So Djokovic have a crazy record on grass 130/23, and has won Wimbledon 7 times. He is a 1.13 favorite to win tomorrow so what do we think? Easy win for the goat?
I don't think so, Novak is now 37 years old, just had a surgery a few week back, I think he was very lucky that Alex withdraw and he got some extra rest.
This year Novak is 22-6 he lost 20% of his matches...last season he was 58-8 (only 12% lose rate) so 6 loses in 7 tournaments (would have been 7, if he didn't withdraw before Ruud in French Open) so he still haven't won a tournament this year and we already in July.
This year he has lost against: Nardi, Machac, Tabilo, De Minaur. Ruud & Sinner.
He also lost a set this year to Lehecka, Prizmic, Popyrin, Fritz, Musetti, Cerundolo, Fearnley & Poyrin.
How has he done this week, he have had a very easy draw.
Beat 123 ranked Kopriva in his first match, won 3-1 against 277 ranked Fearnley, won 3-1 against 47 Popyrin and now 3-0 against Rune.
Rune have not been good this year, only 26 wins 14 loses, he lost in the 1st round of Eastbourne and was down 0-2 against Halys so I don't think that match proves a lot.
What about Musetti, h2h it's 1-5.
In their last meeting in French open Musetti was up 2-1 but Novak came back and took won quite easy 3-2 in the last two sets.
In the last 3 years it's 2-1 to Novak but Musetti has taking at least one set 2 of the 3 matches.
Musetti have been very impressive this grass season he is 12-2 and beat both Fritz in the last round and De Minaur in Queens.
I'm very confident that Musetti will take at least one set here, the 22 year old is just getting better, and Novak is in a big decline from his old self. I can see Musetti win this, I don't think it was smart of Novak to get involved with the crowed, before the was in the backseat, talked about this surgery, talked about he wanted to win Olympic, said his knee was not good.
so there was no pressure on him at all, all the big guys would take each other out and he would reach the final under the radar, now he has the spotlights on him again, the Italian crowed will try to get under his skin and you could see against Rune that there was time in the second set when Rune broke back from nowhere that he was not 100%.
So I can't see him be 100% all this game, I won't take the HCP as like we saw in French Open, he can on a good day easily win 6-1, 6-0 so won't take the spread. I can also see that Novak if his down 2-0 or something he would retiree, so I think the best bet here is Musetti to take a set. We seen him drop so many sets against random players all year and now against an inform Musetti, that know how to beat him will be full of confident.
Should be two great matches tomorrow
Anyone who thinks Novak will win in straight sets, please share you thoughts