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Phixers NBA Playoffs

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Posted: #1151
 GL gm 5 Phixer. 
 
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Posted: #1152
line moved to 9.5 ... any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #1153
Got time for a quick take on this Phixer?

Having zero privileges and zero subscrprions to pay sites, all I have access to is publicly available data which I hear isn't that reliable. What I see on all 4 sites I'm checking is that about 63-64% of ATS and spread money is on Cleveland so far. What baffles me is that the spread and moneyline today have been steadily moving in a way that would encourage more money to be laid on the cavs (which should mean people are pounding the Warriors and books want to balance).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me like one of two things is happening:

1) GS is the prescribed winner and books are trying to bait more people into taking cavs by sweetening up the prices,

Or

2) Cle is the prescribed winner and public data is purposely misleading ppl to believe that the majority is on cavs to entice ppl to play the dubs

I love your original take that Cle wins game 5. Should be nobody expecting that really, but all the data I see says everyone is on cavs

What am I missing Phix?
 
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Posted: #1154
It could be one of those two. You just never know until the game plays out.

But with 9.5 spreads, either the underdog wins outright or the favorite win and covers. As long as GS gets the green light to play tonight they will win this game by double digits easily.

So, I think the spread indicates that GS has the green light to play. Also I think it would be messed up if they went back to forcing curry to miss his shots.

I think they just wanted to get as much money on cavs for the series as they could so that's why they had cavs take a 2-1 lead so people would take cavs on the series. Now that they have the series balanced, they don't care if GS wins.

So, I actually do think GS wins the series now that I think about it. But I have no official play for this I didn't bet the series.

Just saying the obvious pick is Golden State tonight, you can see a lot of people on here are taking Cavs.
 
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Posted: #1155
You make some good points liana but I find it hard to believe they would so tightly manipulate games 1-3 only to let the teams completely do their own thing for the rest of the series. I agree with you that left to their own devices the Warriors should beat the cavs by 20 most nights. But I even saw some stuff at the end of game 4 that led me to believe Cleveland was ensuring a warriors cover. Just some pretty obviously poor turnovers from lebronica and some other stuff. It didn't look right. I can't believe that them back and Vegas are now just "letting them play" after controlling everything else up to this point. If there was a game to assign to the cavs it would have to be this one... On the road after the dubs blew them out in Cleveland. I can't picture back-to-back blowouts can you?
 
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Posted: #1156
I also saw that, but then again cavs were playing at home during that game and I guess that one was rigged for a warriors cover as well as to make sure the game went Under. Public was all over the over, so that explains why cavs continued the turn the ball over. Warriors also could of scored more if they wanted to. 

I think the reason the spread moved to 9.5 here is because vegas wants to scare away as many people from taking GS as possible. Because they know GS is going to win by double digits. I can't see them going back to what they did in games 1, 2 and 3, GS finally found their pace of the game and their rythym I think GS continues that today and yes we will see another blowout.

So, don't be afraid to take GS if you like them. 9.5 pts is nothing. That's 3 baskets for GS ...considering Curry and Thompson are capable of 4 point plays. lol

I also read Phixer's write up and couldn't find any reason why he liked the cavs. He picked them but didn't really give any reasoning as to why. 
 
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Posted: #1157
Phix - You played this line earlier than normal.  Does the line movement a full point away concern you?  Cleveland looks banged up and tired with the 7 man rotation.  GSW looks business as usual. Good luck tonight either way.



  
Believe
 
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Posted: #1158
once i make a play - i stop worrying about it.
like lianafranks said - with such line it is either none covers and wins outright or the other does the same.
it is only a one game and is not worth sweating too much. you may not want to tail me as i do not feel lately as sharp as earlier in the series. 

 
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Posted: #1159
Thanks Bud....will ride the pony that carried me to the race.


Believe
 
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Posted: #1160
NBA Finals: GS Warriors vs CLE Cavaliers Game 5  Second Half Totals

This is a 10 Units Play

Under 98  -110

 
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Posted: #1161
thanks
 
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Posted: #1162
 Thanks Phix!!
 
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Posted: #1163
good luck man
 
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Posted: #1164
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NBA Finals: GS Warriors vs CLE Cavaliers Game 5

After deviating from my own way and contradicting my original flow of ATS winners but following thjrough perfectly with game winners (see Game 1) - I will be back to myself and ever learning to trust myself the way I should.

The Cavaliers are actually a done team. They are simply not good enough to take the title and they won't. But that has nothing to do with the fact that the refs in game 5 will be on ATS of the Cavs. They mistreated LBJ bad enough in game 4 (although all knew they will, even he himself). Kerr is gonna be the first year coach to win the title and Blatt who originally was supposed to be his assistant (the same agent BTW) - will have to wait for the next year to get the title.

So. In game 5 I will take the Cavs to cover and I will also take in a different pick the GS to win it all.

This is a 10 Units Play

CLE Cavaliers +8.5  -110

loss -1100$
 
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Posted: #1165
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NBA Finals: GS Warriors vs CLE Cavaliers Game 5  Second Half Totals

This is a 10 Units Play

Under 98  -110

win +1000$
 
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Posted: #1166
1-1 on the night  -100$
 
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Posted: #1167
32-17    +14,600$
 
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Posted: #1168
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NBA Finals: GS Warriors vs CLE Cavaliers Game 1

I love this time of the year. I am preparing for the trip to Germany for the Champions League finals, tomorrow is the Game 7 in Rangers TB series in NHL and NBA finals are around the corner. If the Rangers advance to the finals - I'll be hurrying back statewide. IOf not - what the hell - I'll be staying in Europe watching the NBA finals from there. But first of all tomorrow I am the MSG suite and this time I hope I will see the Rangers playing at home the way they have been playing away.

In regard to the NBA finals - I love when the Cavs are such obvious underdogs for Game 1. It is a martyngale opportunity Par Excellance.  I don't believe the Warriors will win both at home. Besides I have 4K more won than planned for the whole playoffs . So. Why not gamble on Blatt to bring it to the Warriors right at their home from game 1? And if they lose game 1 - there is alays a game 2 with even better lines and the odds. Tese finals I will be backing away teams to tear apart the home factor. Rangers just have shown why.

I know - the eastern conference teams are weaker than the western ones. But LBJ is here and Curry is even softer than LBJ. Because LBJ is not really a soft or a choker but paid his dues to NBA. Now it is the time for getting back what he gave. NBA is dying to erase MJ as the games best player and although for those who saw MJ in action and see LBJ - we know the difference and improbability of MJ being ever dethroned - those who did not most probably will remember LBJ the KING as the best.

The Warriors got their breaks and all who raised their eyebrows seeing Harden handing the win and the cover to the Dubs - please remember that he was handed the same in game beforehand. Now the Dubs have to pay.

Now, I wanted to have two plays here - ML and ATS for the Cavs but came to a realization that because the Public will be all over the Cavs in game 1 - it may be thrown away money. But - if the Cavs will lose first one and will not even cover - oh Mamma Mia - I will go big on them game 2. ML and ATS. May be :)

No. Now I changed my mind. It does not make sense what I wrote as if so - I should be taking the Dubs game one because Vegas is Vegas and every Tom, person and Harry are on the Cavs.... Martyngale will begin after this game.

As I see it:

Game 1 Dubs

Game 2 Cavs

Game 3 Cavs

Game 4 Dubs

Game 5 Cavs OT

Game 6 Dubs OT

Game 7 -open for all. The real game

*** NOTE: I was writing this one for few hours and did not want to erase my thoughts and convictions as well as how much they were changing

This is a 10 Units Play

GS Warriors -5.5  -110

1100$

hhmmmmmmm..........
why the nfl can not start a week after the nba finals......
 
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Posted: #1169
Someone might want to check the math, seems to be pretty fuzzy, especially the $ totals
 
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Posted: #1170
Quote Originally Posted by StocktonShorts:

Someone might want to check the math, seems to be pretty fuzzy, especially the $ totals
sup bookie? lost again? have to work in public toilets again turning the tricks for 5$? does your boyfriend know about what you really do to get the money? or are you telling him youre a successful bookie?
 
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Posted: #1171
I think we all know that this might end up to game 7 series. Anyways, i hope you bounce back phixer. See you in game 6 
 
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Posted: #1172
Quote Originally Posted by ATSLurker:

I think we all know that this might end up to game 7 series. Anyways, i hope you bounce back phixer. See you in game 6 
i went 1-1 anyways
 
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Posted: #1173
always glad to be in a penalty box - probably the most intelligence infected place on covers. and i am not being cynical. 
sup guy? shrimp, kurshka, big unit... all is well? long time no see
 
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Posted: #1174
please give stocktonpanties a warm welcome on behalf of the commitee and the secretary of the penalty nation
 
 
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Posted: #1175

Phixer, you throw an illegal hip check somewhere?

Why the box?    

Come on football!!!

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