided to pull out of this one. She had some nagging abdomen injury, which may or may not explain these service woes. But otherwise she looked solid and lost to the eventual champion. I don't like the fact that the Georgian has played so many carpet matches in the last few weeks compared to just 1 for Hontama. Also, I just saw that Bolkvadze beat Hontama 6-4, 6-4 in their lone H2H match. It was on outdoor hard last June.

Going to take a step back and rest my Sunday hopes on Baez.

Sadly, I saw the first post and not the 2nd.  All good.  

@BIGDTITLE

 I saw the 2nd but was to late lol. 0 for my last 5 in tennis. I might have to take a break from it.

My apologies, friends. Proceed on the Santiago final at your own risk, lest I screw you a second time.

we all on baez today?

It's a heart bet on Baez for me. I'm not entirely sold, though. Papamaracaibo makes solid points in AverageAllstar's thread, if you translate it. Pedro has more experience, but Baez has bigger weapons. Yesterday, Baez seemed to be playing above the level of maturity that I thought he was exhibiting in the many matches prior. Will he maintain that level of discipline in his maiden final, though? Nobody knows.

I'm taking Baez cuz (1) I can't help myself after how impressed I was with him yesterday and (2) cuz of how the crowd absolutely shunned Pedro against their boy Tabilo. In reality, I should probably have controlled myself and waited to bet live. 

Oof. Baez playing a little careless so far and the crowd is less of a factor when the stadium is half empty.

I hedged while Pedro was still a very slight underdog. Baez is playing more like what I was hoping for against Ramos. Might even double down on Pedro at this point. May god be with you, whoever you choose.

I'm on baez and live bet over 19.5 games after baez broke Pedro. I either win both or push. Can't lose now

Also on wang in the double match. Parlay baez and wang in the double. 

@handycat

 Yeah, right when I hedged Baez snapped out of whatever he was doing in that span of 3 games. Better safe than sorry.