Rafael Nadal vs Nikolay Davydenko

Both players advanced comfortably but Nadal was who impressed me the most, looked solid all around his tournament rounds (it must be said that his opponents were easier than Davydenko though) and looks determined to start off the '09 season with a big win.

Sometimes you have to throw H2H statistics out of the window when handicapping certain matchups (Davydenko vs Federer to name 1 other outstanding case) and in this case FORGET about the beating Davy gave to Nadal in '09. Nadal had very big health and mental issues late last season and despite this and the fact that Davydenko was in the best shape of his life he forced a TB in each of the two matches and hanged against who was a much better opponent those days.

Davydenko's post match interview saw the Russian saying he was tired in the second set against Federer and he tried to keep the points short as he thought Federer was tired as well (or maybe he just didn't care that much). Good luck doing that vs Rafa.
That alone gives me enough confidence on Nadal because you can be sure of one thing: Nadal wants this win MORE than Davydenko. He is on a mission.

Given that Nadal is healthy I see extreme difficulties for Davydenko today as he won't be able to control the rallies forcing Rafa outside of the court because of Rafa's great scrambling abilities. I watched Davydenko for his last 2 matches and he is FAR from being the Davydenko we saw last year towards the end of the year. Federer was poor (commitment he showed yesterday was questionable) and despite Davy served an amazing 1st serve % (hardly repeatable) he was broken by Federer and I was surprised at how a poor baseliner like Karlovic hanged in most of the rallies against him and lost the match in 2 tight TB.

For the tournament Davydenko won only 48% of the points behind 2nd ball (Nadal won 62%) and converted only 46% of the break points he had (Nadal converted 62% of them). Expect Nadal to be aggressive on Davy's second ball and to control the rallies on Davy's serve as much as he will on his serve.

If Davydenko plays out of his skin and wins the match he will deserve a very big round of applause today because as far as I am concerned he will go down in straight sets because I am almost sure of a fantastic performance by Rafa.


I am betting half of my week's winnings on this match.


Rafael Nadal (-125)

I hope you're wrong on this part  i'm on the other side.
BOL anyway

Damn bud. Got a medium play the other way. 15% of winnings here I would say. Could lose and still be up nicely on the week so no big deal at all... Got a hedge on him 2-1 so if you win I hope that is how. I am not drawing conclusions about Nadal from his cakewalk draw. Granted I have hardly watched him other than on the scoreboard. I am going to make him take my money once from the best before acknowledging him as completely back vs the top tier. Tired or not Davydenko looked totally on form to me the past two matches, just IMHO.

I think Koyla will want this as well. He has the greatest momentum of his life and I do not think he will let it go without a fight. Obviously you could win this and no one would bat an eye. I do not think Nadal should be the favorite after their last two matches though, injured/fatigued or not. Even a rejuiced/fresh Nadal should have some of the same mathup problems (on HC) exhibited before, I think. I liked your writeup as always but am on opposite side as part of overall system plays combining (uncertainty with Nadal, riding Koyla's hot streak).

If Nadal wins here I will probably bet on him to win the AO. That is how much the match means in my eyes. I definitely planned on betting Nadal to beat Fed if he got here. I think this final between Davy and Nadal will say a ton about both players chances at that Slam, and I think they know that too and thus expect 100% from both.

I expect an awesome match!

Might put a unit on the over as well.

nm remember i made a greedy smaller 2-0 prop bet. Yeah I know man, I'm nuts.

wow that was a complete shock when I opened this thread and to put half of the weeks earnings on it im scared of Davydenko now .

screw it I already made my bed now I'll lay in it just gonna reduce my Davy bet a lil

I disagree some that Karlovic stayed in rallies with Davy. Well, he would get a few balls back but watching that match almost every single time the ball was in play Davydenko won the point. He only lost one point on serve the first five games of the match. I still remember that. I was very comfortable with that match feeling that he was dominant off the ground and Ivo only kept in it due to an insane serving performance and good volleys aggressively backing up his superserve. With an average serve instead of the best ever I feel Karlovic would have been double bageled there. Other than a choke in the second set breaker when he was up 5-1 I was extremely impressed with Davy there. Fed's match was harder to read but he did what he had to and it was never in doubt, which is saying something vs Fed given their history.

Davy's first serve percentage the last two matches has also been shockingly good. He was over 90% the first set vs Ivo and 100% the first set vs Roger. I think if he can get over 90% here he should surely be the favorite. Sorry to overpost, wish they had an edit button.

Me too! TC is like the Nostradamus of tennis capping. But even Nostradamus spelled Hitler's name wrong.

Yeah BP
Thos are some fair points, but my point is that Davydenko doesn't have these many chances against Rafa.
To my eyes Rafa is still a 1.7 / 1.8 to 1 favorite against Davydenko and the proof is that even with all his '09 struggles he managed to keep it tight against him.

I may as well be wrong, Davy still is an amazing player but he must really play amazing to win this, which of course he could do, but I give less chances of that happening.

And I am no Nostradamus...
I just catch soft lines and pound them

I was thinking of doing a Nadal Slam Chaser plan TC. What do you think? Betting a certain amount on Nadal and his dog future odds (which I would guess will still be sizeable) each slam and increasing the bet each time until he wins one this year. His odds will be better than Fed's and I am more convinced of him winning one than Fed. Was thinking of doing it already and like it more than all other ways to bet the AO and upcoming slams (should he fail to defend his title) with regards to futures.

Davydenko is actually one of the major roadblocks in my mind on a HC, Fed and DelPo included of course. I do think the humility of late last season will lead to a charge early in the year. But if he really dominates as you expect then that will make me thin the slam chaser system is a good idea, as it ensures profit if Rafa wins one of the next three and if he does win one this year it should be the AO or Wimbledon IMO.

*obvious Djoker is a threat to win the AO as well. I think it is between those four and that Murray will falter and play the wrong brand of tennis at the wrong time once again this slam.

In complete agreement, good luck to us

Holy cow this isn't good to see at all.

before i opened this thread i thought...TC for sure is on Nadal

wanted to go for Davy, but i will tail you on Nadal

Not a big fan of chasing, even if for small amounts, however if he does well the first part of the season, you won't see juicy odds for neither Roland Garros and Wimbledon... Actually you will see him to win RG at -120 or even more before the start of the tournament 

It could turn out to be not a good plan because it is always hard to think 9 months in advance.
Last year this time would have you even considered betting a penny on Soderling to beat him in RG? 36 to 1 shot that was, I still remember the previous week Rafa manhandled him in Rome 6-0 6-1... Last January nobody knew Soderling was going to explode, maybe this year Davy explodes or Murray does, hard predictions.

Current form is one of the main aspects I consider when compiling what I think are fair odds so I am not too cut out for these plans.


rod - Good to have you on the same side


pg - How are you buddy? Are you on Davy? I suppose so, I feel confident in my bet but please don't consider a change because of me, if Rafa loses I would feel horrible!

You know I love the Number 1 fighter in ATP

Going with Davy first set.  Raf might win outright but I think he falls short first set then comes back.  tough to call on a hard court

Ob board with ya here TC. I feel like Rafa would be extremely disappointed with himself last season and more than likely worked harded than any other player over the break. Also, he is likely healthy now as well. It's been a while but we all remember what a healthy Rafa is like. All great points TC. I could see Rafa recapturing his intensity and play of 2009 at this time. I like the pick, seems the line is shifting towards Davy though so I'll wait to place by bet.

2 units of Rafa. BOL all

How about Step tonight vs ARod ?

Steph/Arod. Over all day.

can someone tell me what was the score in Nadal/Davy in the first game...???

well NM, some of the numbers they put on these matches are ridiculous. my book just opened up over/under lines. I have seen 23.5 many times and that is pretty high to me, needing three sets almost certainly to win, and most matches are decided in two.

Damn you're good TC I lost a lot less on Davy than I was going to thanks to your post. (I know it's still the first set but I'm throwing in the towel and cheering for a retirement)