Besides the US Open a few years back, (excluding the Aussie open where Rafa was clearly injured) Rafa has owned Murray in their big Grand Slam matches. Winning 3-0 in the last two Wimbledon semi finals and 3-0 in the French.
We haven't had the classic men's Wimbledon match yet, I think we are about to have one Friday. Yes Fed/Tsonga was very good as was Nadal/Del Potro but memorable classics they were not.
Quite simply I believe it's now or never for Murray to win Wimbledon ( I think he will win a GS, just not Wimbledon). He has used up very little emotional/physical/mental energy to this point. In previous Wimbledon's this was not the case. Rafa is not dominant at the moment. The wear and tear is evident but it's still hard to pick Murray over Nadal considering how much mentally stronger Nadal is.
The French semi was closer then it looked. Murray pushed Rafa hard in all 3 sets. Considering everything, I expect him to really push Rafa in this match and whatever the over is, I will be playing it...
I will also play Rafa to win 3-2 @ +500...
Murray can't play better then that and its 1-1. You now have to question his big match temperment. Lot of choking there. 
It's over, congrats Rafa backers. 
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