Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($2882.10)

Record (40-23)

(63.49%) Winners 

Play #64

Duke Over 44.5 (-110) CFB 

$288.21 to win $262

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 
Great run you’ve been on and appreciate the hard work and posting plays here

you probably won’t answer this but for those of us that “cap” these bowl games it’s a damn crapshoot with all the opt outs/transfers/coaching departures. I know you just follow the MATH, but unlike college basketball right now which is pretty consistent how do you come to a pick in these bowl games just following the math with all the variables bc as you’ve said you don’t know any of the players etc

just wanted your take on the math and these “bowl games”

much love

Gonna get fucked? What? (thou shalt drink the kool aid every time damnit or perish???)

Lighten up people

Hey Falcon, what's the split now on UNDER success vs OVER success in your totals?

Thanks

@Last2thirst

 Report back to us when you've done that homework

@Last2thirst

 Overs (33-21) (61.11%) Winners 

Unders (7-2) (77.78%) Winners 

My formula picks about 50% Overs/50% Unders overall. Its when u get down to just one play that the discrepancy occurs.

If I were to play the best (3-5), u would get just about an equal split between the two.

But this thread is about The Grand Challenge and that is played one at a time.

Falcon Sports 

@kimberton

 Your exactly right, they are a crap shoot. 

But, ill speak just about the last two I've dealt with.

UTSA Over 46.5 (Winner)

My formula had this one at 52pts and it hit right on the nose.

UCF Under 67. My formula had this one at 63, which was very very close to a play. It would have been a Winner. 

Let's look at the pending play and I do not handicap but u would have to be a fool not to see who was going to play. I know Riley Leonard isn't there but he missed significant action during the season. I also know the backup was responsible for much of the data that I'm using. I believe Troy's offense is pretty much intact for this game. I believe Duke has a few defensive starters out. I also think (44.5) is relatively low. 

But I don't want to bring handicapping into this. 

I have the Power Total in this one at (51) and I believe enough of the data that I use is relevant to use in this one. 

Perhaps to better answer your question, I guess u should take these bowls on a game by game basis. Perhaps a little homework is required to go along with the statistics that I use.

But let me answer this question also like this. If the Chiefs were sitting Mahomes this week, I'd just throw that game out and not even run it. 

Best I can do for an answer. 

Falcon Sports 

great answer friend, and what you stated was as I had assumed. You’re right on the opt outs and both teams with the exception of Leonard are pretty much in tact….defensive players only ones that will be missing otherwise (which is good for us)

thanks and good luck!!

Anyone following this for a few more days.

The win percentage is currently (63.49%) Winners, that is not going to last. 

The area from 56% to 60% is pulling on it. Its going to win and drag that (63.49%) down to what I think ultimately will be (57.14%). 

How many times must I say that there is no one or no thing and I mean no handicapper, no system, no model, no formula and not even the old computer guys with a super computer that can hit 60% Winners over 1000 plays against a (-110) line. It does not exist.

Can u have short runs at 60%, of course and u might possibly be great and do it over 200-300 plays but u will never see 60% Winners over 1000 plays. 

Its all just regression to the "mean" and its just a matter of time before I reach the 57.14% area. Its inevitable but I can fight it and prolong it but like death its coming. 

In saying all that, I do project to be (400-300) after 700 plays. I have that written on my board in my home office.

(400-300) by Thanksgiving 2024

Have a good day guys

Falcon Sports 

Guys ill be leaving Tunica for home in an hour or so.

Ill be driving but when I get home I've got something that immediately needs my attention, I've been gone a week.

I have Play #64 pending

Duke Over 44.5

Here is Play #65

Air Force Over 40.5

Get your bet amounts correct, if your recalculating after each play.

Ill return after the Air Force game ends to update everything and release Play #66

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Thanks man.... I definitely see an OVER trend as hot this year in NCAAB and NBA, defense is lacking but later in the year, these high totals will switch I bet.

Just a comment....

 I went back and analyzed your success..... you went 7 - 0 building confidence using the UNDER (first 7 plays in GRAND CHALLENGE) .......and specifically, using 5 CBB games and 1 NBA UNDER....the only OVER was a CFB game that covered

since this time......you have only done 3-4 UNDER plays in your next 53 plays????? (basing this on the total analysis you provided a few posts above)

I will now do an analysis of the OVER PLAYS and trend you get on with CBB and NBA ....but mostly report on the CBB result. I believe I am seeing a pattern here and would suggest you might have a higher success rate, IF you focused on using your UNDER plays more........

So in other words, if given a handle of options in a day, you are STILL MOSTLY CHOOSING OVER PLAYS to put into your thread.

It is my theory therefore, you are TESTING Over plays with your math to use later on, and are having success....BUT THE REAL SUCCESS for laying down your larger bets, will come with using the UNDER and your math.

Am I onto something here?? YES!

Keep this thing going Falcon 

..... will update the OVER analysis soon and how its fairing against biases...(I have complete OVER/UNDER stats that I compile for all CBB teams for instance and pace of play....just curious to see if my suspicion you are testing biases on CBB plays since you have said its your bread + butter earlier in the fall)

I keep reading all these comments but sometimes you can see games unfolding in the opposite direction of the pick and highly doubtful now that Troy gave it up again that this game gets to 30. Thanks for all the winners but I'm wondering what went into this over play? Troy looks lost. 

@frankbullitt

 JUST SAW AS THE TEAMS TOOK THE FIELD THAT OVER 20 GUYS HAD SOME VIRUS FOR TROY, INCLUDING STARTING QB. HOW THIS INFO IS KEPT QUIET FOR DAYS IS BEYOND ME, NOT A GOOD LOOK FOR LEGALIZED SPORTS BETTING.

@ZEON13

 Thanks for the update.

@frankbullitt

 MITM/Falcon has said over and over. He doesn't cap games. He doesn't look at stats, injuries, weather etc. etc. He uses a system (math) that he has created that spits out a number. That number is compared to the line. If it hits his requirements he makes the play. He is hitting a very nice percentage of his plays. He expects to lose here and there as he is actually hitting better than his expectation. If you read back through the posts you can see his explanation for everything. It's all right in these pages. 

air force total went up to 43.5

Lets hope for a lot of pts next game.

@ZEON13

 Thanks for that! I was curious too!

@MITM

 Was your total nearer to 50 .....

[Quote: Originall

@Last2thirst

 y Posted by Last2thirst]Just a comment....    I went back and analyzed your success..... you went 7 - 0 building confidence using the UNDER (first 7 plays in GRAND CHALLENGE) .......and specifically, using 5 CBB games and 1 NBA UNDER....the only OVER was a CFB game that covered   since this time......you have only done 3-4 UNDER plays in your next 53 plays????? (basing this on the total analysis you provided a few posts above)   I will now do an analysis of the OVER PLAYS and trend you get on with CBB and NBA ....but mostly report on the CBB result. I believe I am seeing a pattern here and would suggest you might have a higher success rate, IF you focused on using your UNDER plays more........   So in other words, if given a handle of options in a day, you are STILL MOSTLY CHOOSING OVER PLAYS to put into your thread.   It is my theory therefore, you are TESTING Over plays with your math to use later on, and are having success....BUT THE REAL SUCCESS for laying down your larger bets, will come with using the UNDER and your math.   Am I onto something here?? YES!   Keep this thing going Falcon  ..... will update the OVER analysis soon and how its fairing against biases...(I have complete OVER/UNDER stats that I compile for all CBB teams for instance and pace of play....just curious to see if my suspicion you are testing biases on CBB plays since you have said its your bread + butter earlier in the fall)[/Quote]

I'll be curious what you come up with on this.  I appreciate you doing it!

Over in the 3rd quarter 

Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)

Starting Bankroll ($1000)

Current Bankroll ($2830.09)

Record (41-24)

(63.08%) Winners 

Play #66

San Jose St Over 48 (-110) CFB 

$283.00 to win $257.70

Falcon Sports 

Well Train has this over as well so I'm aboard. 

@icemantbi

 Who is Train?

Falcon