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Basketball games using the new method.

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Posted: #1

  I incorporated a new part to my method this week and said I will update the results starting yesterday (Weds). I use 3 different handicapping formats and will separete my plays accordingly. One type of play I call my consistency point spread rating. It hits about 57 to 58 % of the time over a typical season. It is always a 5 unit play. It is a simple system (for me) and it is based on a team winning at a 40% better spread mark then its opponent.  We gives points for each of the last 10 games a team covered starting with 10 for the last game played  9 for the second one back and so forth to only one for the 10th game back. I do a few other things to the 2 teams to make sure the good team's ( against the spread) energy has not been compromised.

 As for the other two methods I think we will hit over 60% and we will have more games than I thought possible when I first started doing this. Most good handicappers do  not think that is likely. We will see.

Yesterday the pointspread consistency method was 0-1. Those are always 5 unit plays

 We were 3-1 in college regular plays and 0-1 in the NBA

  10 units are the play in regular plays unless I state differently and 5 in the pointspread consistency play.

  We are + 20 in college  (3-1) and -10 in the NBA and -5 in the PS% ( pointspread consistency ) play.

 +5 for the day. I use Matchbook and get  average odds of +103 so I do not use the -110 when  I lose because that is not what I lose.

  I will update this every day.

  Today's games     Wis GB-10 1/2 ,W Milw +14 1/2

 No NBA games

   Yesterday I gave out a game (Colorado) that I posted that i said was heavily played by "smart money". I posted this soon after I gave out the game and in plenty of time to act on it. It won easily. Such games have gone 7-1 or 8-0 so far? I will have to look at my old posts to see which it is because I forgot. I do not get excited about those games but it is nice that other good handicappers like the games I like. I will give you that info when I get it. Today Wis GB was hit by some smart money. How much I am not sure, so do not count this as in the above group unless I post an update.

 

 
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Posted: #2
 Todays football game is a strong one for me. New Orleans has an 8 point advantage in total yardage over Chicago. That is very strong. Therre are other things that favor them also.  N O has been beating the spread regularly while hicago is struggling to beat it in recent games. These are 2 teams going in opposite direcions. It looks like New Orleans is a strong play unless the governor can get his bid in with the referees.
 
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Posted: #3
   There is a great deal of "smart money" going on Houston this week (NFL). It started early and has continued. Public money is going on Tenn.
     One of the great bets you can ever have is to observe games that most of the money is going on one side yet the spread is going opposite of the money!! Smart money has dictated that move.
      90% of all public money is going on Ariz this week. Though I do not know of any significant smart money on the game the public usually is wrong.
 Yesterday I was 1-1 in college no NBA plays - push on N Orl . I am 0-7 when playing a team that was covering before overtime  did not win. I am not complaining but I hope that changes.
  total  college 4-2  +20 units
           NBA    0-1  -10units
  hot /cold play 0-1  -5 units
       Today there are only 2 NBA games NEW JERSEY 10 units
        hot spread team vs cold spread team     ATLANTA 5  units
               Final exams are over with now for most schools.They interrupt my plays. We will be hitting over 60%of games though.
I probably will back down a notch next year during exam week. I back down for all basketball the 2 days surrounding Christmas.
   I told people yesterday smart money was going on the Milw game. It hit, but I did not get an update on the game so I do not count it as a smart money move game.
 
 
 
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Posted: #4
Wow two days in a row posting.
 
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Posted: #5
 Before I give out my games I want to emphasis that you can follow the opening lines and movement using  several places. Sports Insights, for example  ,specializes in this. It is an unique service and knows where the smart money moves are going. I do not use  the service but I know the guy who runs it and he is very very good at what he does.
 In NCAA basketball there was a lot of movement. Harvard was hit with a $50,000 bet right out of the gate. The line moved 2 -2 1/2 immediately. Without knowing a thing you can assume that is smart money talking.  As soon as 1 place has been hit the others adjust quickly.
  Here are my plays for Sat. Last Sat I was 7-1 in the NBA . One meaningless unguarded basket at the end cost a perfect day.
 I have no plays for the pros either today or tomorrow I handicapped it already)
  There are 12 plays today and some smart money has hit 7 of the 12.  2 of the games smart money has hit the other side. We share see. I am confident that the games I will be giving out will hit over 60% for the season. I will be giving out more games then I care too, but that is how the figures come out. I have 2 former students helping me . They are biting at the bit to take advantage of our new found information. I am not that savvy on the computer but  one of my old students is. We ran some  possible  ways of  to incorporate other information to our method and one of those turned out to be a boomdoggle.  We put the numbers to the 20,000 game data base. Keep in mind when we come up with  our games it is all mechanical. There are no emotions or changes ever made.
   Here are the games. Later, I will give you the odds and the line I got these at. The line moved on some of these.
    I just got some friends who came over so I  can not do it now.
  Games with smart money I like.
     Tenn,  E KY, Utah(heavy) , Ga St, Ulla, Evans, Port. 
    Other plays Seton Hall , E Mich, N Color
   Games that smart money is against me. Austin Peay and Wisc
 I got an average of + 105 on all games. I will give you details on my next posting
 
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Posted: #6
Interesting...thanks for the insight
 
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Posted: #7
 I act early on the games I like. most of the time it benefits me. considering today's games I got the best of it in most games. Overall I made out really good. Her is what happened today. I am comparing last nights lines with today's. There are major changes.
 Tenn -6 at -103. I thought this had a good chance of going up and it did. Matchbook had this ( at this  posting- things change quickly) -7 1/2 and -112. I  really benefited from this one. gained 1 1/2 points to the spread and +09 on the money line.
 Louisville - 24 + 103. As it turned out I could have gotten +108. I lost 5 points on this one.
E Kent +5.  My bet one against the line. I got it at + 105 . It went to -128      +133 on this one !!!! 
Seton Hall -12 Got it at +105 . It was +101.  +4 on this one
Ga St  +6 1/2  -102 at +6 1/2  It is now -102 at 6 gained a 1/2 point. Smart Money on Ga St
Very serious money on Utah. I got a small amount of my play in at +106 at +17. It is now at +14 and -130. I will go elsewhere to get the rest in.
E Mich +18  Got it at+109. It has gone down to +16 1/2 at +105.
That means the public is playing Mich heavily even so the line changed you can still get +105.
UCLA -16   I got at +109 . It was at-120 That is +29 for me.
Wisc -11  I got at +114. It went to +119. I lost 5 points on this one.
N Color  +20 1/2. Stayed flat at +108
Evansville -1. This was a really good one. I got it at +112. It went to -116. Lots of smart money on Evansville and public money on W Ky. Spread went from pick em to -1 1/2 despite more money on W Ky. Pay attention to these moves . They are potent in the long run.
Port +18. Great value +110 . Went to -117. Public went for BYU early on. Smart money changed this rapidly.
 Hope you enjoy this added information. After a while I get a good feel when to pounce on a team early and when to wait. In general wait to play dogs. Play both favorites in the top 25  and home favorites when the spread is-6 or more early on. Some line move due to smart money. When the lesser team is getting no special attention the line will move  or stay flat with the favorite almost every time.
 
 
 
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Posted: #8
                          Updated results
 Friday 1-1 NBA  won 5 unit play lost 10 unit play
Saturdat 12 NCAA BKBALL Games 8-4
  total 1-1    5 unit  NBA     0 units
         0-2   10 unit NBA     -20 units
         12-6 10 unit NCAA   +60 units
                         +40 units so far
  We had 3 other games that we thought were our weaker games Butler,Ky and Syra. I did not release them because I thought 12 was enough. All 3 won.
              My winning payoffs yesterday were
  E KY        +5     +105
 Seton Hall  -12    +105
 Ga State  +6 1/2  -103   Spread went to +4 1/2 late and +5 1/2   with 2 hours to spare
UCLA      -16 1/2   +109
Wisc       -11        +115
N Col      +20 1/2  +114
Evans     -1           +112
Port        +18        +110
 Average win was +108.4   - 2% take from Matchbook or +106.4. This was like winning a half game more .
 I hope nobody bet on Harvard after I said there was a $50,000 play. Early smart money hits about 55% of the time or 5 of 9 wins.The same Harvard team got late reverse action and settled in at +10 starting at +8 going to +12 and then +10. I used that as an example. I do not care what other so called smart handicappers play. I use my own plays and their plays do not help me.
 Of my 4 loses there was heavy action on 2 games ( Tenn and Utah) that lost. 5 more that won . 2 won when the "smart money ' was against me.  Wisc ,N Color
 I could not land my Utah play. Both the line and odds were going against me. I use a -105 place also.They had Utah at -110 so i did not bother. I got lucky for once.
  My games I play can lose by many. That is because we are measuring the energy of teams. When we think a team that did poorly recently is going to reverse itself we play it. When these teams lose they often lose by many . They are on a "bear run".On the other hand when we think that a team who is playing good is overvalued and is ready to come down to its normal ability then when they win they often cover by many. Such teams are on a "bull run" when that happens. Such teams as the 2 above examples usually continue their same momentum.
 Here are the basketball plays for today.
 No NBA
 NCAA (10) units  Niagara  Montana  Villanova    (5) units Stanford
                       Football picks later today
   Our basketball plays should kick butt for the rest of the year. Stay tuned.
 
 
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Posted: #9

        5 NFL games 

   N E , Cleve , NY G  very good plays

   ST L , Indy ,   good plays

 Football  at this time of the year is effected by weather. Warm weather teams playing in cold weather have a not good record against the spread. Long travel teams  are at a disadvantage. This year west coast teams play the east coast teams. That is tough on teams traveling that distance. When a warm weather team like San Dg. has to travel 3000 miles in cold weather they are at 10 point disadvantage right from the gun. Last week several contenders had problems traveling  a long distance. I gave out a system this year that  focuses on bad teams in college football that travel long distances.  It has hit70%+ of the time in the last 5 years. It is best to pass, in most cases, teams that are traveling long distances into different climate. San Diego though not traveling that long of a distance must play KC. The weather will not be to their liking. KC has, at least at one time , The best Dec home record of any team. Do you think some of that is because SD and Oak are in their league and one or both  play them in Nov and Dec weather? Minn plays Ariz at Ariz. This is a must game for Minn. Ariz has already clinced but still will be playing for home advantage. I want to like Minn but the travel part is not to my liking.

  Next week I will tell you the true story about Henry. His $50 bets changed the lines that Las Vegas offered in the 60's and early 70's. Henry was not a big bettor but a smart bettor. That is just what Vegas hopes for, if they have knowledge of their picks. 

 

 
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Posted: #10
Here are  the odds and lines being offered as I post this from Matchbook.
 Niagara +5          +105
 Mont     +4 1/2    +112
 Stan     -6 1/2     +103
 Vill        -9          +102
 If I split I still make a profit!!
 All 5 games I like in football are on the + side also ,ranging from +102 to +110
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by professorkopak:

  I incorporated a new part to my method this week and said I will update the results starting yesterday (Weds). I use 3 different handicapping formats and will separete my plays accordingly. One type of play I call my consistency point spread rating. It hits about 57 to 58 % of the time over a typical season. It is always a 5 unit play. It is a simple system (for me) and it is based on a team winning at a 40% better spread mark then its opponent.  We gives points for each of the last 10 games a team covered starting with 10 for the last game played  9 for the second one back and so forth to only one for the 10th game back. I do a few other things to the 2 teams to make sure the good team's ( against the spread) energy has not been compromised.

 As for the other two methods I think we will hit over 60% and we will have more games than I thought possible when I first started doing this. Most good handicappers do  not think that is likely. We will see.

Yesterday the pointspread consistency method was 0-1. Those are always 5 unit plays

 We were 3-1 in college regular plays and 0-1 in the NBA

  10 units are the play in regular plays unless I state differently and 5 in the pointspread consistency play.

  We are + 20 in college  (3-1) and -10 in the NBA and -5 in the PS% ( pointspread consistency ) play.

 +5 for the day. I use Matchbook and get  average odds of +103 so I do not use the -110 when  I lose because that is not what I lose.

  I will update this every day.

  Today's games     Wis GB-10 1/2 ,W Milw +14 1/2

 No NBA games

   Yesterday I gave out a game (Colorado) that I posted that i said was heavily played by "smart money". I posted this soon after I gave out the game and in plenty of time to act on it. It won easily. Such games have gone 7-1 or 8-0 so far? I will have to look at my old posts to see which it is because I forgot. I do not get excited about those games but it is nice that other good handicappers like the games I like. I will give you that info when I get it. Today Wis GB was hit by some smart money. How much I am not sure, so do not count this as in the above group unless I post an update.

PROFESSORKOPAK I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW AT ABOUT WHAT TIME WILL YOU BE POSTING YOUR PLAYS EVERYDAY? 
 
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Posted: #12

[Quote: Originally Posted by fruity92] PROFESSORKOPAK I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW AT ABOUT WHAT TIME WILL YOU BE POSTING YOUR PLAYS EVERYDAY?  [/Quote

I post them when I get my plays in. Tomorrow I have Only 1 NCAA play UC DAVIS. 

 5 unit play in NBA on Milw. Cold against spread team ( Miami) vs hot against spread team . It hits about 57-58%

 My last 9 college games have won. I will likely win every week for the rest of the season. 

 
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Posted: #13
 I think I am 16 -6 in college basketball picks. One of those plays was a 5 unit play so I  am 95 units ahead using Matchbook. Actually it is better than that since I am averaging +106 on my plays. I have hit 9 in a row since Saturday evening. Had I gave out the other 3 plays I thought were the weakest Sat. I would have been 19-6.
 Tomorrow I have UC Davis against the mighty Citadel. The spread has already gone the wrong way by 1 1/2. Miami is a play in the NBA . It is a 5 unit play. It is my hot team vs cold team play. It hits about 57-58% of the time. It is worth a play but not as good as my others in the long run.
                              Interesting  -  Read It
 Back in the 60's and early 70's I somehow landed in Las Vegas . I was a manager of a band. In reality I was their gambling manager. I taught them how to play poker and not be a sap. I also started working on 2 forms of gambling theories while there , involving horse racing and black jack. In horse racing we developed a form of the so called Byers figures before he did. (He did not create them as he readily admits. A nerd did it for him). That gave us a huge edge. Money was easy to make back then in horse racing but within a year of the Byers figures being offered in the racing form our edge was permantly lost. I never bothered with horse racing after that, except for an occasional visit. We also worked on black jack theories. We concluded that it was beatable when the deck was rich with low or high cards. Soon after we discovered that it could be beat ,Thorpe came out with his book and ruined our secret. I never had the patience to play backjack regularly but the leader of the band played often. He dealt himself over 30,000 random hands and recorded the results. They were very good. I know of no other games that were beatable , but a programmer for a slot machine told me when a  certain low stakes slot machine he worked on was ready to be hit by the pattern on the screen.
  The band that I was manager for was going to leave after a long stay because they got a big recording contract. They opened for people like Jack Benny and never got a bad review. .They broke up just after getting that contract however . One of the members decided to marry a girl from the group called "The Angels " Their big hit was 'My Boyfriends Back" still played often today. The leader of our band wound up in a psch ward for a while. We broke up and the record company that signed us got Herb Alfred and the Tijuana Brass instead. They are in the  Hall of Fame in 2 different catorgories. We were better.
  I stayed in Vegas and made a living playing poker and playing basketball and football games. I also taught what is believed to be the first handicapping class ever offered at a college. I also appeared on the radio doing some handicapping but soon abandoned that because the other handicappers on the program were snake oil salesmen. One of them is still around and is still a snake oil salesman. I also wrote some articles in a gambling magazine and one of those articles talked about the advantage of playing home dogs in the NFL. That was a bad move because the lines that were once shaded toward favorites moved 2 points to the home dogs. Las Vegas always adjusts. The 2 points they moved back too change the whole advantage.
 When in Vegas I met a guy named Henry. He was the ultimate nerd but likable and also was frugal. He and I had the common denominator of working on handicapping concepts and putting them in mechanical form. After a lot of work we came up with some really good stuff. Henry , being a cheap skate would only bet (invest) $50 on any given game. We placed our bets Sunday night's. That was called the outlaw line. You were outlawed from making big plays. I believe a $1000 was the limit then? Henry was the perfect bettor for the casino we patronized. When he went on a 27-4 run the casino noticed and  made sure he would always be around !They gave him a free room and gave him a token job. Why do you think they did this? Because they could change the line immediately toward what Henry liked on Sunday evening. It was a gift to do this for a $50 bet. HENRY CHANGED THE LINES FOR $50. It was not big money that did this but smart money!!!!  Book makers do not try to balance their books but shade lines away from public money. The guy who runs Sports Insights said that 90% of all public money was going on Arizona Sunday. Smart money was going on Minnesota. He also said that the public was only hitting 38% of all plays half way through the season this year. That is a place worth visiting.
  I thought some of you would enjoy reading this including my story to near fame. I Hope some of you become investment minded , unless you are already,  and not idiot gamblers. 98% of all people who visit this web site unfortunately are the latter. Do not be a sap.There are many competing for that job but they keep on hiring.
 
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Posted: #14
   We hit both games Monday . Cal Davis went off at +135 at Matchbook. Double wow !!  I have hit 11 winners in  a row . At this point I am suppose to tell you that I am the world's best handicapper. I  have viewed  many betting sites who have already make that claim so I am competing for  second best.
                         Tomorrow's plays. 
 Tenn. Tech  +18 1/2    10 units
 Fla. Atl.  5 units   -  Tenn -6 1/2  5 units. Unit strength may   change for Tenn.
 No plays in the NBA. It has been a dry spell finding plays in the  NBA for the past week.
 
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Posted: #15
Thanks for the pick Professor, I tailed you on that one and was never in doubt. Thanks for posting .
 
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Posted: #16
 I have retracted my Tennessee play. It is no longer a recommended play.
    My plays are once  again moving in the wrong direcrtion. Fla Atl went from +2 1/2 to +1 and Fla St from  -18 1/2 to -17. Tenn. moved a 1/2 point also.
    Yesterday Cal Davis moved from pickem to +2 to -2 then back again to + 2 1/2. Matchbook had 5 different spreads on the game. You could have gotten them at +135 at pick em!! That is  amazing. It was an easy win. I do not know whether my plays going the wrong way almost everytime are a coincidence but it is peculiar that it has happened in almost every game. I did not release  the Cleve St/ Syra. game though I could have. My helper discovered it. I missed it at the start but it qualified.
                            update of released games
 college games 16 -6   ten units  1-0  five units
 NBA 3-2  five units         0-2  ten units
 
 
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Posted: #17
  I am aware of the system and it is a fraud. It is a progressive system and when it loses it loses big! Stay away from all progressive systems . They are doomed for failure. We did a long term random study of the system and it lost more money than flat betting did in the same period. STAY AWAY FROM ALL PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS. They have been around for ever and bookies can not wait to get the user into his corner.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

Thanks for the pick Professor, I tailed you on that one and was never in doubt. Thanks for posting .
My plays will win over all. Hopefully we will have all winning weeks over the basketball season. Our plays hit 60%+ of the time. I give out a lot of plays but can not help it because they are all playable.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by stringpicker:

Interesting...thanks for the insight
You are welcome. I know a lot about sports handicapping and will be posting information for a while. I just ran across a system that claims to hit 70% with about 100 plays a year. I  will have little time to track it but hopefully somebody will pick it up and track it for me. It seems to have potential. I will post it this week.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by professorkopak:

You are welcome. I know a lot about sports handicapping and will be posting information for a while. I just ran across a system that claims to hit 70% with about 100 plays a year. I  will have little time to track it but hopefully somebody will pick it up and track it for me. It seems to have potential. I will post it this week.

I am very intereted in finding a system you can hit at 70% I will track this 4 u just got to tell me how to do this?
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:


I am very intereted in finding a system you can hit at 70% I will track this 4 u just got to tell me how to do this?
I will give it to you tomorrow. I do not have time to track it but I think it might have potential. You can contact me with the results. For the record, one thing I am doing is hitting 70% regularly. You might be interested.
 
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Posted: #22
my e-mail is in my space profile thanks
 
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Posted: #23
I am interested...my e mail is in my space profile as well...thanks
 
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Posted: #24
so you are not on tenn tech at +17.5?
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Streamline:

so you are not on tenn tech at +17.5?

I got tech at +17 1/2 at -103. I would take them all the way to +15 1/2

  I have another play though not an official one  NBA  NY hot vs cold

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