WTF the Joker -230 over Bird ?

ok I am in to win 10 units at -230 JOKER 

 

"I am not buying the I am hurt thing from Joker,"  he completed this yr by winning in Paris

 

i

I think Bird takes him out Gav

Very dangerous taking Djok at that price

I really think Joker is going to win against Bird, I am not buying all  this crap about Joker Hurts

 

I think this goes the distance with Joker taking it....

 

remember Nadal at Roland Garros, they played out how he was not healthy, and he was not going to win,

 

they gave out some nice lines on Nadal on the way to his victory there,

Why is Joker at -230 or -240 dangerous......do you think he should be favored by 4-1 ,,,, or 5-1.......?

 

they are playing on this Joker is hurt thing .....

 

I will have to admit I should just stick to NFL only .......I have won so much damn money in the NFL it has got me

 

to all good luck I think I will just put to win 5 units on JOKER

Tennis was not good to me this year........

 

funny how they got everybody thinking Fed is going to win this ??

 

lets see how this plays out......My guess Joker wins the whole damn thing, and the whole time the media will portray a hurt Joker

so everybody will think he is going to lose

  not fooling me with this

 

get your popcorn out  lets see this shit unfold

 

and If i get a future line on the Joker I will hit it for 3 or 4 units what ever the damn number is

 

 

 

 

Joker @+400 to win is ridiculous, i agree

People think Novak is done for the year but I think he was saving himself up for the main event. This is the vital thing that changes my perception of this value. I thought he would go out like he did the last two events because this late and with his body ailing he could not max out for all three of these back to back indoor events. He had to take at least one of them less seriously.

Remember just two tournaments ago he was +150 to win in Basel and Roger +360. I thought they fucked up there because they seemed to assume Djoker would give his best that tournament, when there was plenty of evidence to suggest it was a prime spot for a tank. But as it was they made him the heavy favorite to win that thing and thus were "surprised" when he did not, especially the manner in which he went out, losing in a third set 0-6 to Nishikori, making the match almost look legit!

They anticipated Novak failing in Paris by opening him as the third fave, similar to the WTF. They must have loved dangling that +450-550 all week only to have Novak pull out against Tsonga and not even allow people to hedge out of their bets! Heavenly.

But did he pull out of Paris because he fully could not play or because he knew it was wiser to save himself for the more important WTF? I say it is the latter.

And when fully motivated ten days is a lot of healing time.

This same guy also retired the Masters Event before the US Open with one week rest and we all know how that turned out. I thought he hit the ball with great power when he wanted to against Troicki in the last match I saw him play. I too am bitting like (I guess) a super sucker and putting five units on the Djoker at +435.

I find it very hard to make any case for any of the other guys at their value. At least we know point blank we are betting on health here and that the perception of him being currently shot is incorrect. We should be able to tell early and hedge out in live betting to a degree. Keep an eye on his serving speeds. If those numbers are cosistently low we will have solid evidence that the injury is still affecting him even if he is winning vs the likes of Berdych.... this is a nice number to create a possible hedge opportunity and lower the risk. But you would have to hit the hedge of course or have him win it....

I am in on Djoker with a non trigger happy finger ready to pull it against him for up to 15 units if I think he will lose. Should be fun, and not only do I like his chances, I feel confident in the selection because I feel like it all resulted from that incorrect Basel line a few weeks ago and people not anticipating his upsets the way some of us have. I liked Fed the last two tournaments because I thought Djokovic would be focused on this event and now that we are here I love that him losing the other ones added so much value to him here. If he had won worthless Basel as a +150 I bet he would be the favorite here too but it has been too long since people saw him hoist a trophy and they are myopic as hell with regard to gambling.... let's take advantage.

Only way they look smart is if he is fucking hobbled and it really is hopeless, but I seriously doubt that. Is he jaded? Can he did deep and get the adrenaline kicking in like he does at slams or is this event not big enough for that? I think on the cusp of finishing the best season ever he will find a last gasp and seal it with the WTF that every fucker on the planet knows he deserves this year. I have made similar health bets before without much success lately so I also think I am due for a hit in this area--it can be lucrative! Good luck!

I think the main question is Djoker's motivation. I remember clearly how he did the last two WTFs because I had money on him many times in the WTF one way or the other the last few years I have watched... He is amazing indoors on this surface, first off. He did not make the cut for the semis at 2-1 in 2009. That year he had a 12 match winning streak or more coming in and seemed tired. Then in 2010 he had the Davis Cup beckoning right after and like he said when talking about WTF, "I can get back there every year I feel but Dais Cup is perhaps once in a lifetime chance."

I think with no DC to distract him, having been off the radar a bit lately ad not playing full tournaments like he had before the WTF in 09, and most of all this being the Fifth Slam and the icing on the cake to his greatest season I think will cause him to max out. Is he really going to worry about making his injury worse with two months off before the next major? He should max out for this one internally. He wears his emotions on his sleeve and was clearly jaded in the previous tournaments so I think we might see previews of the answer to this question early as well same as with the physical one.

I really do think people thinking Djokovic is mentally jaded is also an element in the line being what it is, and that I think is their biggest mistake of all. I know he won't be physically 100% but I think he will be close enough and I think he is wise enough to max out here same as he was wise enough to "embarrass" himself in the weeks prior exactly so he would have a better shot at this tournament.

I think it is very telling that the #1 player in the world is giving the least amount of chalk among the top 4 players in their matches.

Since everyone is throwing in a lot of commentary, here are my thoughts.

Federer is favored to win this tournament for some reason. The only reason I can come up with is that no one else cares. It's the honest truth here. This is not a major tournament, and because of this there really is no glory in winning it.

Federer apparently has an ego that doesn't show, and I'm sure he will give it his all, because he doesn't have many years left. Everyone telling him to retire. He won his last 2 tournaments and wants to make a statement going into next year that he is not washed up.

It also favors federer that this is a best 2 out of 3, because due to his age, I don't think he can win a 5 setter against some of the higher seeds.

In my opinion, I think Murray wins the tournament. He's ranked so high because he's basically a male version of Wozniacki. Tries way too hard in non majors, and headcases himself out of the majors. Murray is young and skilled enough to take on a focused Federer. He also has something to prove.

Will be cheering for Federer as always though. Read bold statements for the cliff notes.

murray wins joker has zero chance!!!!

Just because the world number one is laying the least amount of chalk of the four does not mean he is the longest shot to win this tournament of the four according to those same bookies. He is the third fave behind an on fire Fed and Murray who has been on fire as well up until a few weeks ago. Berdych just beat Murray last year, is deadly indoors, and is worthy of respect, so this line does not feel like a solid alarm that Novak is done like a say Novak -150 would be.  If it moves toward that range I will listen to and share your paranoia a bit more, no doubt, but right now it is still north of the all important (IMO) +200 mark.

also Fed is defiitely the fave but I think +190 is a bit light for this guy vs a tough field at his age, even in these ideal circumstances.

Murray would have to beat two men in the semis and final that have historically owned him, in a row, in front of his supporters, who he always sucks in front of due to the pressure, in what would be the biggest tournament win of his career. Even with two of his competitors seemingly on the ropes I think odds are one of them comes back to form and that should be enough with Fed to keep Murray +300-ish as not big enough odds for me. Fair at best imo.

Rafa's chances seem truly bleak. Much more bleak than Novak imo and only a hundred or so extra points

I could not find any value on these three myself which is why I saw a health play on Novak as my only option. I think the second option would be to play Federer myself. If Novak is not healthy enough to really compete then it is hard not to see Roger beating Andy and Rafa.

btw Fed said last year, "The WTF really is like a Fifth Slam so winning it is a big deal." Yeah he had just won the thing but I think he believed it. I have watched the WTF for two years and other than round robin tanks I can only remember a few matches where players where too jaded to give it their all. I remember a ton of super intense matches in just the last two years like Davydenko-Djokovic, Davydenko-Federer, Federer-Del Potro, Nadal-Murray last year (one of the most intense matches ever!!!), etc. I mean come on, it is clear they are maxing out and IMO it is the same as they do in a slam. i dont know about you but if i had one last week to wrap up the year and a HUGE amount of time off afterward i would for sure want to max out. they had the week off to catch their breath and prepare to max out and here it comes.

I see a ton of guys writing every year on the net that people do not give a shit about the WTF. It is more money and ranking points than anything but a slam and has a lot of prestige. Last year someone absurdly stated that Nadal would tank the WTF for the Aussie Open and people even agreed with him--next thing you know he is saving match points against Murray and giving his life to get to that final in an event he supposedly would not care about. And with all of them but rare exceptions it has been the same.

This tournament is huge. Just because some players and moreso fans are too tired to appreciate it does not change the fact that the players involved are clearly motivated. This is not some late season 250 or 500..... it even trumps a Masters Shield....

bp is the man

I'll admit that I'm not an expert at tennis, although you have seen me around the forums, so it's not like I don't know how to bet it.

I just noticed last year, while Nadal was owning Federer, and Federer recently had lost to Joker and Birdman. Then Fed goes through tournament like fire, and Nadal seemed to tank vs. people he would never lose to if it were a major.

My post, and this thread, has more to do with the Djokovic/Berdych match. My point was that Berdych really isn't even Djokovic's league. The man has only lost like 3 matches all year? To have him at only -230 sounds too good to be true, but you never know.

That is the cheapest price I've seen all year on Djokovic except in Finals with Nadal, and the -185 he was giving to Fed in the US Open when Fed was playing his best tennis of the year.

On a last note, I hate Djokovic, but will admit the man has talent, plays incredible defense, and is great at hitting his spots.

I'll hit joker, risking $100.00...

LINE SHOULD BE STEEPER

 

 

thank god tennis has the Joker .........Nadal is no fun, no personality,

Joker, has more personality, dances after matches, Fed is the same as Nadal no Personality,

 

BORING!!!!!!!!!!

I love to see the Joker piss all over Nadal, I will be surprised to see the day Nadal Beats the Joker again Nadal

Fed is about done also, couple more yrs and we will no longer see FED in the Finals anymore ...

 

for those who bet on Joker to win Paris ATP, did you get to have ur money back after he withdrew from the match vs Tsonga and the tournament?

(no you dont get your money back if Djoker retires, not on a futures bet)

And just like that Djokovic drops from +435 to +260 to win this tournament (updated odds before his match, up now at 5dimes) without even stepping onto the court yet. Imagine what he will be if he straight sets Berdych today.

Yeah, I would say we got in at a great price. Glad I popped that thing for five units. Payout would be huge. Now let's hope his health hods up Fish style.

it dropped because murray lost.

joker 2-0

yeah Dan I know. I had a "friend" who bet on Ferrer live.... Murray is done for the tournament and Djoker is the heavy fave in that group now to advance and face the number two from the other group.

I still think +265 is a fair price on a clear health play. This Berdych match is important. I put a half unit on him to win 2-0 at +500 in case it gets out of control, other than that do not plan on hedging at all. If Djoker is as hobbled as some think he will retire or get rolled. I seriously fucking doubt it though.

i also put a unit on Ferrer +2800 to win tournament. Why not? +23 units on futures bets investments minus some hedges.... doubtful but he is in the semis and Rafa might not be so I could easily see him in the final in which case the 28-1 will have afforded one any number of chances. Honestly I think as of the update Ferrer is the best value since he is peaking and the bookies do not seem to even have him locked into the semis yet. A 2-0 in sets with two question mark opponents to come? He is in IMO.

I had two units on it but with you on it will double the amount. That was just to get me started in case he rolls him like he might if healthy.

I respect Berdych talent wise a lot but mentally not at all. Djokovic will hang with him for a tight first set but once he gets ahead Tomas rolls over quickly. And I feel like if it goes down any other way I will see it coming.

This fucker can play man. He beat the fuck out of Troicki the moment he wanted to his last match on court. He knew it would not be easy to lose to Tsonga even if he tried so he pulled out without even taking the court after trying to throw Troicki a bone the round before. He was ready to rol over for him until Troikci started choking and choking and made Djokovic realize that it would be easier to just beat him and get out of there. Troicki was only +300 for a reason and I was on it... painful bullshit to watch, but Djokovic had it in him to play when he wanted to and I think he should have even more today to dig into reserves wise.

gl bp! birdman is a choker. lets hope nole rolls him.

in my mind im prob gonna find the answer to all my questions bout Novak in this match. to me with how shit everyone is atm Berdych might really be the best test for our boy outside of the King himself, who he should avoid until the final.

fuck BP awesome write-ups makes me wanna get back in here for the upcoming season