Goose u hit it on the head. Thanks brother. And I never said I liked an nba games today not sure where my BOY Scal got that one from. Oh and Scal and anyone else who cares I was with the Milf again last night at her crib this time. I made my video this am as I was driving back from her crib. Reason I'm letting u know is so u can keep my "day after Milf slay nonsense record which u enjoy.
If you freakin drove last night after a 12 pack or more,and avoided a DUI,dude you had a winning nite.Prob 10k swing..
You really wanna be riding a bike to bet baseball and grocery shop for 6 months? .No need for the gym.then tho...Listen to AD he has his garbage together and probably same age as you.
That out of the way,Best wishes on your plays today.Wanna see you up 6k by your 1st full month.
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
Goose u hit it on the head. Thanks brother. And I never said I liked an nba games today not sure where my BOY Scal got that one from. Oh and Scal and anyone else who cares I was with the Milf again last night at her crib this time. I made my video this am as I was driving back from her crib. Reason I'm letting u know is so u can keep my "day after Milf slay nonsense record which u enjoy.
If you freakin drove last night after a 12 pack or more,and avoided a DUI,dude you had a winning nite.Prob 10k swing..
You really wanna be riding a bike to bet baseball and grocery shop for 6 months? .No need for the gym.then tho...Listen to AD he has his garbage together and probably same age as you.
That out of the way,Best wishes on your plays today.Wanna see you up 6k by your 1st full month.
These numbers are just so not true. Just because a guy hits 60 percent at 170 bets, there is no stat that can say he will hit over 52 percent for the next 170 games. Flawed math at its finest.
Trying to predict somebodys long term winning percentage is just like that person trying to predict the winner of each play.
170 games lmfaoooooo
You're perfectly right there's nothing predictive in in it, just retrospective, clumsily put by me. The maths or statistics are not flawed thouth, just my interpretation of it when I wrote those paragraphs.
You can know that someone's who hit 60% over 170 bets true capping proficiency was somewhere in the range of 52.5-67.5% with 95% probabality. It's a made up number of course since what has happened has happened.
A guy could always tilt or his betting system become irrelevant due to changes in linesetting etc, or random chance could go against him with very bad streaks, very quickly turning his previous record sour, of course. But there's no other way to judge bettors than past records, since none of us has a crystal ball, right? I'd say it's a very useful parameter especially when comparing bettors.
Hence I'd tail the guy with a 55% record over 2000 bets any day compared to the guy with 65% over 50 bets.
Here's a link I recommend for some theory on judging betting records, though the calculations apply to the somewhat more complex money line:
These numbers are just so not true. Just because a guy hits 60 percent at 170 bets, there is no stat that can say he will hit over 52 percent for the next 170 games. Flawed math at its finest.
Trying to predict somebodys long term winning percentage is just like that person trying to predict the winner of each play.
170 games lmfaoooooo
You're perfectly right there's nothing predictive in in it, just retrospective, clumsily put by me. The maths or statistics are not flawed thouth, just my interpretation of it when I wrote those paragraphs.
You can know that someone's who hit 60% over 170 bets true capping proficiency was somewhere in the range of 52.5-67.5% with 95% probabality. It's a made up number of course since what has happened has happened.
A guy could always tilt or his betting system become irrelevant due to changes in linesetting etc, or random chance could go against him with very bad streaks, very quickly turning his previous record sour, of course. But there's no other way to judge bettors than past records, since none of us has a crystal ball, right? I'd say it's a very useful parameter especially when comparing bettors.
Hence I'd tail the guy with a 55% record over 2000 bets any day compared to the guy with 65% over 50 bets.
Here's a link I recommend for some theory on judging betting records, though the calculations apply to the somewhat more complex money line:
Got an early lead. Was up 7, 27, and tied at halftime yesterday in my 3 games and went 1-2. Need Boatright to be a star today for me. He's off to a good start. Biggest thing now with a 15-8 lead is to keep playing lock down D
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Got an early lead. Was up 7, 27, and tied at halftime yesterday in my 3 games and went 1-2. Need Boatright to be a star today for me. He's off to a good start. Biggest thing now with a 15-8 lead is to keep playing lock down D
UCONN up ten. Keep it up show no mercy. This team embarassed u in Dallas. Now time to return the favor. Great d and let's close this out get the K plays to 4-2! Skip no play for me. I think Colorado covers tho if I had to pick it
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UCONN up ten. Keep it up show no mercy. This team embarassed u in Dallas. Now time to return the favor. Great d and let's close this out get the K plays to 4-2! Skip no play for me. I think Colorado covers tho if I had to pick it
CG.............Just checked out your You Tube stuff..............Fukken great stuff bro......GL today.......I believe you will have a strong bounce back week in CB......Goes in streaks bro, you know
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CG.............Just checked out your You Tube stuff..............Fukken great stuff bro......GL today.......I believe you will have a strong bounce back week in CB......Goes in streaks bro, you know
It's like I'm in a slump lol yet my record this week is 6-5 and I'm up money lol. I just overreacted to the trolls questioning my passion because I wanna get laid too out here... Uconn was up ten looks like a CG esque' meltdown before half?
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It's like I'm in a slump lol yet my record this week is 6-5 and I'm up money lol. I just overreacted to the trolls questioning my passion because I wanna get laid too out here... Uconn was up ten looks like a CG esque' meltdown before half?
It's like I'm in a slump lol yet my record this week is 6-5 and I'm up money lol. I just overreacted to the trolls questioning my passion because I wanna get laid too out here... Uconn was up ten looks like a CG esque' meltdown before half?
yesterday on covers i learned if i lose one game means im in a slump
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
It's like I'm in a slump lol yet my record this week is 6-5 and I'm up money lol. I just overreacted to the trolls questioning my passion because I wanna get laid too out here... Uconn was up ten looks like a CG esque' meltdown before half?
yesterday on covers i learned if i lose one game means im in a slump
I like CG, feelings are still hurt over that tragic video, but I know cocaine and booze gets the soul going, I forgive CG, but I actually love the fact that he has mentioned me in three videos now, I don't know why cause SCAL and VANZACK are his enemies here, they fuk with him a lot...One guy BET AGAINST him. for christs sake...
But no hard feelings, i have bipolar feelings too, i hope you get a lot of pusssy...
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I like CG, feelings are still hurt over that tragic video, but I know cocaine and booze gets the soul going, I forgive CG, but I actually love the fact that he has mentioned me in three videos now, I don't know why cause SCAL and VANZACK are his enemies here, they fuk with him a lot...One guy BET AGAINST him. for christs sake...
But no hard feelings, i have bipolar feelings too, i hope you get a lot of pusssy...
Tdog ur my boy ur a sick Fuckk like me I respect that. Uconn up 7 need this one to get my swagger back. I'm meeting this cute 41 year old Asian chick from adultfriendfinder tonight. Excited. After my bets are over though of course
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Tdog ur my boy ur a sick Fuckk like me I respect that. Uconn up 7 need this one to get my swagger back. I'm meeting this cute 41 year old Asian chick from adultfriendfinder tonight. Excited. After my bets are over though of course
A uconn meltdown would not be good to say the least. A win and then a michigan state cover and I'm above my previous peak profit. Need Purdue then later but I mean u would hope Sparty and Purdue could just compete bc at +9.5 that means two covers. Need uconn first tho a meltdown is possible despite any lead with my teams at any moment
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A uconn meltdown would not be good to say the least. A win and then a michigan state cover and I'm above my previous peak profit. Need Purdue then later but I mean u would hope Sparty and Purdue could just compete bc at +9.5 that means two covers. Need uconn first tho a meltdown is possible despite any lead with my teams at any moment
Bermax - thanks for the link to the Kelly formula. Agree with your comments about small sample size (it's not worth my time to go back any further and disprove - the 3 - 6 - 13 - theory) as well as the comments on the Kelly formula - however - my point - we all need to have an edge (I use data, algorithims, etc - if I have something that has proven itself, over and over - it will be a bigger wager) - if CG has a spreadsheet where he collects, organizes and analyzes the data (or whatever method he uses and has an edge) - understanding the concept - MAY-help him determine bet size.
Goose - This is in regards to your baseball betting question - you posed to Shanski - I read a book about baseball betting a long while ago (would love for someone to name the book as I can't remember) - they interviewed a sportsbook manager - He indicated - 95% of the opening line in baseball was based on the Starting Pitcher - one year they dropped it to 90% and they got killed. That indicated to me - the key driver is the Starting Pitcher - I don't even look at hitters during the season and it's my most profitable sport.
Shanski, Vanzack, Bermax, Hutchemall - I appreciate your comments and insight.
CG - good luck in your choices - and really appreciate your openness and willingness to share in the journey.
Group Hug :)
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Bermax - thanks for the link to the Kelly formula. Agree with your comments about small sample size (it's not worth my time to go back any further and disprove - the 3 - 6 - 13 - theory) as well as the comments on the Kelly formula - however - my point - we all need to have an edge (I use data, algorithims, etc - if I have something that has proven itself, over and over - it will be a bigger wager) - if CG has a spreadsheet where he collects, organizes and analyzes the data (or whatever method he uses and has an edge) - understanding the concept - MAY-help him determine bet size.
Goose - This is in regards to your baseball betting question - you posed to Shanski - I read a book about baseball betting a long while ago (would love for someone to name the book as I can't remember) - they interviewed a sportsbook manager - He indicated - 95% of the opening line in baseball was based on the Starting Pitcher - one year they dropped it to 90% and they got killed. That indicated to me - the key driver is the Starting Pitcher - I don't even look at hitters during the season and it's my most profitable sport.
Shanski, Vanzack, Bermax, Hutchemall - I appreciate your comments and insight.
CG - good luck in your choices - and really appreciate your openness and willingness to share in the journey.
CG, why is this $1000 wager any different than any of your others? You are sounding like this bet is crucial towards your mindset. Why? It is a very short term way of thinking, and putting everything from last night aside, that line of thinking needs be changed. Do we all want to win every bet? You're damn right we do.
But right now your approach sounds like a short term one, not a long term one.
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CG, why is this $1000 wager any different than any of your others? You are sounding like this bet is crucial towards your mindset. Why? It is a very short term way of thinking, and putting everything from last night aside, that line of thinking needs be changed. Do we all want to win every bet? You're damn right we do.
But right now your approach sounds like a short term one, not a long term one.
Ranger (handshake). I like the group hug idea a lot of anger yesterday that's no way to get along. Not to sound like a fagg but glad to see everyone's hostility down today myself included most of all
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Ranger (handshake). I like the group hug idea a lot of anger yesterday that's no way to get along. Not to sound like a fagg but glad to see everyone's hostility down today myself included most of all
You say you don't get too high after wins, or too low after losses. So why is this game so crucial towards your long term success? If you are confident in your abilities, the outcome shouldn't have any impact whatsoever on your mindset.
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You say you don't get too high after wins, or too low after losses. So why is this game so crucial towards your long term success? If you are confident in your abilities, the outcome shouldn't have any impact whatsoever on your mindset.
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