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After going through si1ly's breakdown sheets from Monday's (7/16) games, I noticed that when only ONE of the two teams had a 40+-point swing in the positive direction (towards being a FAVE) between the Projected M/L and the M/L, that favorite won those games.
1.) BAL @ MIN: MIN's projected M/L was +127 to M/L was -120 = 47 points (Game Result: MIN 19-7 W)
2.) WAS @ MIA: MIA's projected M/L was +144 to M/L was -115= 59 points (Result: MIA 5-3 W)
Then, I looked at the Sunday (7/15) breakdown sheets, and this trend continued.
1.) LAA @ NYY: LAA's projected M/L was +145 to M/L was -105= 50 points (Result: LAA 10-8 W)
2.) STL @ CIN: CIN's projected M/L was +135 to M/L was -150 = 85 points (Result: CIN 4-2 W)
3.) HOU @ SF: SF's projected M/L was -129 to M/L was -230 = 101 points (Result: SF 3-2 W)
Then I researched further on the 7/15 games and saw that it worked in the backwards direction as well for 30+ point swings for HEAVYprojected M/L favorites:
1.) WAS @ MIA: WAS's projected M/L was -192 to M/L was -140 = 52 points (Result: WAS 4-0 W)
2.) TEX @ SEA: TEX's projected M/L was -242 to M/L was -160 = 82 points (Result: TEX 4-0 W)
3.) DET @ BAL: DET's projected M/L was -197 to M/L was -165 = 32 points (Result: DET 4-0 W)
Also, notice that the RL has covered in 7 of these 8 games.
Will do some further research to see if there is a significant trend past these 8 games. Thanks to si1ly for posting these breakdown sheets for us all to us!
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