The US Open - One play a day! (Community thread)

GL Handy thanks for posting 

Small play. Nothing big...I think samsonova should alleast win 7 games 

Paolini/Muchova 1st Set O8.5 

Schnaider/Pegula 1st Set O8.5 

Medvedev ML

Parlay @ +113 

5-3-1

Parlaying today with tomorrows play.

Tiafoe/Dinitrov O38.5

Fritz/Zverev 1st Set O8.5

Parlay @ +107

With Tiafoe and Dinitrov winning around 85% of their first serve points, I expect few break chances which usually means lots of games. Both guis playing well. I’d give the wdge to Big Foe here with the love from the crowd and his low error count throughout the tournament. Playing solid. Dimitrov has a better overall game than Tiafoes previous match ups but I think facing Shelton and Popy has been perfect tune ups to play against Dimitrov. 

7-5,4-6, 7-6 7-5 kinda match.

Samsonova is built like rock...I feel emasculated just looking at her

5-3-2

Muchova ML

Medvedeve/Sinner 1st Set O8.5

Parlay @ -125

muchova 2-0 -110

Muchova + Siniakova/Townsend (-137)

1-2

5-4-2

Two tough beats in a row for me. First the retire and then the absurd momentum shifts of Dani and Jannick. 0-1-1 my last two.

Pegula/Muchova 1st Set O8.5

Sabelenka -2.5 Games

Parlay @ -115

Just a play by the numbers for a 1/2U today to keep the play a day alive.

Pegula and Muchova with excellent 1st serve winning percentages USUALLY means lots of holds as long as they keep their 1st serve percentage respectable. Sabelenka’s overall dominance on opponents second serve all tournament combined with her outstanding service game numbers should put her ahead by a couple breaks by the end of the match. But it’s womens tennis… Strap in and get ready for some unbelievable moments.

@AverageAllstar

 Where are you playing at...Sab is - 4.5  games almost everywhere???

Betano.

Bet Rivers has Alt lines too. I think 365 and DK also buy games off ya.

Wrong. Only FanDuel and MGM has that option 

You can take alt spreads on draftkings after the match goes live. But if you time it right you can go ahead and take those lines right before the match starts. Like the Sabalenka match starts at 7pm eastern but the match really wont start until at least 7:10. But if you go on DK right at 7pm it will usually go 'live' and you can bet the alt lines. You have to time it good though because it may go live at 7 but then a couple minutes later they may have the match reset to start at 7:10 so its not 'live' anymore.

Ugh… Betano is 100% correct. And MGM only offers 3 lines. + or - 1 game from the even paying line.

Try bovada for alt lines pre match

5-5-2

Last post for me. See if I can come out ahead in picks

Sinner/Draper O35.5 -104

Drapers service game has been solid. Sinner making in excess of 30UFE in a lot of his matches. Draper under on most of his matches.  This match could be closer than the books are suggesting. I think Draper can steal a set and depending on momentum shifts, maybe even surprise.

GL all.

I heard from a little birdie on my window sill that Draper is money in this match...I don't believe it because I have 100% been on Sinner to win from the get once Djoker and Alcaraz went out, but this birdie is quite the inquisitive one....

I don't know if Draper takes Sinner down but the +6.5 spread looks juicy and the books are baiting those to take Sinner at a relatively small number here and barely juiced...at this point of the tournament, and the end of the season, it comes down to fitness...Draper hasn't dropped a set, while Sinner has dropped 2 sets...Draper has had by the easier of the draw between the two...the only previous match between Sinner and Draper was 3 years ago and Sinner took that 7-6, 7-6, so you can't put too much stock in this result...Sinner has been on the court for 11 hours 17 minutes and Draper for 9 hours 14 minutes...about a 2 hour difference...this may come into play here and will need to if Draper is to stand any chance...

I look for this match to be much closer than one might think...it's also a day match and there is something to be said about this and should be taken into consideration...there is no inclement weather in the forecast so one would assume the roof stays open....not sure what the sun will look like on the court at the start of the match and throughout, but these start times tend to be brutal on sun/shade for the players...