In the last 3 weeks, Popyrin has lost 3 consecutive, very close matches to top level players (Krajinovic, Khachanov, Rinderknech). He is averaging about 10 aces a match, so I expect he'll be hard to break on the Marseille indoor courts, as long as his head is in the game. Because Popyrin hasn't won a match since Jan 6, I think he is undervalued in this spot against Bonzi.
I've come to regard Benjamin Bonzi as somewhat of a Challengers king. This guy seems to always win or go deep in indoor Challengers (there are so many in Europe) and then squander his tour level opportunities. Bonzi will have the home crowd, but there are so many more French guys in the first round that I don't expect it to be a factor. There might even be a more popular Frenchman playing at the same time as him. Bonzi is also playing in the Cherbourg Challenger final this Sunday, so he's not going to be rested. This a big factor for me.
Popyrin will be rested and he has that big service game, but I've come to know him as an inconsistent player. He's only 22 years old and it shows. That being said, there are a lot of factors of this matchup that make me like him to win. I'm adding a +1.5 set spread as insurance, just in case. If Popyrin loses, I think it'll be extremely close.
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