Looking at this play too, will investigate further. Not too often do I put stock in other opinions, I make my own decisions but you sound a bit like me, and I like that. Good Luck!
Best of luck pal
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Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
Looking at this play too, will investigate further. Not too often do I put stock in other opinions, I make my own decisions but you sound a bit like me, and I like that. Good Luck!
There are two numbers that stand out historically. For the last 10 years, both 37 and 41 have landed over 4% of the time in the NFL, making them the most likely. The key point here is that most bettors quickly recognize the value in laying 3.5-points instead of 4, but not many recognize how much better Under 41 is compared to 40.5. Spend some time working through combinations of TDs and FGs and you will quickly see where other key totals (38, 40, 43, etc.) lie. This will help you spot value when shopping for totals.
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Quote Originally Posted by PropKing82:
There are two numbers that stand out historically. For the last 10 years, both 37 and 41 have landed over 4% of the time in the NFL, making them the most likely. The key point here is that most bettors quickly recognize the value in laying 3.5-points instead of 4, but not many recognize how much better Under 41 is compared to 40.5. Spend some time working through combinations of TDs and FGs and you will quickly see where other key totals (38, 40, 43, etc.) lie. This will help you spot value when shopping for totals.
I'm not gonna sit here and brag, because a lot of people on here are going to say "another story" blah blah blah. The person that gave me this play is a very feared sports bettor in Las Vegas. He moved 25k this afternoon. The line has jumped from 39.5 to 41, and it's only Tuesday. He only has 6 games like this a year, and only in the NFL. Fade or follow, but I promise you following might be the better option.
$25k isn't a very big bet by Vegas standards, is it?
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Quote Originally Posted by PropKing82:
I'm not gonna sit here and brag, because a lot of people on here are going to say "another story" blah blah blah. The person that gave me this play is a very feared sports bettor in Las Vegas. He moved 25k this afternoon. The line has jumped from 39.5 to 41, and it's only Tuesday. He only has 6 games like this a year, and only in the NFL. Fade or follow, but I promise you following might be the better option.
$25k isn't a very big bet by Vegas standards, is it?
I watched the game twice. I did the math. Minus those three plays here are the Raiders rushing statistics. Oakland ran 32 rushing plays on offense. I am discounting 6 of those plays. Here are the six: 1) The 70 yard td run from McFadden, which I admit was a terrible defense effort and one of the worst defensive plays I've seen in a long time from them. 2) The broken halfback throw by McFadden which the Jets read perfectly. 3) The wide receiver reverse. 4) A Jason Campbell 10 yard scramble which the Jets had perfect coverage on. 5 and 6) The two Jason Campbell plays at the very end of the game after Sanchez went down at the 1. So, without those six plays, the Jets gave up 104 rushing yards on 26 carries, for an average of exactly 4 yards per carry. Not so bad huh?
Dude are you crazy? How can you take out 6 plays and not give them any credit for 6 plays. I would maybe let you go with 1 play if it was a 60 yard run or something or maybe even 2 plays. But 6!!?? They only ran the ball what 30 times? 6 is 20% of those. How can you just eliminate 20% of their plays and say these were gimmicks. Oh and by the way even if you did eliminate those 6 plays they still rushed for 104 yards. WITHOUT all their major gains. Your crazy. And don't say watch the game because I did watch that game.
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Quote Originally Posted by mba3170:
I watched the game twice. I did the math. Minus those three plays here are the Raiders rushing statistics. Oakland ran 32 rushing plays on offense. I am discounting 6 of those plays. Here are the six: 1) The 70 yard td run from McFadden, which I admit was a terrible defense effort and one of the worst defensive plays I've seen in a long time from them. 2) The broken halfback throw by McFadden which the Jets read perfectly. 3) The wide receiver reverse. 4) A Jason Campbell 10 yard scramble which the Jets had perfect coverage on. 5 and 6) The two Jason Campbell plays at the very end of the game after Sanchez went down at the 1. So, without those six plays, the Jets gave up 104 rushing yards on 26 carries, for an average of exactly 4 yards per carry. Not so bad huh?
Dude are you crazy? How can you take out 6 plays and not give them any credit for 6 plays. I would maybe let you go with 1 play if it was a 60 yard run or something or maybe even 2 plays. But 6!!?? They only ran the ball what 30 times? 6 is 20% of those. How can you just eliminate 20% of their plays and say these were gimmicks. Oh and by the way even if you did eliminate those 6 plays they still rushed for 104 yards. WITHOUT all their major gains. Your crazy. And don't say watch the game because I did watch that game.
Tell you what, next time I give this type of game out I will make sure to do it before he bets it. After I post it, I want you to check the line a couple of hrs later. I guarantee the line jumps atleast a point, after he bets it. Any takers?
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Quote Originally Posted by wchowdip:
Is your source Billy "The Whale" Walters?
Sarcasm, I love it .
Tell you what, next time I give this type of game out I will make sure to do it before he bets it. After I post it, I want you to check the line a couple of hrs later. I guarantee the line jumps atleast a point, after he bets it. Any takers?
I watched the game twice. I did the math. Minus those three plays here are the Raiders rushing statistics. Oakland ran 32 rushing plays on offense. I am discounting 6 of those plays. Here are the six: 1) The 70 yard td run from McFadden, which I admit was a terrible defense effort and one of the worst defensive plays I've seen in a long time from them. 2) The broken halfback throw by McFadden which the Jets read perfectly. 3) The wide receiver reverse. 4) A Jason Campbell 10 yard scramble which the Jets had perfect coverage on. 5 and 6) The two Jason Campbell plays at the very end of the game after Sanchez went down at the 1. So, without those six plays, the Jets gave up 104 rushing yards on 26 carries, for an average of exactly 4 yards per carry. Not so bad huh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WOW I DIDNT KNOW WE COULD DO THAT!!!!!! I TOOK USF LAST NIGHT AND THERE WERE ABOUT 6 PLAYS THERE I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE OFF THAT ALL LEAD TO TOUCHDOWNS WHICH MEANS I WON. HECK YEA I LIKE TAKE AWAYS! SURE MAKES BETTING A LOT EASIER!!!
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QUOTE Originally Posted by mba3170:
I watched the game twice. I did the math. Minus those three plays here are the Raiders rushing statistics. Oakland ran 32 rushing plays on offense. I am discounting 6 of those plays. Here are the six: 1) The 70 yard td run from McFadden, which I admit was a terrible defense effort and one of the worst defensive plays I've seen in a long time from them. 2) The broken halfback throw by McFadden which the Jets read perfectly. 3) The wide receiver reverse. 4) A Jason Campbell 10 yard scramble which the Jets had perfect coverage on. 5 and 6) The two Jason Campbell plays at the very end of the game after Sanchez went down at the 1. So, without those six plays, the Jets gave up 104 rushing yards on 26 carries, for an average of exactly 4 yards per carry. Not so bad huh?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WOW I DIDNT KNOW WE COULD DO THAT!!!!!! I TOOK USF LAST NIGHT AND THERE WERE ABOUT 6 PLAYS THERE I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE OFF THAT ALL LEAD TO TOUCHDOWNS WHICH MEANS I WON. HECK YEA I LIKE TAKE AWAYS! SURE MAKES BETTING A LOT EASIER!!!
HEY KING. DONT WORRY BOUT THE HATERS THEY WILL ALWAYS BE THERE. WHATS IMPORTANT IS YOU BELIEVE IN THE PLAY AND YOU WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO SHARE IT. FROM THERE ITS UP TO US WHAT WE DO WITH THE INFO. I AM LIKE YOU IN THAT I HAVE A CONNECTION AS WELL IN VEGAS AND THE PLAY HE GAVE ME WAS THE JETS SO IT SOUNDS LIKE A NICE PARLAY FOR ME. THANKS AND BOL.CHEERS
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HEY KING. DONT WORRY BOUT THE HATERS THEY WILL ALWAYS BE THERE. WHATS IMPORTANT IS YOU BELIEVE IN THE PLAY AND YOU WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO SHARE IT. FROM THERE ITS UP TO US WHAT WE DO WITH THE INFO. I AM LIKE YOU IN THAT I HAVE A CONNECTION AS WELL IN VEGAS AND THE PLAY HE GAVE ME WAS THE JETS SO IT SOUNDS LIKE A NICE PARLAY FOR ME. THANKS AND BOL.CHEERS
HEY KING. DONT WORRY BOUT THE HATERS THEY WILL ALWAYS BE THERE. WHATS IMPORTANT IS YOU BELIEVE IN THE PLAY AND YOU WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO SHARE IT. FROM THERE ITS UP TO US WHAT WE DO WITH THE INFO. I AM LIKE YOU IN THAT I HAVE A CONNECTION AS WELL IN VEGAS AND THE PLAY HE GAVE ME WAS THE JETS SO IT SOUNDS LIKE A NICE PARLAY FOR ME. THANKS AND BOL.CHEERS
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Quote Originally Posted by GADAWG101:
HEY KING. DONT WORRY BOUT THE HATERS THEY WILL ALWAYS BE THERE. WHATS IMPORTANT IS YOU BELIEVE IN THE PLAY AND YOU WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO SHARE IT. FROM THERE ITS UP TO US WHAT WE DO WITH THE INFO. I AM LIKE YOU IN THAT I HAVE A CONNECTION AS WELL IN VEGAS AND THE PLAY HE GAVE ME WAS THE JETS SO IT SOUNDS LIKE A NICE PARLAY FOR ME. THANKS AND BOL.CHEERS
Honestly, not really. You've lost 2 points of value from the opening line, and not only have you lost 2 points, but the total has passed the key # of 41. I'd probably stay away at this point. Gotta jump on these games early, because the line will jump FAST.
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Quote Originally Posted by kjbellini:
My book has it at 42. Still worth goin for it?
Honestly, not really. You've lost 2 points of value from the opening line, and not only have you lost 2 points, but the total has passed the key # of 41. I'd probably stay away at this point. Gotta jump on these games early, because the line will jump FAST.
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WOW I DIDNT KNOW WE COULD DO THAT!!!!!! I TOOK USF LAST NIGHT AND THERE WERE ABOUT 6 PLAYS THERE I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE OFF THAT ALL LEAD TO TOUCHDOWNS WHICH MEANS I WON. HECK YEA I LIKE TAKE AWAYS! SURE MAKES BETTING A LOT EASIER!!!
CHEERS
Weather might be a factor in this game. As of Friday night the forecast is calling for rain and wind around 10 mph.
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