I'm interested in possibly doing tennis betting professionally. For now, I'm tracking how I do. I'm specifically gonna target women's tennis, as the men's is pretty brutal in my opinion and if anything seems like you can only bet dogs. I'll post each play and see how we end up. Sometimes will and will not provide an analysis. I'll be using the bovada odds for every wager
Today -
Badosa +1.5 sets -400
Sabalenka -1.5 sets -450
Frech +1.5 sets -500
Kostyuk -400
Krejkiova -425
Pays 1.83
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm interested in possibly doing tennis betting professionally. For now, I'm tracking how I do. I'm specifically gonna target women's tennis, as the men's is pretty brutal in my opinion and if anything seems like you can only bet dogs. I'll post each play and see how we end up. Sometimes will and will not provide an analysis. I'll be using the bovada odds for every wager
Krejcikova. Sorry for butchering that. Analysis - Sabalenka I like mainly because Tsurenko just doesn't have a serve. Gonna be vulnerable to return winners all day. And while she is a strong baseliner, she just doesn't hit as hard as Sabalenka. Sabalenka will get free points off returns, on serve, and the bigger hitter in rallies. I think it's gonna be very hard for Tsurenko to win a set here. And I'm not big laying 1.5, but this just feels to be a real mismatch. Frech I like to just win a set. She tends to play a ton of 3 setters vs players her level or lower. She has more experience than her opponent and is very consisent. Doesn't give away tons of free points. If she loses in straights so be it. Badosa I like a lot to win a set vs Anisimova. Anisimova won in straights her first 2 matches. She beat Samsonova in round 1 who is so polarized with winners and errors. Then Podoroska who she hit return winners on left and right. Anisimova has a game that works great vs softer hitters. When she plays someone with a respectable serve and some power from the back of the court, she really gets challanged because she has no variety and just tries to power through. Historically, she plays a ton of 3 setters. I think Badosa to win just 1 set is a lower variance +EV play here. As for Krejcikova, I just think this may be a bridge too far for Sanders. Sanders has a good serve, strong forehand. But Krejcikova has an even stronger serve and hits even bigger. Sanders has had the better serve through qualifiers and either the bigger hitter/even with her opponent in power. I just don't think she has any advantages here. Lastly, I like Kostyuk. Feels like a bad matchup for Avanesyan. Avanesyan likes to move the ball around, force errors. Works great against players like Sakkari who just completely implode at times. I mean she was shanking routine balls and returns left and right. But Kostyuk is a good mover, hits the ball well on the run, has more power, has a vulnerable serve but still better than Avanesyan which is just a point starter. I see no advantages literally anywhere for Avanesyan so I'm willing to lay the 400 here
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Krejcikova. Sorry for butchering that. Analysis - Sabalenka I like mainly because Tsurenko just doesn't have a serve. Gonna be vulnerable to return winners all day. And while she is a strong baseliner, she just doesn't hit as hard as Sabalenka. Sabalenka will get free points off returns, on serve, and the bigger hitter in rallies. I think it's gonna be very hard for Tsurenko to win a set here. And I'm not big laying 1.5, but this just feels to be a real mismatch. Frech I like to just win a set. She tends to play a ton of 3 setters vs players her level or lower. She has more experience than her opponent and is very consisent. Doesn't give away tons of free points. If she loses in straights so be it. Badosa I like a lot to win a set vs Anisimova. Anisimova won in straights her first 2 matches. She beat Samsonova in round 1 who is so polarized with winners and errors. Then Podoroska who she hit return winners on left and right. Anisimova has a game that works great vs softer hitters. When she plays someone with a respectable serve and some power from the back of the court, she really gets challanged because she has no variety and just tries to power through. Historically, she plays a ton of 3 setters. I think Badosa to win just 1 set is a lower variance +EV play here. As for Krejcikova, I just think this may be a bridge too far for Sanders. Sanders has a good serve, strong forehand. But Krejcikova has an even stronger serve and hits even bigger. Sanders has had the better serve through qualifiers and either the bigger hitter/even with her opponent in power. I just don't think she has any advantages here. Lastly, I like Kostyuk. Feels like a bad matchup for Avanesyan. Avanesyan likes to move the ball around, force errors. Works great against players like Sakkari who just completely implode at times. I mean she was shanking routine balls and returns left and right. But Kostyuk is a good mover, hits the ball well on the run, has more power, has a vulnerable serve but still better than Avanesyan which is just a point starter. I see no advantages literally anywhere for Avanesyan so I'm willing to lay the 400 here
Honorable mention - Haddad Maia. I thought about including her which would have made this parlay +250. I just don't have a strong feel for Timofeeva at this point who I expected to lose last round. Haddad Maia has a much better serve than Wozniacki, and a better forehand. However, she's not a great mover and at times massages the ball around and sprays errors. This could be a line just based on name recognition and not current form so I just couldn't include that.
And I forgot to mention the original post is a parlay. I'm not sure if I want to track each bet individually and for the units. Maybe I will I'll have to decide that. So would be interesting to see the profit with just parlays vs each individual bet.
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Honorable mention - Haddad Maia. I thought about including her which would have made this parlay +250. I just don't have a strong feel for Timofeeva at this point who I expected to lose last round. Haddad Maia has a much better serve than Wozniacki, and a better forehand. However, she's not a great mover and at times massages the ball around and sprays errors. This could be a line just based on name recognition and not current form so I just couldn't include that.
And I forgot to mention the original post is a parlay. I'm not sure if I want to track each bet individually and for the units. Maybe I will I'll have to decide that. So would be interesting to see the profit with just parlays vs each individual bet.
So we got taken in the tush by Anisimova. lol. Is it just me or is her rack far more massive than I remember? Got 4/5, but Badosa blew the 4-1 lead in the first set unfortunately. Anisimova just overpowered her for the most part. It's really about all the serve. You gotta return well vs Anisimova and you have to place your serves well.
We're gonna have 2 unit and 1 unit plays. 2 unit plays are gonna be less legs to the parlay, but more confidence generally. That was a 2 unit play so we're -2.
Betting each play individually you'd be exactly even right now. I'll continue to post that.
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So we got taken in the tush by Anisimova. lol. Is it just me or is her rack far more massive than I remember? Got 4/5, but Badosa blew the 4-1 lead in the first set unfortunately. Anisimova just overpowered her for the most part. It's really about all the serve. You gotta return well vs Anisimova and you have to place your serves well.
We're gonna have 2 unit and 1 unit plays. 2 unit plays are gonna be less legs to the parlay, but more confidence generally. That was a 2 unit play so we're -2.
Betting each play individually you'd be exactly even right now. I'll continue to post that.
Willing to lay with Navarro vs Yastremska. Navarro is very impressive. Has improved a lot. Lots of power. Solid serve, pretty decent return. Not a great mover, but not bad either. Just a very good ball striker. Yastremska hasn't won big matches throughout her career. She'll often light it up for one set and be terrible the other 2. Goes for broke on every shot. Unreliable serve and too many double faults. All sorts of errors. I'll take my chances. As for Kalinskaya, she's played Stephens twice and won a set each time. I like Stephens as she's very classy on and off the court as opposed to Serena who is an attention person, but Stephens isn't the same player. She massages the ball around and just makes bad errors at times. She doesn't take the ball early and plays a lot more defense these days. Serve can be good at times, but a non factor at other times. Kalinskaya is a solid baseliner with power and I think she can rush Stephens a bit at times. Stephens upset Kasatkina, but Kastakina has little power on her shots and Stephens was able to get to all sorts of balls so it ended up being decent match up for her. Stephens also plays a ton of 3 setters so just making a low variation play there
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Analysis -
Willing to lay with Navarro vs Yastremska. Navarro is very impressive. Has improved a lot. Lots of power. Solid serve, pretty decent return. Not a great mover, but not bad either. Just a very good ball striker. Yastremska hasn't won big matches throughout her career. She'll often light it up for one set and be terrible the other 2. Goes for broke on every shot. Unreliable serve and too many double faults. All sorts of errors. I'll take my chances. As for Kalinskaya, she's played Stephens twice and won a set each time. I like Stephens as she's very classy on and off the court as opposed to Serena who is an attention person, but Stephens isn't the same player. She massages the ball around and just makes bad errors at times. She doesn't take the ball early and plays a lot more defense these days. Serve can be good at times, but a non factor at other times. Kalinskaya is a solid baseliner with power and I think she can rush Stephens a bit at times. Stephens upset Kasatkina, but Kastakina has little power on her shots and Stephens was able to get to all sorts of balls so it ended up being decent match up for her. Stephens also plays a ton of 3 setters so just making a low variation play there
Burel is a solid play vs Dodin. Burel is really improving. She moves around the court well, spreads the balls around, has variety. Doesn't make a ton of errors. Dodin likes to play power tennis. But her serve isn't always on, and she's prone to errors, doesn't move that well and in terms of power isn't like Ostapenko who hits winners on one shot every time. Also, would be surprising to see her beat Pegula and lose to a much inferior player here right after. Svitolina should take care of Golubic. Golubic had a decent matchup first 2 matches. She does a lot of slicing, and that slicing isn't gonna work vs Svitolina who looks like a top 10 player right now. Svitolina moves well, plays good defense, doesn't make a ton of errors, is respectable around the neck, and has become more offensive and playing with a bit more power. Her serve isn't amazing, but she'll get some free points. Golubic gets very few free points on serve. Then for the 1 unit play, I'm willing to bank on Ostapenko winning a set. She and Azarenka play lots of 3 setters. It's very difficult right now to oust Ostapenko in straights given how many winners she hits on returns and how many 1 shot winners she hits in rallies if you don't get her off her spot. Azarenka is a solid hardcourt player. She could win this match. She returns well, but serve has always let her down at times and I think you gotta make her win in straights her and say congrats if she does. Ostapenko is just a handful right now. As for Blinkova and Paolini, I really like Paolini's game. I just have a hunch this will be hard though. Blinkova hits huge. Neither player has an amazing serve. Paolini moves well and has power off both wings, but Blinkova is one of the bigger hitters on tour. Blinkova doesn't have to be a great mover here to win points because of that. If you don't outhit Paolini, you're in big trouble and I always back Paolini in those spots, but here is a player that hits huge and after that magical win vs Rybakina I don't see her gong down easy here.
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More analysis -
Burel is a solid play vs Dodin. Burel is really improving. She moves around the court well, spreads the balls around, has variety. Doesn't make a ton of errors. Dodin likes to play power tennis. But her serve isn't always on, and she's prone to errors, doesn't move that well and in terms of power isn't like Ostapenko who hits winners on one shot every time. Also, would be surprising to see her beat Pegula and lose to a much inferior player here right after. Svitolina should take care of Golubic. Golubic had a decent matchup first 2 matches. She does a lot of slicing, and that slicing isn't gonna work vs Svitolina who looks like a top 10 player right now. Svitolina moves well, plays good defense, doesn't make a ton of errors, is respectable around the neck, and has become more offensive and playing with a bit more power. Her serve isn't amazing, but she'll get some free points. Golubic gets very few free points on serve. Then for the 1 unit play, I'm willing to bank on Ostapenko winning a set. She and Azarenka play lots of 3 setters. It's very difficult right now to oust Ostapenko in straights given how many winners she hits on returns and how many 1 shot winners she hits in rallies if you don't get her off her spot. Azarenka is a solid hardcourt player. She could win this match. She returns well, but serve has always let her down at times and I think you gotta make her win in straights her and say congrats if she does. Ostapenko is just a handful right now. As for Blinkova and Paolini, I really like Paolini's game. I just have a hunch this will be hard though. Blinkova hits huge. Neither player has an amazing serve. Paolini moves well and has power off both wings, but Blinkova is one of the bigger hitters on tour. Blinkova doesn't have to be a great mover here to win points because of that. If you don't outhit Paolini, you're in big trouble and I always back Paolini in those spots, but here is a player that hits huge and after that magical win vs Rybakina I don't see her gong down easy here.
Ugly day. Burel was probably the biggest surprise upset. Dodin I don't think won 2 matches in a main draw of any 250 or above tournament all year and here she is in the 4th round. lol. Just bizarre. But goes to show you Pegula is in a bit of a rut because she has no business losing to Burel tbh. Navarro I may have overvalued she might have just been fatigued. Yastremska is not someone you can ever bet on. Blinkova/Paolini was a contrast of styles. Coming into the tournament I would have picked Paolini, but I thought after the magical win previously Blinkova would at least make that competitive. And Ostapenko usually at least wins a set win or lose, but Azarenka kinda just owns her. They played just a couple weeks ago it went 3 and Azarenka won 7-5 in the 3rd.
We're down 5 units in the parlays - which is the main focus here. Betting each individually -11.35 units - which is a very ugly start, but I'm not really hung up too much on individual bet. More on the parlays because that's just more feasible and long term I think it has a much higher ceiling. Also can limit your losses. Some days you just don't have it and whether you lose 1 match or 4 matches it doesn't matter. Also realistically, betting on 10-12 matches day individually is a lot of bets to make. But I will continue to track it regardless.
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Ugly day. Burel was probably the biggest surprise upset. Dodin I don't think won 2 matches in a main draw of any 250 or above tournament all year and here she is in the 4th round. lol. Just bizarre. But goes to show you Pegula is in a bit of a rut because she has no business losing to Burel tbh. Navarro I may have overvalued she might have just been fatigued. Yastremska is not someone you can ever bet on. Blinkova/Paolini was a contrast of styles. Coming into the tournament I would have picked Paolini, but I thought after the magical win previously Blinkova would at least make that competitive. And Ostapenko usually at least wins a set win or lose, but Azarenka kinda just owns her. They played just a couple weeks ago it went 3 and Azarenka won 7-5 in the 3rd.
We're down 5 units in the parlays - which is the main focus here. Betting each individually -11.35 units - which is a very ugly start, but I'm not really hung up too much on individual bet. More on the parlays because that's just more feasible and long term I think it has a much higher ceiling. Also can limit your losses. Some days you just don't have it and whether you lose 1 match or 4 matches it doesn't matter. Also realistically, betting on 10-12 matches day individually is a lot of bets to make. But I will continue to track it regardless.
Also, I should add that tennis is streaky. You can get really hot in parlays and win a ton in a short span, and then just not have it and lose for a little while. Key is to maximize the heaters. But you can win parlays that pay 10-20 to 1 all the time early in the week in tournaments.
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Today -
Sabalenka -500
Kostyuk +1.5 -460
Krejcikova +1.5 -150
Pays +143
Also, I should add that tennis is streaky. You can get really hot in parlays and win a ton in a short span, and then just not have it and lose for a little while. Key is to maximize the heaters. But you can win parlays that pay 10-20 to 1 all the time early in the week in tournaments.
Analysis - I just have a hard time seeing Anisimova win tonight. It is somewhat of a steep price. But Sabalenka will be serving aces and hitting big returns. Anisimova has been double faulting a lot this week. Holding serve won't be easy here. And unlike other matches, she can't outhit her opponent her. Sabalenka can bomb it with her, but stylistically she's kinda like Anisimova just better at it. No adv on serve for Anisimova, no adv on return, no adv in rallies. I think Sabalenka actually beats her in all 3 categories. Kostyuk I'm riding to win a set vs Timofeeva who is just very young and inexperienced. She doesn't have a great serve. Kostyuk moves well and can spread the ball out. Timofeeva has looked good this week and she did win one tourney last year, but she has all sorts of horrendous losses. I think she's due to lay an egg. Wozniacki should have beaten her early on, but match fitness probably did her in. Lastly, I think the odds are good on Krejcikova to win a set. I believe she played Andreeva before and got hammered, but Andreeva is overvalued in the betting market. Great player, but they really beef up the prices. She has struggled vs power players. Krejcikova can get easy points on serve and hits bigger in rallies. Will come down to whether she just makes a million errors, but I think she can pull out a set and quite possibly the win on top of it
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Analysis - I just have a hard time seeing Anisimova win tonight. It is somewhat of a steep price. But Sabalenka will be serving aces and hitting big returns. Anisimova has been double faulting a lot this week. Holding serve won't be easy here. And unlike other matches, she can't outhit her opponent her. Sabalenka can bomb it with her, but stylistically she's kinda like Anisimova just better at it. No adv on serve for Anisimova, no adv on return, no adv in rallies. I think Sabalenka actually beats her in all 3 categories. Kostyuk I'm riding to win a set vs Timofeeva who is just very young and inexperienced. She doesn't have a great serve. Kostyuk moves well and can spread the ball out. Timofeeva has looked good this week and she did win one tourney last year, but she has all sorts of horrendous losses. I think she's due to lay an egg. Wozniacki should have beaten her early on, but match fitness probably did her in. Lastly, I think the odds are good on Krejcikova to win a set. I believe she played Andreeva before and got hammered, but Andreeva is overvalued in the betting market. Great player, but they really beef up the prices. She has struggled vs power players. Krejcikova can get easy points on serve and hits bigger in rallies. Will come down to whether she just makes a million errors, but I think she can pull out a set and quite possibly the win on top of it
Analysis - Not a believer in Yastremska. I think she maxed out last round. Azarenka returns well, redirects well, just an overall very accurate ball striker with a great backhand. Far more accomplished on a hardcourt and does well vs these types of opponents. Yastremska is like a mini Ostapenko. Svitolina I think should be able to win 1 set vs Noskova. Noskova plays a lot of 3 setters. She's not a great mover. Svitolina moves very well and redirects and probably has a higher floor at times than Swiatek. I'll take my chances there. And Paolini I think has a favorable matchup vs Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya is solid, but isn't really great at one thing. Paolini is the faster player. She'll get a lot of returns in play and she'll be able to move the ball around the court well and get Kalinskaya on the run. When Kalinskaya doesn't hit through you and doesn't get you to make errors, it becomes a problem because she doesn't have a lot of variety. Paolini has plenty of power in her ground strokes and given her movement I really don't see her as a dog here. Kalinskaya also plays a ton of 3 setters so I think it's pretty reasonable Paolini can win at least 1 set here
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Analysis - Not a believer in Yastremska. I think she maxed out last round. Azarenka returns well, redirects well, just an overall very accurate ball striker with a great backhand. Far more accomplished on a hardcourt and does well vs these types of opponents. Yastremska is like a mini Ostapenko. Svitolina I think should be able to win 1 set vs Noskova. Noskova plays a lot of 3 setters. She's not a great mover. Svitolina moves very well and redirects and probably has a higher floor at times than Swiatek. I'll take my chances there. And Paolini I think has a favorable matchup vs Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya is solid, but isn't really great at one thing. Paolini is the faster player. She'll get a lot of returns in play and she'll be able to move the ball around the court well and get Kalinskaya on the run. When Kalinskaya doesn't hit through you and doesn't get you to make errors, it becomes a problem because she doesn't have a lot of variety. Paolini has plenty of power in her ground strokes and given her movement I really don't see her as a dog here. Kalinskaya also plays a ton of 3 setters so I think it's pretty reasonable Paolini can win at least 1 set here
Also with Svitolina, forgot to add she doesn't make a lot of errors and is more offensive on top of being a great defensive player. So very bullish on here for now. If Noskova wins that in straights oh well.
I do a lot of +1.5s btw to minimize the variation. Many of these matches you have small dogs that can win, but very unlikely they do they do it in straights and play mostly 3 setters in their wins vs better opponents. I take someone straight up when I see way more value in the ml than the +1.5
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Also with Svitolina, forgot to add she doesn't make a lot of errors and is more offensive on top of being a great defensive player. So very bullish on here for now. If Noskova wins that in straights oh well.
I do a lot of +1.5s btw to minimize the variation. Many of these matches you have small dogs that can win, but very unlikely they do they do it in straights and play mostly 3 setters in their wins vs better opponents. I take someone straight up when I see way more value in the ml than the +1.5
Alright we found a winner. Down 2.14 units in parlays. -5.35 units betting indivdiudually. Yesterday was a 2 unit play forgot to specify Today 2 unit play - Azarenka -300 Svitolina +1.5 -450 Paolini +1.5 -190 Pays +149
First one already in major trouble.
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Quote Originally Posted by fluffystuff69:
Alright we found a winner. Down 2.14 units in parlays. -5.35 units betting indivdiudually. Yesterday was a 2 unit play forgot to specify Today 2 unit play - Azarenka -300 Svitolina +1.5 -450 Paolini +1.5 -190 Pays +149
Down 4.14 units in parlays, which is the focus. -15.25 units betting individually. This is a year long thread. Generally speaking, the main money to be made is on Mondays and Tuesdays and Wednesdays. There are parlays that pay 10-1 or more that can be hit all the time. Hit a few of those which I have many before and that puts you way ahead. Ultimately, the season is really defined by those big parlay scores. You hit a 12-1 a few times a month and you're way up.
In retrospect, I believe the Paolini play was fine - but not Azarenka. Azarenka doesn't win in straight sets back to back matches all that match and she did that vs Ostapenko. Yastremska has nothing to lose and had played Azarenka before in tighter sets. Still, Azarenka had at least 1 set point that first set I recall and that cost her. Collapsed after up 3-0 second set. Kalinskaya made almost no errors vs Paolini. A bit fluky in my opinion. Paolini had 3 break points up a game second set didn't convert any and that changed the entire second set in my opinion. It's one bet though we move on.
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Down 4.14 units in parlays, which is the focus. -15.25 units betting individually. This is a year long thread. Generally speaking, the main money to be made is on Mondays and Tuesdays and Wednesdays. There are parlays that pay 10-1 or more that can be hit all the time. Hit a few of those which I have many before and that puts you way ahead. Ultimately, the season is really defined by those big parlay scores. You hit a 12-1 a few times a month and you're way up.
In retrospect, I believe the Paolini play was fine - but not Azarenka. Azarenka doesn't win in straight sets back to back matches all that match and she did that vs Ostapenko. Yastremska has nothing to lose and had played Azarenka before in tighter sets. Still, Azarenka had at least 1 set point that first set I recall and that cost her. Collapsed after up 3-0 second set. Kalinskaya made almost no errors vs Paolini. A bit fluky in my opinion. Paolini had 3 break points up a game second set didn't convert any and that changed the entire second set in my opinion. It's one bet though we move on.
Btw, Yastremska and Kalinskaya having the tournament of their careers. Neither have gone deep in any major events last couple years. Hard to handicap that garbage when it happens. Kalinskaya has more staying power than Yastremska though. I think either Zheng or Kalinskaya takes out Yastremska next round
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Btw, Yastremska and Kalinskaya having the tournament of their careers. Neither have gone deep in any major events last couple years. Hard to handicap that garbage when it happens. Kalinskaya has more staying power than Yastremska though. I think either Zheng or Kalinskaya takes out Yastremska next round
For all intents and purposes, I will include almost no men's. But sometimes for pot juicers with 1 unit plays I might include them. If Murray loses Benoit Paire then I guess so be it? lol. Really not the type of match he loses Paire is a disaster and has been for a while. Korpatsch I included for an additional play because Erika Andreeva really isn't good enough to play 250 to anyone decent on a hardcourt. And Korpatsch is decent and has solid rally tolerance. If she gets crushed it's only 1 unit it's fine
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1 unit play -
All of the above PLUS
Korpatsch +1.5 -125
Andy Murray -350
Pays +560
For all intents and purposes, I will include almost no men's. But sometimes for pot juicers with 1 unit plays I might include them. If Murray loses Benoit Paire then I guess so be it? lol. Really not the type of match he loses Paire is a disaster and has been for a while. Korpatsch I included for an additional play because Erika Andreeva really isn't good enough to play 250 to anyone decent on a hardcourt. And Korpatsch is decent and has solid rally tolerance. If she gets crushed it's only 1 unit it's fine
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