2010-2011 NFL Investment Plays

I am starting this thread starting with week #2 of the pre-season.  I posted week #1 plays in a couple other different forums and I will continue here at covers also so the previous plays I am posting can be verified with my other 2 forums I just didn't know if I can post other forum thread links here.  If I can let me know and I will post the link to verify my previos plays and record.  Here is my philosophy with wagering on my best wagering/handicapping sport, football (NFL & NCAAF):

Bookmark this thread as it will be my last. My purpose of a new thread is to get a fresh start with the first pre-season game getting under way tomorrow night.

Gambling: The wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Typically, the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period.

Investment: The commitment of money or capital to purchase financial instruments or other assets in order to gain profitable returns in the form of interest, income, or appreciation of the value of the instrument. [1] It is related to saving or deferring consumption.

I consider legal sports wagering an investment rather than a gamble. If a game has a outcome we can turn it into an income. BOL this season!

Final Plays for week ending 08/23/2010. For what its worth after week #1 the pre-season overall record is 10-3 (Totals:6-0; Sides:4-3)

Summary of Plays and write-ups for week #2.

08/20/2010
Philadelphia @ Cincinati OVER 35.5, -110
Cincinati will have no problem scoring in this game just as they did in their last game. Palmer will get plenty of opportunity to toss some balls to newely aquired T. Owens. Ocho Cinco should get more passes thrown his way this week compared to the one pass reception he registered in their last game versus the Bronco's. Historically in the pre-season the Eagles do much put much emphasis on winning but they have had no problem scoring as their last 8 pre-season games have gone OVER the posted total and I look for that to continue here.

08/21/2010
Baltimore @ Washington UNDER 38.5, -110
The Redskins had no problem scoring last week versus the Bills but their fortunes will change this week versus the Ravens. In their last game the Ravens held the panthers to just 12 points while scoring only 17 points themselves. Since J. Harbaugh's arival in Baltimore the under is 7-2 the past 9 games and 15-5 in the Ravens last 20 pre-season games. Last week the Ravens rushed the ball 27 times compared to only 15 pass completions. In comparison Last week the Redskins rushed the ball 47 times compared to 18 pass cpmpletions. The Redskins score was inflated due to 3 Bills tournovers, dominating the time of possession and compliling a 4-4 scoring ratio in the red zone. Those numbers wont be that dominating versus a real good Ravens defense.

Pittsburgh @ NY Giants UNDER 36, -110
Last week the Steelers held the Lions scorless for three out of four quarters with the Lions sole touchdown in the 2nd quarter. The Steelers rushed the ball 35 times keeping to their strength while holding the Lions to 79 yards on the ground and 3.3 yards per rush. The Giants may be without their quarterback Eli Manning which will really hurt their offensive production. In the Steelers last 18 pre-season games the 16 have gone UNDER the posted total. In a 7 game stretch the past two years the under has gone UNDER the total in all 7 games.

Miami @ Jacksonville OVER 36, -110
Miami +2, -110 @ Jacksonville
Miami only mustered 10 points last week versus the Bucs but that should change this week facing a Jags defense that gave up 28 points to the Eagles last week. Miami was limited on offense last week due to being dominated by time of possession only holding the ball for 24 minutes. This should change this week as the Dolphins will face off against a Jags team that should focus more on the pass than the rush providing the Dolphins more offensive opportunities. In the Jags last 21 pre-season games 15 have gone OVER the posted total. In contrast the Dolphins were 4-0 straight up last season in four exibition games they are 8-1 straight up in their last 9.

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay -2.5, -110
Tampa Bay lost last week scoring just 7 points versus the Dolphins but that should change this when they face a Kansas City team that is a abismal 1-12 ATS in their last 13 pre-season games dating back over 3 years. Quite simply I will fade the Chiefs this pre-season until they prove otherwise.

Houston @ New Orleans OVER 40.5, -110
Both the Saints and Texans played to the OVER in their pre-season games last week. This game will not be a defensive struggle but rather we should see the ball flying all over the field. Last season these two teams met in the pre-season and they combined for 52 points and this game should be no different. In the Texan's last 13 pre-season games 10 have gone OVER the total. Last week both teams combined for 72 pass attempts in their respective games and if that is consistent of what will happen this week this game will have no problem going over the posted total.

Oakland @ Chicago OVER 34.5, -110
The Radiers scored 17 points last week and they face off this week against a Bears defense that gave up over 330 total yards to the Chargers. The Raiders on the other hand will be facing a Bear offense that historically has not had a problem putting points on the board in exhibition play. In exhibition weeks 1-3 the Bears have seen the total go OVER in 10 of their last 13 games covering a 3 1/2 year span.

Green Bay @ Seattle OVER 38.5, -110
Last week we played the Green Bay/Cleveland OVER and the play was a winner at the half. The over is 13-4 in the Packers last 17 pre-season games and with their wide open game play in the pre-season the past few years we should see more of the same. These two teams combined for 72 pass attempts last week almost 500 yards in the air. This game should easily reach a game total in the mid to high 40's.

08/22/2010
Minnesota +3.5, -110 @ San Francisco
Well Favre is back and if he sees action this week it will do nothing but help our play on the Vikings. I believed the Vikings would win this game straight up versus the 49ers when I posted the play and with Favre, even though he will see limited action if he plays, that has not changed. This is a good spot for Minnesota as they have not lost in week #2 of the pre-season since 2005. The Vikings were very impressive last week putting up 28 points on the board albeit it was versus the Rams. The 49ers also put points on the board last week but this week it will be against a stingy Vikes defense, not the porous defense they saw last week in the Colts.

Here are a few insights with regards to wagering pre-season NFL Football:

The biggest mistake alot of people make with regards to wagering on the pre-season is they wager using the same methods and techniques as if they were wagering on the regular season. So, first you must understand that you are wagering on exhibition games and not the regular season and as I have stated in previous posts they are two totally different animals.

Second you may have seen me post write-ups which include a certain coach and their teams's prior pre-season record and team preformance. The coach dictates the level of talent he will put on the field, the coach dictates whether or not his team will focus more on the rush/pass and the coach is more likely to focus on his team's weakness rather than their strength. For example I played the over in the Jacksonville/Philadelphia game in week #1 of the pre-season and in my game write-up i mentioned Jacksonville usually uses this time of year to really work on their passing game and as a result they had 34 pass attempts with only 9 rush attempts and the game total finished OVER the posted total.

Statistics are used in a different way during handicapping in the pre-season compared to the regular season. If a team has had a poor pass defense in the past during the regular season they are more likely to rotate alot of defensive players to find the right mix to get ready for the regular season and it is the same for the their rushing defense. Each team's goal is to work on their weaknesses to get better and more efficient in those areas for preparation for the regular season. This leads me to my next point of emphasis and why QB rotations are also very important.

A team with two good Quarterbacks will both be given more playing time by their respective and the purpose is to find a starter for the regular season. Teams with a no quarterback controversy are more likely to not use their starter as much and utilize their backups more and this is the reason the Indianapolis Colts historically have played poorly in the pre-season. I do not think any of their backup Quarterbacks are threatening Mr. Mannings starting job. If these teams that are playing their top two quarterbacks who are fighting for the starting role play against a historically good defense such as the Ravens or Steelers they will likely be playing against that particular teams reserve defense while they rest their starting defense to avoid risking injury.
Third, a team with bad offensive and defensive lines in the past are more likely to rotate alot of players at that position to try to find a core of talent to prepare for the regular season.

Finally, my pre-season handicapping includes more emphasis on past team trends/coaching trends rather than team and individual/team statistics which, in the regular season those areas are reversed and I put more emphasis on Individual/team statistics rather than team trends/coaching trends. This is why I include several trends with my pre-season write-ups and this is why i have more pre-season plays than I do in the regular season.

Here are a few insights with regards to wagering pre-season NFL Football:

The biggest mistake alot of people make with regards to wagering on the pre-season is they wager using the same methods and techniques as if they were wagering on the regular season. So, first you must understand that you are wagering on exhibition games and not the regular season and as I have stated in previous posts they are two totally different animals.

Second you may have seen me post write-ups which include a certain coach and their teams's prior pre-season record and team preformance. The coach dictates the level of talent he will put on the field, the coach dictates whether or not his team will focus more on the rush/pass and the coach is more likely to focus on his team's weakness rather than their strength. For example I played the over in the Jacksonville/Philadelphia game in week #1 of the pre-season and in my game write-up i mentioned Jacksonville usually uses this time of year to really work on their passing game and as a result they had 34 pass attempts with only 9 rush attempts and the game total finished OVER the posted total.

Statistics are used in a different way during handicapping in the pre-season compared to the regular season. If a team has had a poor pass defense in the past during the regular season they are more likely to rotate alot of defensive players to find the right mix to get ready for the regular season and it is the same for the their rushing defense. Each team's goal is to work on their weaknesses to get better and more efficient in those areas for preparation for the regular season. This leads me to my next point of emphasis and why QB rotations are also very important.

A team with two good Quarterbacks will both be given more playing time by their respective and the purpose is to find a starter for the regular season. Teams with a no quarterback controversy are more likely to not use their starter as much and utilize their backups more and this is the reason the Indianapolis Colts historically have played poorly in the pre-season. I do not think any of their backup Quarterbacks are threatening Mr. Mannings starting job. If these teams that are playing their top two quarterbacks who are fighting for the starting role play against a historically good defense such as the Ravens or Steelers they will likely be playing against that particular teams reserve defense while they rest their starting defense to avoid risking injury.
Third, a team with bad offensive and defensive lines in the past are more likely to rotate alot of players at that position to try to find a core of talent to prepare for the regular season.

Finally, my pre-season handicapping includes more emphasis on past team trends/coaching trends rather than team and individual/team statistics which, in the regular season those areas are reversed and I put more emphasis on Individual/team statistics rather than team trends/coaching trends. This is why I include several trends with my pre-season write-ups and this is why i have more pre-season plays than I do in the regular season.

Sorry for the double post

After this week I will only be posting in the sbrforum.

www.sbrforum.com

Sorry about post #10 I will be posting here I just posted the link to verify my record for week #1.

Quote Originally Posted by TaxEvasion:

Excellent writeup and information. I will be checking in on this thread often.I saw you had the cincy/philly over 35. Do you still like it at 38? Any comments would be appreciated.

I played and posted it at OVER 35.5

I would play the total at any number under 40.