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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

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Legend
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Posted: #2176

Nice Bermax.

I cant believe it even averages around 52%.

My guess is that all dogs for that period average about 52% too?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #2177
52 percent is better than 48 percent vanzack hits every year....
 
Legend
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Posted: #2178

Hey Bermax -

Never in the first 8 posts of any poster have I been more interested in hearing what someone has to say.

Care to tell me more about what you do?  How you do it?

If this thread isn't the proper forum, we can start a new thread.  That's if you want to share.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #2179
change that stupid profile pic, dude, you're making a stupid kid your IDENTITY.
 
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Posted: #2180
THE 3, 6, 13 THEORY IS NBA ONLY, BUT CAN BE USED FOR NCAAB 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2181
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Nice Bermax.

I cant believe it even averages around 52%.

My guess is that all dogs for that period average about 52% too?


50.90% actually, certainly not a statistically significant mean difference.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2182

Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

52 percent is better than 48 percent vanzack hits every year....

I love this.

State that it is 63% by pulling a number totally out of your azz, and when proven wrong try a lame attack on someone else to deflect.

FWIW - I could probably make money picking 48%.  I wont argue how wrong your statement is - but I will take offense to the fact that you think I would still be unprofitable picking 48%.  I can squeeze money out of your mamas piehole.  Profitability is my only focus, not "picks".

But since you asked, I went about 62% documented over 170 NFL games the past 2 years.  All posted here.  But what do facts mean to a guy who makes up percentages based on how he feels?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2183
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

And if the line is 3.5 most places, but 3 at a couple of places....

Are you supposed to take the +3 instead of +3.5 because 3 is the magic number?

This is the -215 rule all over again.  Never let it be said that morons aren't born every day.  Who could replenish the moron pool at covers otherwise??

Please answer this TDog.  It is providing a good bit of comedy for me and a few of my buddies monitoring this thread.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2184
I am also very interested in BERMAX'S information

VAN MUCH RESPECT
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2185
There has been only one inefficiency (that I have been able to find) in the NCAAB market the past 7 years, and I will share it with you below.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4_F0w4VZKaCc0MxNlpZN250SDQ/view?usp=sharing

These kind of analyses are always retrospective, keep that in mind, not a sure predictor of future results. This trend has held steady for 7 seasons straight though.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2186
Quote Originally Posted by freestlyin:

I am also very interested in BERMAX'S information

VAN MUCH RESPECT

Much respect right back at you.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #2187
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Please answer this TDog.  It is providing a good bit of comedy for me and a few of my buddies monitoring this thread.


THE THEORY ONLY APPLIES TO NBA ROAD DOGS...GO BACK AND RUN THE NUMBERS, BECAUSE IT'S VERY CLOSE TO 63 PERCENT....AND CHANGE THAT STUPID PIC, YOU DON'T WANT TO IDENTIFY YOURSELF LIKE THAT.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2188
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

There has been only one inefficiency (that I have been able to find) in the NCAAB market the past 7 years, and I will share it with you below.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4_F0w4VZKaCc0MxNlpZN250SDQ/view?usp=sharing

These kind of analyses are always retrospective, keep that in mind, not a sure predictor of future results. This trend has held steady for 7 seasons straight though.

That's road favs between -10 and -15.5?  Hitting in the upper 50's?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2189
Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:


THE THEORY ONLY APPLIES TO NBA ROAD DOGS...GO BACK AND RUN THE NUMBERS, BECAUSE IT'S VERY CLOSE TO 63 PERCENT....AND CHANGE THAT STUPID PIC, YOU DON'T WANT TO IDENTIFY YOURSELF LIKE THAT.

Simmer down junior.

Adults are talking here.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #2190
You're not an adult, you don't even work.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2191

Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

You're not an adult, you don't even work.

Jealous?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2192
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

That's road favs between -10 and -15.5?  Hitting in the upper 50's?


No, it's road dogs actually (the way my data is structured the line number is always defined as the home teams line) priced at +10 to +15.5 (opening line), covering the closing line (regardless of what it has drifted to) at this rate.
 
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Posted: #2193
Not jealous of a man who SITS AT HOME all day...Even if I made millions, I would still work....Work is what defines a man....Change that pic,dude, just don't try to get CG banned, ok? 
 
MVP
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Posted: #2194
Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

You're not an adult, you don't even work.

That's a compliment, not an insult bud.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2195
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:


No, it's road dogs actually (the way my data is structured the line number is always defined as the home teams line) priced at +10 to +15.5 (opening line), covering the closing line (regardless of what it has drifted to) at this rate.

Thanks.  Intuitively makes more sense that way.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2196

Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

Not jealous of a man who SITS AT HOME all day...Even if I made millions, I would still work....Work is what defines a man....Change that pic,dude, just don't try to get CG banned, ok? 

Good.  I will let my co-workers at my charitable foundation know that you think so highly of my work ethic.

They will be as thrilled as I am that you have approved of my lifestyle.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #2197
College 4 point teaser 30% Juice I haven't done one in years I seriously don't bet college basketball& hardly Nba I pretty much a lot football & little baseball .But your journey, picks. Video& analysis. been good . Not brown nosing , like few I will leave nameless Anyway teaser today just added $33-25 clev pick/ Michigan St -4 Since you picked both maybe you want to small play $130-100 What do you think again , don't listen to me .On the other hand these are your picks . Love Cavs are on TNT . I don't have Direct Don't need , I work a lot nights . If I want to watch game go to great sports bar .I use to work @ Silky Sullivan's in Fountain valley, ca Gooble it someday . If got time look @ Sports Advisors , a lot good free info .Some picks there's I like & others stay away Bottom line you can't get to much info out there. Hopefully it's good You know that since you handicap injuries, Road trip,strength schedule ,etc Good luck to all love to see everyone's strongest play today .Thanks Out
 
Captain
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Posted: #2198
CG.

Did some more research. Funny because I ended up taking Michigan State and backed off the Cavs.

Nonetheless, BOL buddy 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2199
Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:


THE THEORY ONLY APPLIES TO NBA ROAD DOGS...GO BACK AND RUN THE NUMBERS, BECAUSE IT'S VERY CLOSE TO 63 PERCENT

I do have NBA data 2008-2014 also but only in moneyline format closing odds (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4_F0w4VZKaCREx5V1NPUkhPZ2s/view?usp=sharing). Realised I could make a crude spread conversion though using a table like this one:

https://www.sportility.net/nba/moneyline_points.html

running the numbers for road dogs +3 +6 and +13 gives the road ATS at:

151-152-15
50-55-3
5-6-1
-----------
206-213-19

This says nothing about opening lines or movements though. Personally I'll stay away from that system of yours regardless.
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #2200
So, you're saying 206-213 is NOT close to 63%?

I'm shocked.

Shocked, I tell you............
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