November RRC

3 matches,

TURIN

Rune @1,6

Djokovic-Sinner over 22,5 games @1,72

Sinner and over 23,5 games @4

MONTEVIDEO

Burruchaga-Tirante over 21,5 games @1,85

FYI

Matches with play -over games & ML-winner:

Currently 10 units on over games plus 5 units on the winner and over. Taking into consideration removing from the equation the over play and just bet the over&ML  just gathering data:

November(td):

50% winning rate on these overs- minimum target 60%

40% over & win- target 40-45% 

Just check the match and Rune WO, this play should have been at least 50 units instead of the regular 10. The greek forced to play in the finals otherwise he would have withdrawn. In any other tournament he hadn´t played under any circunstances. This is all about,beat the book.

One match

COLINA

Sherif-Riera over 20,5 games @1,85

OOC

See the lines for the champions of NITTO: fav are medvedev and Sinner for me. I dont know what you think!

I was gonna say :Alcaraz seems to replicate Nadal's footsteps, destiny? Coincidence? Well ,Nadal lost his  debut match in the masters final and then reached the SF and lost  to Federer. So ,Will Alcaraz qualify and lose against Sinner? 

Agree with your opinion either Meddy or THE ginger breadstick :)

16/11

DANDERYD

Moutet-Blockx over 21,5 games @1,8

MONTEVIDEO

Guillén Meza-Burruchaga over 21,5 games @1,8

FYI

This is the scenario:

Djoker has already lost one set against Hurkacz when he needed to win 2:0 in order to qualify. If Djokovic ends up winning the match he will depend on Sinner victory to reach next stage. So , Sinner and Rune know what they need to do qualify. So, this take to the point where Sinner will think internally , lose against Rune on a tight match and Sinner & Rune will play SF. I guess, they prefer Djoker out even in he is not in top form.

Rune-Sinner H2H is 2-0 -however if Rune wins , Djoker will know what was the strategy LOL

I will take the shot on Rune ML(out of competition)--

I bet over 2.5 sets in the Djokovic match. Alcaraz and Medvedev both won in straights at plus juice (I had Alcaraz in straights against Rublev). I thought it would be unusual for every match to be over in straights when these are the top players in the world. Was prepared to go hard on the over on Rune if Hurkacz didn't win a set. 

I think for gamesmanship, neither is gonna factor the Djokovic scenario into it. This is the tour finals, but it's not a major.

My book actually has the Rune line down, but it's up at others at +210. We'll see. I was already leaning Rune anyways, since there hasn't been any upsets this round. 

I like this way of thinking may follow you with Rune ML

Yeah, for me Djokovic-hurkatz match could be a trap so I stayed away for any kind of scenario. You are right, Sinner is playing home , there are money involved and 1500 points if you win all the matches, you can´t fake shots whatever but , just saying, this option will be in their heads now for 4 hours so the situation of the match will change.

Sinner is stronger than Rune at the moment-I believe- but don´t forget he is got a 2-0 against Sinner and played a 3 set game against Djokovic. See  what happens- I will take this opportunity, just in case.

I see the Rune match grayed out on my book now. It originally wasn't up. If you want to play this scenario, and your book has the line up, I would suggest putting it in immediately. Cuz the line could get pulled or adjusted at any moment. 

These young guys are the future, and I'm sure they have a ton of respect for Novak. Joker isn't some spring chicken, and he only has so many years left in him.

Sinner already has $12M in tour winnings, and his whole career ahead of him. He's not worried about the money. Maybe if he was a Challenger or a Qualifier or something, the money is a big deal. But if I was a future top 3 player in the world, I'd welcome the challenge, not run away from it. 

Now it´s @2,55 in mine. I did it at @3,05

Anyway, I have been in this world of betting around one year, kind of beginner- how many times you bet on the one that is quite likely to bet the book´s odds and will be profitable and it´s not. The player hasn´t slept well or he is got some issues ,who knows.

If sinner wins , it´s fine but now, djoker´s match has altered the situation completely because Sinner and Rune didn´t expect that Djoko would lose a set today.

Yes, I agree with that- not saying Sinner will try to lose but the situation in their heads can alter the strategy---this sport is mainly mental.

Rune was +220 and now he's down to +170ish on multiple books. Draftkings still has the line down. 

I saw Fanduel still had +210 on Rune at the start of the third set, but I guess they were leaving open the possibility of Hubert winning at that point.

So you lost a little value if you waited, but +170 is still pretty good. I dunno what I'm gonna do yet, but I'd probably throw a least a few bucks on Rune. Primarily cuz of the no upsets this round. 

Yeah, it was definitely at least a good FYI, but it's not like Vegas wasn't aware of the scenarios. It's still priced into the line, and they still have Sinner at almost 2-1. If they really thought he would tank so he could play chicken and avoid Novak, the line would probably be lower. 

Being an over 2-1 favorite, with nothing to play for, and getting Rune at +170 when Rune is 2-0 vs. Sinner reeks of value. And that's not the type of thing I usually bet. So I may sit this out, or even maybe play a tiny bit on Sinner for fun. Maybe a small bet on Sinner in 3 as well. 

Just a regular bet, nothing else. Now is @2,75

Sinner is the fav today, no doubt. If I was now working at Draftkings, the line will drop a little bit to the original one as Sinner is the fav. Just drop a little bit to drag some atention. If Sinner wins, they will make a lot of money. It´s a win win situation LOL

GL

I watched Fanduel have the line at +170 for Rune a few minutes ago, and it's already been bet back up to +192 for Rune now. 

Now that the line has had time to settle a bit, unless there's some drastic move towards later in the day, I would suggest staying away from Rune.

As a person that doesn't know a ton about tennis, but has been betting it for many years, the #1 rule of thumb in my book is to bet against the value. And I see an S-Load of value on Rune right now. If you read the tennis forum, you'll see people chasing value every day, but they almost always lose. 

I'm quite frugal in real life, but when it comes to betting, I don't ever bet something when there's a ton of value in it. There's a reason the line is like that.

GL to whatever you pick. 

You are correct and like your point. Just thinking in tennis , not in numbers now LOL

@VICRRC

 Great read on the rune match. Super close. Thanks for the info. Win or lose that was a super good read! 

Closer than before Djokovic´s game for sure. If you watched the game ,the energy and flow that Sinner had with Djokovic, today, it had become in a different state of relaxation. Third set ,Sinner was doubting and shouting to his box. I don´t know how he managed to survive because Sinner seemed not understanding the match.

That was my point, if you take off adrenaline and tension of having to battle against Rune for a spot in the SF , it could bring problems. No need to watch the lines------

Saturday,

TURIN

Djokovic-Alcaraz over 23,5 games @1,85

Alcaraz & over 23,5 games @3,75

2 matches,

TURIN

Djokovic-SInner over 23,5 games @1,85

MONTEVIDEO

Acosta-Monteiro over 22,5 games @1,9

Results 2nd week: 7-6-1 +4,5% ROI

Monday,

YOKOHAMA

Wong @1,7

VALENCIA

Molleker @3,2

21/11

VALENCIA

Pedro Martínez @1,65

1 match,

BRASILIA

Fonseca @1,67