Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

Woo - posted this way back in this thread at post #1260, but I think it got lost in all of the MILF slaying and bromeister talk.

So maybe it is worth a repost...

CG - quit talking in terms of "days".

Days are an arbitrary time period set by you to help you compartmentalize and organize.  Forge the concept altogether.

A winning day or a losing day should mean nothing to you - just like a set amount you bet per day should not exist.  This goes to what I posted above - if a wager qualifies as a play - you should bet it no matter if you have already bet 20 other wagers that day - and if it doesn't qualify - you should not bet it.

Part of the problem of having a non-quantitative approach (gut feel) is that you tend to bet by days.  You have no way to compare if todays 8th best game is better than last Mondays 1st best game.  I get the feeling that you wouldn't bet todays 8th best game because you limit yourself to a certain maximum number of plays per day - even though todays 8th best game is better than tomorrows 1st best game that you will bet.

This is tough concept to get out of because as humans we do this with everything.  It helps us navigate the world.  But it makes no sense in the gambling world.  People that hedge say this all the time.  They say "it is guaranteed money" - but they are thinking about that bet on that day - forgetting that over the course of many hedges they are giving away money.

It is counter-intuitive, but important to understand.

Great post Hutch.  I also think gamblers are lazy by nature (myself included).  Gamblers want something for nothing - or at least close to nothing.  Watching a game is the most "work" they want to put in to it - so that is why there is a ton of misinformation and myths - and also probably why there are bad lines too.

So when you mention to a gambler that in order to win more - you have to work more - and study more - and do all of the non-fun stuff - it goes by the wayside. 

Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:




I'm just glad you are finally listening about Bankroll percentages.  3% - 5% is where you need to be on every wager.  I understand this might be a little out of your comfort zone.  Maybe consider some $770 or $880 base level wages instead of the Nickles.  Those extra $100 bills really add up and will come in handy during the Dog Days of Summer Baseball.

GL CG

I don't want to beat a dead horse...  So let me know if this is not interesting to the discussion.  But...

I don't understand how any discussion of betting amounts or betting percentages can possibly exist outside of the discussion of at least 3 other critical factors.

1.  Goal
2.  Win %
3.  Amount of plays in time period

If he bets "3-5%" as you suggest, but only bets 10 plays a month, how is he going to survive winning 2 units a month at 800 bucks?

If he bets 3-5% as you suggest, and he needs 5k a month to survive, and his win percentage is 55%, and can only make 30 bets a month....  Well - I think you see where I am going.

Hutch articulated it really well in a post above.  He called it "working backwards" - which is probably a much better explanation than my longwinded blowhard attempts to explain it.  WORK BACKWARDS TO COME UP WITH YOUR MONEY MANAGEMENT.

It is the only way.

CG,

I love you brother and I do want you to succeed and I if I were
there I'd treat you to some blow and hoe fo sho!
The thing is you just cant succeed as Van/Hutch said under your present formula.
You think the best analyst on covers (Vanzack) bet on your not making it erroneously?!
This is due to various reasons but the fact is that you need CASH FLOW.
Also for a realistic longterm risk to ruin you really should not even be betting 3-5% of your bankroll per bet. IT SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 2% PER BET, (and this is really how the top dogs operate in this business). By the way people like to refer to Billy Walters blah, blah, blah. I want you to know something about that guy: Betting is only one of the many ventures he does and he has accumulated his wealth OUTSIDE OF SPORTSBETTING; he is very secretive about his exact betting profile, (no one really knows truly knows but I'm sure he is not betting anywhere near 10% vig).
 Like I said before you need 100K + bankroll first off to get your needed cashflow every month. 2nd off you need to get offshore and shop for low vig. This is not optional for your survival. You can do it if you are crafty which I believe you are. Stop resisting this concept. All the best cappers/analysts on covers have told this to you.

 DR

DR - sharp as usual.  I like this part about BW, but you can make this example for a lot of pro type of guys.

The average sports bettor looks for "picks".  Whats the pick?  Who you picking today?

The truth is, even with a winning percentage of picks - the average sports bettor will go broke and not even know why.  Sounds impossible, but it is not only impossible - it is the norm.

That is why I have a hard time responding to those who ask about posting picks.  I can tell you from my little corner of the betting universe - that "picks" are only a small part of how I am profitable.  Things like line speculation, buying and selling positions, situational in game betting - those are what I call multiple income streams.  When one is up, another might be down - but it is diversification - and all income streams are profitable longterm.

So it reduces overall exposure to variance swings - and focuses on longterm growth.  Kind of exactly what mutual funds do in your 401k.

A guy like BW has probably hundreds of income streams - a lot probably outside of sports gambling - but certainly within sports gambling too.  I worry about a one prong approach using "picking" as the focus.

Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:




I'm not disagreeing with working backward.  That IS the only way to hit your numbers.  BUT, by NOT Flat Betting, CG can manipulate the win % down to a manageable 55% to more easily reach his goal of $5K a month.

I don't know where you pulled the only betting 30 games amonth number from?  (Out of your azz I'm guessing).  CG is operating at, what did we say?, somewhere around 80 games a month.

And I stand by my earlier statement.  $550 base wagers (1.8% of bankroll) are not going to get the job done from month to month with a $30K bankroll.  You can easily see that by CG having to nail two $1K plays to keep pace this month.

Work the numbers with an average of $880 base bet (3% of bankroll) and he hits the magic 5K a month.  Much rather see CG working in the 3% to 5% wager range so he doesn't have to double his $550 base bet and then hold his breath for four hours a week sweating out two different $1K plays.  THAT is the recipe for disaster.

Again, CG probably feels uncomfortable with a 3% $880 base bet.  My only advice to that is he'd better grow up in a hurry.  You want to play with the big boys CG?  It's sink or swim time.  Stop jerking around with 1.8%ers and start getting serious in the 3 to 5 % range.  Or else you just might be home by Football season.  And I'd rather NOT have to listen to Van and Scal and Brady and all the bloviating haters, naysayers, and backstabbers. 

I'm on YOUR side CG.  Been talking to you for quite a while now.  Can you EVER, name me ONE time, you've gottten bad advice from me on any subject?  NO WAY.  In fact I've had the foresight to point out many potential problems and you know this to be FACT.

Now go out there CG and start kicking some serious Major League Azz.

Goose -

I did pull the 30 example out of my behind.  I did that because I don't think I have heard clearly from CG what his expected monthly selection number would be.  I wouldn't want to assume that the last 2 weeks is normal unless he says it is.

I think we just have to agree to disagree here.  I don't think you can take a percentage of bankroll and say that is a right percentage to wager - in a vacuum.  There are many other factors.

And I really hate repeating this - but there are no bloviating (well bloviating applies to me) haters, backstabbers, or naysayers in this thread.  Do you think I post all of this to harm CG?  Or to wish him bad luck?  Or to hope he doesn't make it?  It is all in an effort to help - because as EVERYONE who has posted constructive criticism has stated - we want to see him succeed.

2/24/15

Locked and loaded this one in on the strip at around 11:25 am pacific standard time..

Maryland Terrapins +6.5 (-110) $1100/$1000

I thought honestly this spread would be Wiscy -2... insane value imo getting a team who 16-1 at home and who averages more rebounds per game believe it or not than wiscy at +6.5

Wiscy has been steamrolling teams but I honestly think this is a 2-3 pt game either way and hence my Maryland +6.5 bet... I would be not shocked at all if the Terps won this ballgame straight up.

My only play of the day...

bol all enjoy your Tuesday and good luck with ur plays