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AussieCapper NBA (Box Score System)

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Prospect
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Posts: 292
Posted: #801
Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:

Minnesota vs Orlando

 

Minnesota 26 27 19 23 95

Orlando    27 28 23 23  101

 

My Lines

Orlando -6

Over/Under 196

 

Real Lines

Orlando -5.5

Over/Under 189.5

 

Bet: Over 189.5

 




Hey Aussie... Great hit yesterday!!!

Sunday was one of the most difficult I have handicapped in the NBA ( 2-4 ) and dismissed this thread unfortunately  because I only saw 5 days of picks with your system and a hell of a first day Jan. 8th (10-1... WOW! )


This is what I'm not understanding though.

A) Quarter's averages are always going to equal totals averages so why do you break it down?

B) How are you getting your point totals because for example this season to date:


Minnesota PPG on the road: 96.8

Orlando PPG @ home: 95.1


( Minnesota -2 )

Total =  191.9



ALL GAMES stats

Minnesota PPG:  96.3

Orlando PPG: 92.9


( Minnesota -3 )

Total =  189.2



Your picks all look good today ( however you are doing it )  with the exception of Golden State over Phoenix.
 
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Posts: 525
Posted: #802
Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:


I only play one not the other 

I would have thought the over play was better than the spread here.  Large spreads can easily be missed through the back door cover, whereas once an over is in there is no going back.  AC your stats are a winner.  My one suggestion, if you're interested, would be to offer the stats and let people decipher their own plays, such as in this game (as they are pretty obvious).  Will be very interesting to see which if any (or both) hit in this particular game as both are very strong leans.  GL from Sydney....
 
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Posted: #803
TT
 
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Posted: #804
**ATTENTION!**   

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE  BROKEN!!
Ive been following Aussie for a while now and nothing against ya Aussie you've been killing it lately!  However there are a couple of factors that I do not think you accounted for in tonight's game, and eventually everyone's system goes cold.  (Feel free to bash this post and talk shit like several of you make a living out of.)  My system has a backbone and can take the flak cuz it is solid.

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5 
under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5
under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans
over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5
over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5
under 189.5
 
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Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 40
Posted: #805
Just the way you registered to tell him he's full of shit. I just registered to return the favor. You are an idiot.

Quote Originally Posted by crice014:

**ATTENTION!**   

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE  BROKEN!!
Ive been following Aussie for a while now and nothing against ya Aussie you've been killing it lately!  However there are a couple of factors that I do not think you accounted for in tonight's game, and eventually everyone's system goes cold.  (Feel free to bash this post and talk shit like several of you make a living out of.)  My system has a backbone and can take the flak cuz it is solid.

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5 
under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5
under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans
over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5
over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5
under 189.5
 
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Posts: 292
Posted: #806
Quote Originally Posted by BigSquirrel_7:




Your picks all look good today ( however you are doing it )  with the exception of Golden State over Phoenix.




Ope.. well actually that one looks OK too. I thought GS was playing at Phoenix 
 
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Posted: #807
Quote Originally Posted by crice014:

**ATTENTION!**   

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE  BROKEN!!
Ive been following Aussie for a while now and nothing against ya Aussie you've been killing it lately!  However there are a couple of factors that I do not think you accounted for in tonight's game, and eventually everyone's system goes cold.  (Feel free to bash this post and talk shit like several of you make a living out of.)  My system has a backbone and can take the flak cuz it is solid.

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5 
under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5
under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans
over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5
over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5
under 189.5



He is right ! His system takes other variables into account. Just watch this system is going to be a hit if used correctly. Crice014 knows what he is doing and you guys are going to be shocked 11-0 night !!! DoNKS-
Get your Chickens Right
 
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Posted: #808
AC,

I appreciate the work and the system picks
Keep killing it sir, Lets get that
 
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Posted: #809
 
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Posted: #810
 
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Posts: 1191
Posted: #811
Thanks for all the hard work, AC. 

Can someone please explain something to me.

Why break it down quarter-by-quarter?  Wouldn't taking each team's full game average work out exactly the same?  I'm lost here.

Also, does this system take into account key players who have been out due to injury, or key players who may be returning FROM an injury, which would have skewed the numbers from recent games without him?
 
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Posted: #812
What are his stats so far?
 
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Posted: #813

This has tout written all over it with all the random covers posters with the "good work aussie" posts.

 
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Posted: #814
1 down! AC! 
 
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Posted: #815
the philly play looks off! no worries! 1-1! 
 
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Posted: #816
First two overs hit.  Re my comments about the large spread on PHI, seems like the over was the safer play as the stats discrepancy was just as large but back door covers often seem to happen.

Following your stats (as opposed to picks) with v small wagers to date....
 
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Posts: 1191
Posted: #817
I just hit the Philly over and the Orlando over based on the numbers.  I never would have played either game otherwise.

I still think using this system while adding in other factors would be magical.  I'd like to see injuries accounted for, as well as teams who might have tired legs.  Utah tonight, for example.  They gutted out a tough win in Memphis last night, so they are struggling with the shitty Hornets tonight as a result.
 
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Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 1817
Posted: #818
Quote Originally Posted by crice014:

**ATTENTION!**   

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE  BROKEN!!
Ive been following Aussie for a while now and nothing against ya Aussie you've been killing it lately!  However there are a couple of factors that I do not think you accounted for in tonight's game, and eventually everyone's system goes cold.  (Feel free to bash this post and talk shit like several of you make a living out of.)  My system has a backbone and can take the flak cuz it is solid.

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5 
under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5
under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans
over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5
over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5
under 189.5

 
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Posted: #819
Utah just getting blown out! The under in the heat game in danger 
 
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Posted: #820
sigh...
 
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Posted: #821
Spoelstra needs to let the bench play!!!!
 
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Posted: #822
1-2 going 1-3 with jazz. 
 
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Posted: #823
must bounce back tomorrow, AC! 
 
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Posted: #824
u think under 203 1/2 for game for gsw phoenix
 
 
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Posts: 1244
Posted: #825
i am hoping to go 3-3 for today! it'll be acceptable. 
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