The Open

@BIGMOMMALUTZ

No value in tonight's game. PASS

Miss u Mel. 

@skillahmang

This match is about as tight as it gets. If Iga flinches first she could fall. It could literally come down to a single unforced error in the first set tiebreak before things unravel for one of the players. 

Or just a complete meltdown in the 10th game. I probably caused that one.

Samson could not handle the pressure at the end of the set. Here comes Iga's bakery.  

The breadstick. That is what you call a bad beat. Guess I need to give the shift manager at Sonic a ring to pick up an extra shift to cover the loss. 

@wgomel21

 You get fired from Taco Bell?? I told you to stop skipping work to bet your per hour wage on tennis matches.

Lol.

@wgomel21

 That was really terrible though. It was such a close first set. Before the final game of that set they were within 1 point of total points won. Then Iga breaks to love and wins 63% in the second set. 

That's why I practically never bet on her matches. There's typically not much value betting on her large game spreads and matches like this one where there really was value on the underdog spread can turn before you blink an eye.

@bringit

Unfortunately, they let me go. Apparently, I was running off the customers with all my gas from their complementary meal in between the double shift.

@bringit

That is why went very light but back in town and was ready to get back in the swing of things. It may be better just to go on a few light bets for the rest of the Open. Zero consistency and do not want to use football to support it just to continue.

@wgomel21

 I feel the same...you had amazing runs...this open seems crazy to call most times unless you bet heavy favs...

@Uman

 Question for you. Do you still feel the same way as you stated previously not liking smaller tournaments? 

@wgomel21

 Nope

Too late for any value now but just noticed that tank was HUGE on FSU at halftime as a short fav. As a former WTA coach he could have some inside info. I mean, a lot of the ladies from around the world live or train in Florida right?

Small Tournaments >>

they were good to me

@bringit

 You lost me with that comment. Must have missed the weekend's episode of As the World Turns.

@skillahmang

 They were good to all of us. 

@wgomel21

 From what I've read, I think everybody's been fading Tank's GUARANTEED LOCK tennis plays all weekend with great success

@bringit

Happy to know the crew have found a way to win. 

I agree with the sentiment about the smaller tournaments. When I have more time I will explain more about what I think has been my most successful strategy for WTA matches in general. It is more about certain players and certain matchups. Those matchups have been more widely available in smaller tournaments but they can be found in slams as well.

I did well at RG and SW19, especially during the early rounds, but this tournament is just crazy. I've already used this example before somewhere in a thread but just look at Ashlyn Krueger's tournament. She opens up by getting bageled her first set in front of the home crowd by the absolute worst main draw entrant in the tournament and one of the worst of any player in the tournament. A player who is nearly a 10 to 1 underdog and is in the middle of a record-breaking losing streak, having already broken the previous record that had stood for nearly a quarter century. But after a pretty successful summer Ashlyn gets bageled first set and ends up winning a tight third set in a match where she won just under 50% of the points. Then after barely squeaking by the coldest player on tour she comes out and dominates one of the hottest players, winning 60% of points against Andreeva before getting double breadsticked by Samsonova as a small underdog.

So the typical common sense betting strategy on Krueger ends up going something like this: 'Zhang sucks, Krueger will win easy', then 'Krueger could barely beat Zhang, Andreeva will dominate her', then you're thinking 'huge statement win for Krueger, she'll keep it close against Samsonova if she doesn't win outright'. 

If you were to have strategized and bet on all three of those matches I don't see how you would have possibly expected the outcome to be that much different than the fictional predictions above. This is just one example, there have been plenty of other matches that have had this ridiculous aura to them as well. What about Kalinskaya last night? She had one unfortunate call go against her very early and after that it was like she completely stopped caring and was thinking, 'screw this, I don't even want to play anymore'. I wouldn't have been that shocked if Sinner would've lost cause there's no telling what he had to deal with regarding her last night.

@bringit

Thank you for the morning read. Hopefully no one was stubborn enough to keep firing and get themselves in a negative situation.

When everyone wants to sell, buy --- When everyone wants to buy, sell --- It's counterintuitive and doesn't come easy to most - but if you do it, you will beat most financially driven markets in the long run.

@Calde13

 No doubt. Our love for tennis can be the greatest downfall. All four matches should be extremely competitive but throwing money in the wind hoping it travels in the right direction does not interest me. Plan on working the matches but if a wager is submitted it will be insignificant no matter the outcome.