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Indianapolis at Chicago (02/04/2007)

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Posted: #551
COLT$ -7 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ COLT$ WIN BUY 9 COLT$ IS MONEY
 
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Posted: #552
I am 10 miles north of the stadium......not raining at present and the wind is calm
 
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Posted: #553
Has anyone been following the season?  The AFC is not only better than the NFC,  The (NFC) must stand for NoT F_ _king Close.  Put away all fears and play 90% of your bankroll on the colts. 
 
Read this post after the game, clip it out and go the bank, or Clip it out, place it on your forehead for all to see.........
 
In case the Colts lose...... Keep that 10% for juice  :)      
 
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Posted: #554
hey fish naked is rain movin  in ?????????????  and thanks
 
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Posted: #555
Ok horsey boy im ridin to town
 
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Posted: #556
Quote Originally Posted by here2contribute:

BEARS/OVER (AS ALWAYS) with a BEARS ML
 
For right now, just two words in my analysis FIELD POSITION!!!
 
A little more in-depth analysis on the game, but a few things to point out from two of the real cappers if you missed it - Hammer picked the Colts and one of the on-line guys that is 14-0-2 in SB and doesn't get his props on this site also picked the Colts.
 
With that being said, no need for in-depth analysis on the O/U as I have been on that over all year, but the last regular season game. 
 
Let's look at trends (which I know you don't believe in TD, but they just seem to bear (pardon the pun) fruit in big games for some reason).  Someone (sorry can't remember who) posted last week the cover trend (teams that cover through playoffs cover in Super Bowl.  I think is 8-1-1 or something like that last 10, but I think that is balanced out by the trend that Ripper pointed out above that most of us are probably aware of.  Well, here is one trend, that gives the edge to the Bears in my mind.  Posted in SI.  This will be the fifth SB that the top defense has squared off against the top offense and the top defense has come on top every single time.   In addition, NO team has won a Super Bowl if they were last in rush defense.  There also is the dome factor, but I agree with some of the posts above that there really isn't a big enough representative sample to say this is a negative trend against the Colts.
 
We can go on and-and-on about trends, but here is how I see the game stacking up:
 
1)  Colts can certainly take advantage against the Bears in the middle of the field (should be open against the cover 2), but I just think that Urlacher is going to play the game of his life and take that middle away from Manning.  Bears are much stronger on the DB side and they should be fine against Harrison and Wayne IF they can get the help from the safeties deep.  Also, I have commented a few times about the weak Bears pass rush, but they are playing Anderson much more and they are getting a better pass.
 rush.
2)  Bears pass offense is nowhere near as bad as all of the naysayers keep talking about.  Berrian and Muhhammed are both tall, strong receivers that match up well against the Colts defense.
3)  Let's talk about the Colts defense a minute.  Yes, they have been playing much better, and certainly surprising the hell out of me, but 3rd and Long commented (good info BTW) that Sanders AND Harper are the keys to stopping the run.  Well, all indications to me are that Harper is nowhere near 100%.  We saw what happened last year when he had that stab wound against the Steelers.
4)  Running Backs - Give me Jones/Benson over Rhodes/Addai anyday.
5)  Turnovers - Bears led the league in causing TOs, and we all know that TOs are HUGE in big games.
6)  Special Teams - THE NO. #1 factor in my mind that totally favors the Bears (and helps the over).  The Colts cover special teams were absolutely horrible against the Patriots, and that is plays right into the hands of the Bears overwhelming advantage (Hester).   For all of Viniateeri's strength's he can't kick deep.  Mark my words, either Hester returns one for a TD, and (or) the Bears starting field position averages around the 38 yard line.  Also, people do not give Maynard enough credit.  This guy is an absolute machine at kicking the ball inside the 20-yard line.  FG kickers - even in my mind. 
7.)  Intangibles -
 
A.)  How can the Bears be a touchdown dog?  OK, Colts were 6-0 against mutual opponents and Bears were 5-2, but here is what the numbers don't say, the NE loss was the Bears 3rd game in a row on the road, and as gamblers we know that is the kiss of death.  The Miami game was when the Bears were starting to believe all the hype, and they came out flat.  Why we are on this subject, the other Bears loss was the last game of the season, when Favre was fired-up, the Bears had alrady clinched home field, and Grossman admitted he was prepared.
B.)  Bears are playing with the huge underdog chip on their shoulder
C.)  This is basically a road game for both teams, and you need to be able to have a strong run defense to win on the road.
D.)  Weather and field conditions favor the Bears.
E.)  Let's just say that the Colts come out strong and start stomping the Bears.  Does anyone really think that Dungy is going to run up the score on Lovie (BTW, this may be the ONLY thing that makes this an under game)?  Lovie wasn't at that first Colts playoff game because he was scouting.  These guys are geniune friends, and Dungy will not enbarrass Lovie by winning by more than a TD.
 
Gentlemen, I am personally sticking with Bears (+7.5)/Over (48 got in too early) and a parlay.  Originally like the ML, but after seeing JT's post and looking at it more closely, the Bears should have been about +240 I believe, so there was not enough value there.  Also, one prop bet, 3rd quarter highest scoring at 7/2.
 
Good luck enjoy the game!!!!
 
     
 
 
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Posted: #557
on my way Ed got some  and some  lets play ball  oh ya I changed my mind I'm  today!! suprise hu !!
  greg O out!!!
 
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Posted: #558
bears plus 131/2 under 55 20 units will never wager again if this is not a lock. Am in south fla. and has been raining all day.
 
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Posted: #559
 
Still not raining 10 miles north of the stadium. Good luck all.
 
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Posted: #560
OK here 2, i liked your post, one glaring error, Dungy will not let his winning get in the way of his friendship and neither will Smith. Both will run up the score if they can but neither would score if taking a knee ends it.
While the game is on the other team and their coaches are opponents, im sure to be respected, but not coddled
 
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Posted: #561
The rest of my plays-
 
Colts 1st qtr -1 -120 $250
Colts 2nd qtr -3 -110 $250
Colts 3rd qtr -1 -130 $250
Colts 4th qtr -1 -110 $250
Colts over 28 team $250
First turnover Chicago $250 -140
Indy last score $250 -130
Over 13 pts 4th qtr $200
 
Good luck all, Go Colts
 
 
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Posted: #562
All gamblers know that anything is possible. That being said from a gambler's perspective this has got to be a Colts pick. They will be more able to block out the distractions of the week as they play huge games every year and always get everyone's best shot. The Bears aren't ready to take the next step yet, lack offensive leadership and aren't playing at home. The Colts seem to play better on the road, while the Bears have needed that homefield rush. Finally, I have been on the Bears all the way throughout the playoffs bc they had the extra all-powerful motivation of the disrespected dog. For this game they are getting plenty of media love and that chip has been removed from their shoulder. Manning should move the ball with plenty of 5 and 10 yard passes, but what will the Bears if the Colts stack the box and take away the run? Leave it to Rex to throw 30 times? All points to Colts 23- Bears 13 IMO. GLA
 
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Posted: #563
KEEP IT SIMPLE........
 
 
 
 
COLTS MONEYLINE...... 500 UNITS
 
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Posted: #564
Total has dropped to 47 in the last hour....was 47.5 earlier and was 48 last night...went from Indy -7 to -6.5 overnight as well...
 
Good luck all!
 
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Posted: #565
Almost forgot - Over 47 1 dime Colts -6.5 + over 47 $300 to win $1200.(reverse) Godd luck gentlemen.
 
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Posted: #566
WOW..Billy Joels hairline looks like mine!!!
 
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Posted: #567
Heads won the toss....hope you head guys cleaned up!!!
 
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Posted: #568
Had Tails
See you at halftime & commercials Scorpio
 
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Posted: #569
HELLO CHICAGO...7-0!!!
 
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Posted: #570
Bears start in regular..will try to cover Clark with a LB...
 
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Posted: #571
Holly fuck boys, that was an amazing run.
 
Rizz
 
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Posted: #572
BEARS!!!!!!!  Holy Crap!!!!!
 
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Posted: #573
Nice start for the Bears....anyone here??
 
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Posted: #574
Watch them run in down their throats here...belly plays, toss sweeps and wham blocks!
 
 
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Posted: #575
Wonder if Prince will do "Raspberry Beret?"
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