Going to keep myself honest with a new tennis thread here, let's go...
3.2. 2023
Fritz/Tiafoe over 22.5
Cocciaretto -3.5
Pretty excited to see who has the edge with Fritz/Tiafoe. 5-1 for Fritz but Tiafoe playing better and (maybe??) more consistent. These two normally battle it out close so I like at least one tiebreak and likely 3 sets here.
Cocciaretto has been hot but also has a trend of winning convincingly in game score spreads.
LEANS
Bonadio +4.5
Cerundolo -150 ML
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Going to keep myself honest with a new tennis thread here, let's go...
3.2. 2023
Fritz/Tiafoe over 22.5
Cocciaretto -3.5
Pretty excited to see who has the edge with Fritz/Tiafoe. 5-1 for Fritz but Tiafoe playing better and (maybe??) more consistent. These two normally battle it out close so I like at least one tiebreak and likely 3 sets here.
Cocciaretto has been hot but also has a trend of winning convincingly in game score spreads.
Not going to bet against Rune anymore. Looks to be in top form, and De Minaur has had a relatively easy path to this point.
Jarry has been in a tiebreak in at least one set in each of his last 4 matches on clay. Fairly evenly matched and big servers playing at high altitude.
LEAN
Djere +145 - This match should be closer to a pick'em, good line for Djere
1
0-2 on day 1, rough start.
3.3.23
Rune (-2.5)
Jarry/Hanfmann Over 23.5
Not going to bet against Rune anymore. Looks to be in top form, and De Minaur has had a relatively easy path to this point.
Jarry has been in a tiebreak in at least one set in each of his last 4 matches on clay. Fairly evenly matched and big servers playing at high altitude.
LEAN
Djere +145 - This match should be closer to a pick'em, good line for Djere
I like Monfils to at least make it past the first round before the body breaks down. Lehecka coming a couple of tough matches but should get back on track here.
0
1-1 yesterday with one push, YTD 5-4 (-.05 units)
Playing a couple of underdogs today:
Kubler +175 (1 unit)
Monfils +130 (1 unit)
Lehecka -3.5, Ev (1 unit)
I like Monfils to at least make it past the first round before the body breaks down. Lehecka coming a couple of tough matches but should get back on track here.
1-2 yesterday. Nice W with Kubler. Just a little off taking -3.5 with Lehecka.
YTD 6 - 6 (-.3 units)
3.9.23
1 unit on all of these. Got to got at least 3-2
Kovinic/ Raducanu O20.5 (-115), spread seems too low, maybe books know something I don't
Bonaventure (+105) - she has the fatigue advantage here and a 2-0 record vs. Gracheva so she knows how to beat her
Putintseva +4 (-120) - on hard courts vs. top 100 players, she is 8-2 if you give her +4
Etcheverry +4 (Ev) - Murray is a fun watch lately because he is always getting in close back and forth battles. Etch should be able to keep it close enough to cash at +4
Parlay Kokkinakis + JJ Wolf (Ev) - I think these are my two favorite tennis players rn, idk why. But I see them both coasting through today
0
1-2 yesterday. Nice W with Kubler. Just a little off taking -3.5 with Lehecka.
YTD 6 - 6 (-.3 units)
3.9.23
1 unit on all of these. Got to got at least 3-2
Kovinic/ Raducanu O20.5 (-115), spread seems too low, maybe books know something I don't
Bonaventure (+105) - she has the fatigue advantage here and a 2-0 record vs. Gracheva so she knows how to beat her
Putintseva +4 (-120) - on hard courts vs. top 100 players, she is 8-2 if you give her +4
Etcheverry +4 (Ev) - Murray is a fun watch lately because he is always getting in close back and forth battles. Etch should be able to keep it close enough to cash at +4
Parlay Kokkinakis + JJ Wolf (Ev) - I think these are my two favorite tennis players rn, idk why. But I see them both coasting through today
1-4 yesterday was rough. Still think my process is solid. Etcheverry/Murray was closely fought as I predicted. JJ dominated the first set and then tanked. Tough break.
YTD 7 - 10 (- 3.5 units)
3.10.23
Schwartzmann +4.5 (-120, 1 unit)
Sasnovich +4 (-115, 1 unit)
Vekic ML (-175, 2 units)
0
1-4 yesterday was rough. Still think my process is solid. Etcheverry/Murray was closely fought as I predicted. JJ dominated the first set and then tanked. Tough break.
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