The French Open - One play a day! (Community thread)

It would take a miracle to cover your Alcaraz -2.5 bets

Ok old man

So many trolls on this site. Hell they are even infesting the tennis forum now.

@BigDickHertzer

Yup,,,low IQ, poor, jealous cockroach infestations typically occur during slams 

 12-1. The streak breaks. Sorry for those who tailed. Lets see if we can finish with 14-1 record. This is the hardest time to cap but itms also the most exciting tennis.

GL all.

@packersbackers

 Ignore em buddy. 

@AverageAllstar

 Still the champ, it was the right winner very impressive 2 weeks!  

@BigDickHertzer

Agreed,,,ignoring them only accelerates their unhinged meltdowns 

For the sake of this tournament here you could have played him ML at 1.65

@packersbackers

 That's the point. It's entertaining..

So what are the chances that someone spikes Iga's water with whatever hit Sabalenka and Ruud then Paolini takes the championship? In both instances they seemed fine one minute and terrible the next. What are the odds of that happening twice in the middle of the match like that? 

Quick question for anyone.  My book is offering an over/under for total breaks of serve in the iga match at 7.5.  Isn't the only way this can go over is if paolini breaks igas serve more than 2 times?

@spl1t

 I’m super inebriated atm and I’m also a self proclaimed wonens tennis shit advisor, but what I’ll say is that Iga’s matches, have been landslides, she’s been broken but her matches have never exceeded 7.5 games in this tournament. I think for this total to hit you need to consider the over. Is this a three setter?

@spl1t

 What?no the only way it goes over is if the total serve breaks is over 7.5 for either play for the match total

What the wta final play?

Carlos was only 140 on the moneyline at my book...no need to have taken minus games

I agree. Dumb to play the spread there. 

I think that's a high #

The last time they played in 2022, when Paolini was in nowhere near the form she's in now, Iga won 6-3 6-0. So 15 total games but there were 9 total breaks of serve. In the first set Paolini won 1 service game and broke Iga twice while Iga won 2 service games and broke Jasmine 4 times so 6 total breaks in that set alone. 

You have to look at it like this: each time Paolini breaks Iga that will require Iga to win more games to win the set which will likely mean another break for Iga. So if Paolini breaks Iga once that could almost count as 2 breaks. Let's say Iga wins 6-0 6-1. 3 breaks first set. Second set Iga goes up 5-0 after breaking Paolini 3 more times. Then Paolini breaks Iga to make it 5-1 followed by Iga breaking back for 6-1. That makes 8 total breaks. 

To me this is a tricky prop to cap. Iga is the best returner in the game. Paolini is also a good returner, which had really been the main way she won matches before this year. But now she's found her serve as well, especially over the past couple months on clay. Not great power but excellent placement and spin. As I noted earlier in the thread, she remarkably lost only a single service point in her first set against Rybakina.

Personally I like Paolini as player to break service first at +265. I also like other first set bets like over 8.5 games (-130) or a first set game spread on Paolini if you find one. I think Paolini has a much better chance at performing well in the first set while Iga gets used to her spin and angles. I also lean towards Paolini's game spread at +6.5. I am on it at +7.5 which I got when it momentarily moved to that yesterday on FanDuel. Sometime in the 3rd set of Zverev yesterday I used the profit boost to parlay Zverev 3-1 sets + Paolini +7.5 games boosted to +301.

My official play for the Women's Final is first set over 8.5 games (-130).

Sneaky.

She hasn’t hit one in a couple straight. Granted she no big server but Iga O 1.5 aces at +165 is worth a unit for some action here

And 1st set O 8.5 -110

I bet Iga ML. -2000  and won 100. Lol. Reckless bet but I’m way up in the French - Cashed huge on a Zverev - Nadal and Ruud matches , cashed ML Carlos and Zverev. Carlos is amazing on clay and Zverev is playing the best tennis of his career. Carlos -256 seems extremely high under these circumstances. Maybe worth a ML parlay w Carlos and Celtics . 

@RayRayK

You like over or under 39.5 in the final? It’s really juiced to Carlos and under. 

12-1

Alcatraz/Zverev Over 36.5 @ -133

Trap line? I’m falling in it.

GL everybody and enjoy the final.