Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Hi , I belong to multiple sports books and found the Kentucky line at 152 at Draft Kings, 154 1/2 at 5 others. I may have missed if you ever said what book you use? 

Line dropped to 152.5 at Pinny...

Other thing I notice, the line is moving away from his side in the last 5 picks or so...... so maybe his high % win rate is now being played contrarian?

Oh the ebb and flow of how things go in the betting world.

One thing I'd look for, if u ever see someone or something thats hitting a very high rate once u pass 30 plays max, u better fade.

There is no one or no thing that can hit 60% over 1000 plays. Let me repeat this, there is no one or no thing that can hit 60% Winners against a (-110) line over 1000 plays. This is a hill that i will die on.

I challenge anyone in the betting world to disprove this statement.

It is a Mathematical impossibility, so remember that as u watch your favorite sports predictor on YouTube or Twitter.

If u think it can be done, step right up to (The Grand Challenge).

This thread is still winning at right at 70%, that is not going to last, no way, no how.

At best u could hope we go (4-3) over every 7 plays, so u can make money while you drop.

This thread may end at (30-20) 60% Winners and that would be great but it also means that we are going (5-9) the rest of the way. Now that's food for thought.

Wife is driving and I'm headed to Tunica for this 2 day battle.

Catch u guys later today with Play #38.

Falcon Sports 

Massive line movement on this one, all the way down to 149.5 now

Hopefully we buck the trend with this one.

In Tunica boys. If u think The Gold Strike won't take anyone on.

Just bet Kentucky Over 149.5 (-110) for 2K

Let's see what happens.

Falcon Sports 

Correct, you have to bring in a stock market mindset here.....don't get caught on FOMO (fear of missing out), wait for the range to bottom so hopefully, you are working with the reverse tide going out ....BUT AGREE, trust the math and analytics you do with it over the long haul 

@MITM

 Great to see your big bet.....I got in at 149

@MITM

 Gl. Start raining 3s please.

@LT90

 Good luck guys. Going to need it with this pace 

I'm going to have to play and post Play #38 now.

Army Over 27.5

I'm at The Gold Strike but I have to get my mother n law to Hollywood. She has $250 in free play burning a hole in her pocket.

I made a very large wager on this, more than the Kentucky game. 

I'll adjust the amount for The Grand Challenge 

This is Play #38 in The Grand Challenge 

I'll be back tonight with an update and ill have Play #39.

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Go to Australia, land down under.

@MITM

 Chin up. Stay positive. You can go 100%

@kimberton

 They started to run in 2H .....  Should get us over 150 FG

Didn't make it. Even with fouls toward the end.

Well Im riding with Army/Navy over 27.5. Surely Falcon can't possibly lose another one 

Double up time and if that doesn't come in ARMY, I think it will confirm your selection process is flawed when you have 5 plays or more to narrow down 

For the first time, I am looking at you sideways and wondering something, you did some today for the first time in one of your threads and if anyone can spot, you will recognize that there are signs, you system and how you bet and share your info might be cracking....

Let's see if anyone or you yourself, can spot what I noticed today in your posting info....cheers

Thanks for this thread....I love it, but Falcon is on a cold streak-regression period and it happens

The losing streak has reached 4

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($2489.06)

Record (25-12)

Play #38

Army Over 27.5 (-110) CFB 

$248.90 to win $226

Back later with Play #39

Falcon Sports 

Penn only scored 3 points in the last 9 minutes of the game 

@Trader_Mark

 That was wrong, my bad it was like 9 points

Wow after the first 4 min of the 2nd I thought this was money. I played live early in first half 147.5. I'm going to go vomit than swallow. Talk to y'all later 

On to the next falcon! Bol 

@Last2thirst

 The obvious would be he chasing with a large bet?

Yes. He took the 154.5 Over when doing his analysis, but remember, he ends up with at least 5-10 potential plays/options on a Friday night...going into a Saturday

So why take the 154.5 OVER and jump at it? 

The line drops......he gets 5 more points on the drop when he arrives in Tunica. Now he increases his bet by more than 8 x??? WTF?

He is a pro, but I am pretty much a pro when it comes to horse racing (35 yrs of doing it and successful most years and play with a $200+ stack always)......if I see a horse of mine going UP in odds, I don't press 8x my original bet on it,  IF I visually see the horses on the track and some look ready to go and fired up without being sweaty and bothered.....if I  smell something on the tote board is off, I do not up my $100 - $200 bet at 2-1 to now bet $800 - $1200 at 5-1....not good money management

Its not my money, but, I trust his system of math, not his selection process right now when he is on a 3 loss streak......

@Last2thirst

 You have more words in this tread than the OP, and more than everyone else combined.

@DMD252

 perhaps

but discussion and valuable insights are a beautiful thing

discourse is good

same team common cause

unless falcon is bothered - why complain!