Tennis(US Open)

Friday Qualifiers
2* Zhang -121
1* Gojowczyk +125
1* Wu +173

Early lines for 1st round
2* Sela -174
2* Hewitt +338
1* Nieminen +124

Curious to know what's your reasoning for hewitt to beat berdych?

first time i saw u putting 2* on heavy dog.

2* is warranted when real ROI is in excess of 2x what you've perceived it to be.  Barring any negative news on Hewitt, this play is well worth the 2 unit risk.  BOL.

Zhang lost but McGee making a main draw is nice to see.

1-2 -2.17

(YTD 133-137 +47.1)

I'll get write ups in this weekend, just looking for lines until then

2* Ferrer wins 3rd Q +225

3* Smyczek -120

2* Lorenzi  +101

2* Nedovyesov -123

2* Beck -156
1* Lajovic +280
1* Dodig +145

1* Gojowczyk +148

berdych struggled with a shoulder injury lately


gl neg

also took a shot with ferrer
love his draw

Neg...good job with your plays. Mad respect. Are these plays for the US Open on Monday and Tuesday?

Futures
2* Ferrer to win 3rd Q +225

Monday
2* Nedovyesov -123
McGee qualifying is a huge story for him and Ireland but I'll take his opponent here. Nedovyesov isn't anything special on this surface but is a level above the Irishman with a couple victories over top 100 players and some decent named scalps on his hc resume. McGee tends to fall short against players in this area, just outside the top 100, as it represents his peak level of play. He has a decent first serve and pop on his strokes but falters in rallies and the tactical game against opponents this high in the rankings. After two comeback wins in qualifying, his conditioning was also a bit suspect in closing out Zhang and he now plays his first best of 5 match. I can't see him winning 3 sets to take this one.

2* Beck -156
Siding with the German qualifier here as PCB hasn't shown much of anything on hardcourts outside a Spanish challenger title that represents almost half of his win total on this surface. Beck with the capability of earning the cheaper points with his size and power and should squeeze over the line in this one.

1* Gojowczyk +148
After a promising opening hardcourt tournament at Doha earlier this season, Gojowcyzk hasn't really followed it up with any consistency. Becker's obviously in better hardcourt form with some quality wins(Karlovic and Pospisil) and deeper tourney performances this season yet there's the random blips on his resume with brutal losses to Martin(ranked 347) and Fabbiano(ranked 187). Meanwhile Gojowczyk boasts far more impressive victories with wins over Kohlschreiber, Raonic and Tsonga on fast surfaces in 2014 hinting at his potential. Odds seem a little too low in general with Becker's latest results so I'll take a chance here with the streaky Gojowczyk to continue off his qualifying form.

rish, 3 for monday rest are tuesday.

bb, I'll go over Lorenzi and Hewitt tomorrow morning.

Cilic vs Baggy, I was actually looking at taking Cilic to win his section(Ferrer's quarter) so I'm a big believer in him having a serious chance at a deep run here. Baghdatis just ran through two challenger titles to try and build up his confidence but he's been in decline for a few years now. Love Cilic's improvements this season and I like him to win 3-1 so will depend on the total at your book. I'm seeing 35.5 at a few places.

Beck -104 on 5dimes ..  why such movement ? 

Wrong Beck sorry lol

Maybe not ... Im so confuse ... I just bet on 8/25/14 12:30pm  ATP Tennis  142 Andreas Beck -104* vs Pablo Carreno-Busta

Thats the right Beck, why such big line movement???

Congrats on Gojowczyk and whoever name congrats on the winners. 

nice capping today, bro, I remember you from previous majors, lots of value in the early rounds...keep positng!

Nice three star winner

missed writes up yesterday due to work

4-2 +4.38

(YTD 137-139 +51.48)

Weds
2* Hewitt +338
Jumped out at me right away. Since arriving on tour, Berdych has lost in the first round of a major in every single year except one. He's in a funk with his play since Wimbledon and seems to be bothered by various ailments including his shoulder. Hewitt took down the big hitting Del Potro last year at the Open in 5 sets and I like him here to do the same against the mentally inferior Czech.

2* Sela -174
Hardcourt pedigree to see the mini Sela through in this one against the predominantly clay Berlocq.

1* Lajovic +280
Janowicz put a lot of effort into last week and fell short in a final after showing some more foot discomfort. He was questionable earlier this year due to it and there was the possibility of foot surgery after tons of poor results. I don't think he'll be fully recovered from last week and a retirement is possible if his foot continues to bother him here.

1* Dodig +145
1* Kavcic +224

weird day, 2-3 +0.24

(YTD 139-142 +51.72)

Thurs
3* Murray 3-0 -160
Received an extra day to figure out the cramping issue and gets a lightweight opponent in a nice bounce back opportunity. Bachinger doesn't offer much to challenge the top guns. He'll need help from the heat and Murray's body to stay close in this one.

2* Lepchenko/Barthel over 21.5 -102 (WTA)
Barthel's far removed from her 2012 form where she looked like a sure thing to be a future mainstay in the top 20. Still has the big game when it's on and she's not spraying errors while Lepchenko is as straight forward as it comes with a steady unspectacular style. Expecting both women to look dominant at times and find their way to a decisive 3rd set.

1* Kuznetsov +267
Verdasco, once a player on the rise has fallen away yet again. An unreliable serve to go with an erratic game and mental demons has eroded his confidence year after year since his breakout in 2009. He almost self destructed in the 1st round versus a lesser opponent then Kuznetsov so I'll give him another chance here against the rising Russian.

1* Carreno Busta +267
Paire struggling through the year with various ailments earned a tough surprising 5 set win over compatriot Benneteau in the first round. Clearly the superior hardcourt player, Paire's serve is very underrated and his backhand is one of the best 2 handers on tour, yet his forehand is horrible. PCB's main success is found on clay courts but he definitely has the game to translate to hard if he focuses. He brings a great tennis IQ to this one and should be looking to exploit Paire's weaker wing to set off the volatile Frenchman. Could be a rollercoaster match with Paire's explosive personality, especially if things don't go his way early.

1* Ebden +297
Even with Ebden being a complete mush this year, Mayer should never be favoured by this much on hardcourts against him.

Interesting picks. Ebden jumped out at me as well.

N3 =======<>GOOD LUCK!!

thanks billy

3-2 +5.3

(YTD 142-144 +57.02)

Busta

Kuznetsov

Sweet N  3          

Like any dogs for Friday?