Houston Open

Write up later, but played one on open 

Davis Thompson (35-1)

Nick Dunlap (200-1)

Taylor Moore (60-1) 

The PGA tour wraps up the Florida swing this week and are headed to Texas for the Houston open. This is a pretty solid course to play in preparation for the masters, as there are some similarities to Augusta at Memorial Park in terms of pure length and some quirky, undulating green surfaces with short grass green side surrounds. This is a long par 70 venue measuring out at 7,412 yards (4th longest on tour) where we have seen a lot of bombers off the tee have success. This course lends itself to that style of play given the rough is not very penal, allowing longer guys to gain an edge with shorter approaches into greens. It’s a relatively tough course where the winner is usually in the mid teens, which can certainly be made tougher with Texas winds that we tend to see.

There’s just not much trouble off the fairways, so I prefer guys that are longer than average off the tee. We’ve seen guys like Tony Finau, Stephen jaeger, and Thomas detry play well here in the past 2 years. Who all have a similar off the tee skill set of long and sometimes erratic. This skill set is flooded all over leaderboards in recent memory at this event. Memorial Park absolutely favors distance over accuracy off the tee and is one of the key prerequisites I’ll be dialing in on.

This is one of the tougher courses on approach, ranking as a top 10 course in difficulty hitting greens. These are large, fast green surfaces that do have undulations making hitting the correct quadrant of the greens important to get birdie looks. Most approaches come from 150+ yards, with a lot of long irons over 200+. I’ll be looking for guys that are in form on approach and are good long term long iron players. Although I don’t think this is the most important statistic this week for a change with the edge you can gain with length off the tee and consistent around the green play.

These greens being so difficult to hit brings an added importance on around the green play. There are alot of difficult short grass chips around the greens here into speedy undulated greens that will challenge these guys in a way similar to Augusta. Around the green play on this golf course is actually an area we’re you can gain an edge, accounting for a big chunk of strokes gained on the leaderboard year after year. Guys will end up in some uncomfortable, tight lies which will warrant a solid around the green player in this spot.

To wrap this up, I think the ideal skill set on this golf course is length off the tee, relatively good long term long iron play, and really competent scramblers. With these greens being pretty tough to hit for even elite approach players, I will put an added weight on distance and scrambling. I’ll also be looking at some ancillary stuff such as 3 put avoidance which will be needed on these large green surfaces, and players that have had success on these long courses with little missed fairway penalty and tight lies around the greens such as Augusta, quail hollow, and of course memorial park history. I put these 3 in once lines opened

Davis Thompson (35-1)

Taylor Moore (60-1) 

Nick Dunlap (200-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Davis Thompson (+280)

Top 20 (ties included):

Min Woo Lee (+150)

Min Woo Lee (40-1) 

D.Thompson 29/1…

M.Meissner 185/1…

Valimaki FRL T10 after round 1 12/1…

Break a legg…

Couple positional adds, will be back in a bit to wrap up the card 

Top 20 (ties included):

Taylor Pendrith (+187)

Matti Schmid (+400

Love both Thompson and Meissner this week, around the green gods which should be rewarded on this track 

GL dude 

@Rollz

Outrights:

Davis Thompson (35-1)

Wyndham Clark (37-1)

Min Woo Lee (40-1)

Taylor Moore (60-1) 

Nick Dunlap (200-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Davis Thompson (+280)

Wyndham Clark (+320)

Top 20 (ties included):

Min Woo Lee (+150)

Taylor Pendrith (+187)

Max Greyserman (+225)

Matti Schmid (+400)

Taylor Moore WD, may pick 1 up live to replace the outright on him 

Thomas Detry (60-1)

Regretting not taking the Pendrith outright, but do have min woo and Thompson both tied for 2nd. Once again we’re seeing length all over the leaderboard here. 

Feels like schefflers tournament to lose, but at least there’s a chance for a sweat heading into Sunday. 

I got Min Woo Lee at 35-1, Davis Thompson also at 35-1. Bet Rory +2000 going into R3. 8 back, don't think it's possible, even if he shoots 60.

Anyone in the 4 guys behind that concerns you other than SS? It was good you passed on Pendrith. Is SS worth a play at +550?

I used Lee because he should be motivated after that R3 at the Players. He was playing good, that weather was a factor as well.

Hell yeah, gl to us  I think min woo is capable of imploding and letting any of these guys at -11 or better back into the mix. Luckily there’s not a lot of trouble on this golf course so I think that is less likely here. I like our chances man, unfortunately scheffler is lurking 5 back and would not shock me at all if he makes it really interesting at some point, but I likely won’t be doing any hedging unless it’s later in the round when I have more certainty. I wouldn’t blame you for a small scheffler hedge at that number right now though 

GL to US - well said...

I have a 3 player prop parlay - Clark T10 / Thompson T10 & Lee T20. Wish I could flip one of those. Clark is +210 to make Top 10, he's a shot out and the so many guys above him don't have his pedigree. I love him at that price. Thompson concerns me.

Any other course, could see Lee blowing this. Unless he goes out and shoots an even or -1 day, he wins this. 

@Whackamole

 Agreed, studied hard on Scottie at +550 this morning, but don’t see them catching MW

Time to sweat some golf friends, min woo looking dialed out of the gate. Surely nothing will go wrong  Positionals looking promising with 4/6 in play 

Min imploding. looks like he will shoot in the 70s. what a choker 

Is Min really going to blow a 5 shot lead? ???????

@Rollz

 Crushed it this week!! Great job 

LFG fellas Congrats to anyone who backed min woo this week, it was truly a perfect course fit. Actually hit jaeger here last year too, it’s a pretty predictable course IMO where bombers and short game studs have a huge edge. 3/6 on positionals and 40-1 on min woo outright for a profitable week. On to Valero