Mugz vs Halep

Over 21.5 games (-120)...2 units

Over 2.5 sets (+125)...half unit

Strong lean on Mugu ML here, however betting against Halep before a slam final lately isnt a profitable wager...i gotta expect both players to bring their A game tomorrow and the match should be very competitve and close.

Meanwhile Muguruza got bounced in the Rd of 16 in Stuttgart and Madrid + lost in the Rd of 32 in Rome. 

Muguruza went 4-2/62.5% in her 6 significant outdoor clay court matches (@Madrid & Rome) during her run into the 2016 FO which she won; she went 2-2/50% at those venues for her run-in this year. Trade 1 win for a loss from her '16 run-in and that would make for 3-3/50%, the same winning percentage as here. 1 result going the opposite way means she's not up to winning a Slam? Obviously not. For me Muguruza is one of those personalities that gets up for the big ones. That's seen in the fact that while she's won a mere 6 WTA titles, 33% of them are Slam titles. They say in tennis that you make your money outside of the Slams, and you make history inside of them. Muguruza is about history, she has that kind of mindset. She hired Sam Sumyk primarily because he piloted Azarenka to her breakthrough in Slam results. I'm not knocking your Halep pick generally speaking, I think it's a toss-up (I don't believe the 1st set winner will lose, unlike Halep's previous match), but I don't buy the reasoning that Muguruza's run-in results can be looked at as having anything concrete to say about this coming result. I'd be much more focused on the fact she hasn't dropped a set at this Slam to this point and that includes having faced 3 previous FO finalists & 2 previous winners in Stosur, Kuznetsova & Sharapova (& while Tsurenko retired, that match being played to the full wouldn't have interfered with upending that stat imo), while Halep has dropped 2 sets (against players - Riske & Kerber - who both do not like the clay of RG).

Halep is getting to stay/hit close to the baseline, and is targeting Muguruza's fh, not letting her get into any bh rhythm. They are the ingredients for her early 3-0 lead.

60 06 10-8 coming

MUgurza looks hopeless. The games so far have not even been competive .

Sloane

Muguruza broken 4 times out of 4. Anybody who doesn't have their serve functioning against the best returner in the game is dust in the wind.

Adding:

MUGU ML +500 (quarter unit)....ive seen this screenplay before with womens tennis....16 76 63

Halep still isn't really being pushed back from the baseline, that's not good for Muguruza's long-term chances.

Inexcusable errors on Muguruza's part, as much as I was rooting for a 3rd set she had no business winning that match. She started gaining momentum up 4-2 in the second set only to lose 6-4. Not to mention during the 4-4 tiebreak she has a wide open shot and can't get it over the net. Frustrating to watch to say the least.