22/06/22 WNBA

36-41 -1.8U

5-1 yesterday was a nice bounce back. Some crazy results down the line. I'm not really sure how to feel about today's game but I am going to look into it and try to right some stuff down. Not expecting to have a play at this point but maybe writing it up will change that. Good luck to all

LIBERTY@SUN

Let's get a few things out of the way. 

These teams have played twice already but I don't think those games have much bearing on this one. The first was on opening night and that alone creates a strange sample. With so much time off and roster shuffling and expectations and new coaches and waiting for players to join the team and and and and and... It's just a crazy time that often has some crazy results.

Even without that opening night stuff, these teams are not the teams they were. Not only have the faces changed on both sides, but play styles have emerged and confidence has grown etc... For the Sun, Jasmine Thomas played 28 minutes and Bonner didn't play at all. For the Liberty, Willoughby played 28 minutes, Cubaj played 17, and Asia Durr (who was great for ATL yesterday) played 5 minutes. Han Xu, Johannes, Didi, and Dangerfield were all absent for various reasons. Ten days later, they played again. This time Bonner played. JThom played 20 minutes and  it probably would have been more if not for the score. For the Liberty, Laney played 31 minutes, Allen played 22 (and I don't expect to see her tonight, and Asia chipped in 11 minutes. Even Cubaj still played 8. She has played a total of 6 over the last 4 games for NY which is a good thing because the team simply has better options now. Again, Xu, Didi, Crystal, and Johannes were not a part of this game. Those four players accounted for 77 of a possible 200 minutes in NY's last game which is 38.5% of the game. In the game before that where they beat Washington, Johannes, Crystal, and Xu played a total of 87 minutes which is 43.5% of the game.

Honestly, I think I am in love with Johannes. She does everything and I still find myself looking up that pass to Dolson for 3 against Chicago. So pretty. She has started the last two games for the Liberty and avgd 35 minutes in those games. Her skill set is so diverse that the boxcore will probably always surprise you but rest assured she is making winning plays all game long. I know Sandy agrees with me too. Johannes has lead the team in minutes those last two games and played 4 more than even Ionescu in that time. It also feels like we haven't scratched the ceiling with her. She looked great in her first game with an 11/2/6 line in just 23 minutes, going 4/7 from the field and 3/5 from 3. Granted, that was against Indiana (one of three teams with a defensive rating over 106). The next two games, against better defenses (Chicago 98.6 and Washington 94.9) she only managed 4 points on 3/10 shooting over all and 0/6 from 3 but still made major contributions esepcially against Washington with 4 boards, 7 assists, a steal, and a block. One big thing for me when analyzing players is whether or not they tend to hurt the team on their off games because everyone will have them and the best players find a way to minimize how this affects the team. The Chicago game was easily her weakest of the four but I have already mentioned an impact play from this game. Sure, she was 4/1/1 by the end of the game but she was 2/3 from the field and only had one turnover in those 28 minutes. The "hockey assists" won't show and neither will the defense in most cases. God, I can feel myself being talked into the Liberty just because of this woman's play. 

One thing I really like to do when capping games is look for recent outliers in play and then run it through SDQL to see what comes out. Yesterday it was the "home dogs after an 0-4 road trip" that are now 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS all-time (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS this season). It was also "favourites off back to back wins shooting above league average from the field and from 3" which are now 1-6 ATS on the season and went UNDER 5 times out of 7. The all-time numbers aren't as great on that one but also are not super relevant in my mind. I am not able to search against league average (or at least don't know how). Yesterday I calculated league average on my own and compared to those numbers explicitly. What this means is that the all-time query uses the exact same numbers instead of comparing to league averages for those years. This may seem trivial to some but don't forget how young this league is. Without even looking, I am confident that the league averages (especially for 3 point shooting) have varied quite a bit in the last quarter century. Anyway, those little stats were ultimately what made me side with ATL and the UNDER yesterday. It's very possible I just got lucky. It's a small sample size in both cases. The reality, however, is that I saw a lot of the things I expected to see. After shooting 45% or better from the field and 3 in back to back games, Dallas only managed 38% from the field and 24% from 3. After hitting 12 threes in back to back games, they could only muster 6 against Atlanta. For the record, that's more than 3 under their avg for the season. Dallas came into that game avging over 13 2nd chance points but were held to just 9. By my count, they only got one three in this scenario. There were a lot of bricks in the half court. Atlanta turned the ball over 22 times but the vast majority were dead ball turnovers. I have a little better idea of how their TO numbers are so bad but they still prevent points off those turnovers. 

So what's the stat for today? Well, the weirdest thing I can find in the recent game history for either team is New York's FT numbers against Seattle. There were 13 FTs TOTAL in this game. Crazy. New York was just 2/5 from the line. Those are stats for a player, not a whole team. As it turns out, a team has shot 5 or less FTs 56 times in this league. 31 of those went over the posted total. If we refine our search to a team coming off a loss where they had 5 or less attempts and add that their opponent is also coming off a loss (Both Sun and Liberty lost last game), we get 15-6-1 to the OVER. This makes sense to me as FTs are a great cheat code for OVERs. I honestly thought the UNDER was dead in the ATL game because there were so many FTs but these died in the second half.