It's official. I am in love with Marine Johannes. If only I could watch her play every day. Starts and leads the team in minutes for the third straight game. 11 points but timely buckets and omg the passing continues. Queen of the no-look. Too early? I don't care. Tread lightly any time I bet on the Liberty from now on.
FEVER@WINGS
This one breaks down pretty simply for me. The Fever have 5 wins on the season and are easily coming off of their biggest. This season they are 1-2 SU after a victory. The back to back wins were against Minnesota and then the Liberty when they couldn't beat anyone. On the 27th, in their first game with new coach Knox they beat the sparks. This wasn't just a win but an emotional win. 4 days later they hosted the Mystics without Hawkins or Clark and lost by 12. Their 4th win was in Minnesota. They followed that up with a 13 point loss at home to the Mercury sans Cunningham. 4 days ago they beat the defending champs in what I believe must also be a pretty emotional win. I'm thinking there will be a let down for this team but the stats don't necessarily support it. The four other teams to beat Chicago are the Sparks on opening night (asterisk?), the Storm, the Aces, and the Mystics. 3 of those 4 are undoubtedly better teams than Indiana. Still, teams are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after beating Chicago. All of those teams were also favourites in the game after Chicago. Indiana is a 9 point dog.
The Wings are coming off a disappointing loss to Atlanta. The Dream were missing 5 key players and on a 4 game losing streak but played really solid defense for 4 quarters and came away with the win. Now Dallas sits below .500 again and also just below that Atlanta team in the league wide standings. They've had a really rough schedule this month but these nest few games are a good opportunity for them to climb a bit in the standings, hosting the Fever and then the Mercury and then heading to Minnesota to end June. I believe in this team's ability. They have won 8 games. 5 of those were by double digits and two more of them by 8.
Another thing to note about this Fever victory is that they came back from being down 13 at half after a 9 point second quarter. This kind of comeback takes a lot out of you. We may see it impact this team down the stretch tonight as well as the very team they did it to since Chicago is also playing tonight after a large comeback. Teams that were down dd at half and came back to win are 3-5 SU and ATS in their next game. On the road they are 0-2 ATS. This scenario has occured three times so far this season. Teams are 0-3 SU and ATS. The OVER is 3-0. The OVER is also 7-0 all time. Teams in this scenario this season have failed to cover the spread by an average of over 18 points.
Nalysaa Smith just scored 20+ points for the second time this season and the second time in three games but that in between game she had 4 in 30 minutes. Mabrey struggled for Dallas last time out and honestly so did a lot of the Wings. Regression on both sides is expected.
IND Fever @ DAL Wings -9 (-110) 1U
IND Fever @ DAL WINGS OVER 170.5 (-110) 1U
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
36-41 -1.8U
It's official. I am in love with Marine Johannes. If only I could watch her play every day. Starts and leads the team in minutes for the third straight game. 11 points but timely buckets and omg the passing continues. Queen of the no-look. Too early? I don't care. Tread lightly any time I bet on the Liberty from now on.
FEVER@WINGS
This one breaks down pretty simply for me. The Fever have 5 wins on the season and are easily coming off of their biggest. This season they are 1-2 SU after a victory. The back to back wins were against Minnesota and then the Liberty when they couldn't beat anyone. On the 27th, in their first game with new coach Knox they beat the sparks. This wasn't just a win but an emotional win. 4 days later they hosted the Mystics without Hawkins or Clark and lost by 12. Their 4th win was in Minnesota. They followed that up with a 13 point loss at home to the Mercury sans Cunningham. 4 days ago they beat the defending champs in what I believe must also be a pretty emotional win. I'm thinking there will be a let down for this team but the stats don't necessarily support it. The four other teams to beat Chicago are the Sparks on opening night (asterisk?), the Storm, the Aces, and the Mystics. 3 of those 4 are undoubtedly better teams than Indiana. Still, teams are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after beating Chicago. All of those teams were also favourites in the game after Chicago. Indiana is a 9 point dog.
The Wings are coming off a disappointing loss to Atlanta. The Dream were missing 5 key players and on a 4 game losing streak but played really solid defense for 4 quarters and came away with the win. Now Dallas sits below .500 again and also just below that Atlanta team in the league wide standings. They've had a really rough schedule this month but these nest few games are a good opportunity for them to climb a bit in the standings, hosting the Fever and then the Mercury and then heading to Minnesota to end June. I believe in this team's ability. They have won 8 games. 5 of those were by double digits and two more of them by 8.
Another thing to note about this Fever victory is that they came back from being down 13 at half after a 9 point second quarter. This kind of comeback takes a lot out of you. We may see it impact this team down the stretch tonight as well as the very team they did it to since Chicago is also playing tonight after a large comeback. Teams that were down dd at half and came back to win are 3-5 SU and ATS in their next game. On the road they are 0-2 ATS. This scenario has occured three times so far this season. Teams are 0-3 SU and ATS. The OVER is 3-0. The OVER is also 7-0 all time. Teams in this scenario this season have failed to cover the spread by an average of over 18 points.
Nalysaa Smith just scored 20+ points for the second time this season and the second time in three games but that in between game she had 4 in 30 minutes. Mabrey struggled for Dallas last time out and honestly so did a lot of the Wings. Regression on both sides is expected.
Tempted to back the Mercury in this spot but I really didn't like what I saw from them in the last game. A lot of fatigue and frustration. I don't think 1 night off and travel will necessarily fix this. What I do expect is to see them score more. They managed 22 in the first and didn't break 20 for the next 3 quarters. Minnesota shooting could regress a little but I think this offense is really just being underestimated right now.
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LYNX@MERCURY
Tempted to back the Mercury in this spot but I really didn't like what I saw from them in the last game. A lot of fatigue and frustration. I don't think 1 night off and travel will necessarily fix this. What I do expect is to see them score more. They managed 22 in the first and didn't break 20 for the next 3 quarters. Minnesota shooting could regress a little but I think this offense is really just being underestimated right now.
Washington has 11 wins, but Doctor P says 12. Same discrepancy in the opposite direction for Seattle. Sitting at 10 wins but P says 9. In overall standings, the Storm sit just ahead of Washington but a win tonight for the Mystics would slide them into that #4 spot. From what I am seeing, EDD will play tonight but Elizabeth Williams is out. Mercedes Russell is out for the Storm which basically evens out in my mind. Shakira Austin has had 3 straight single digit scoring games avging less than 20 mins in those games. I would like to see a little more run for the rookie and there should be opportunity tonight.
The Mystics are coming off a super frustrating loss to the Sparks. The final score of 82-84 does not tell the full story. LA was up 77-61 and with 2.5 seconds left the mystics were only down 3 and Natasha Cloud went to the line to shoot 3 free throws. Unfortunately for Washington, she missed the second and then the third intentionally to try and give her team a chance. They fell short. Cloud was key to this comeback as she hit several 3 pointers in that 4th quarter to close the gap. 13 points and 13 assists. No wonder she was so unlucky? For a woman who shoots almost 80% from the line this season and 75% for her career, to go 2/7 (2/6 unintentionally) is rare. It's also a tough pill to swallow when even just 1 one of those points could have seriously altered the result in this one. Cloud was on a mission in the 4th and fell short. Her stats may regress a bit but I expect her to attack this game with the same aggression as the 4th quarter of the last game. Austin had 4 points on 2/8. Clark had 7 points on 3/7. Both should do more tonight plus we get EDD. I'm sure it wears on her as well to watch the team lose games like this when she is not even hurt but just resting.
I will note that the Mystics head to Las Vegas in two days but I don't think they are in any position to be looking ahead. Maybe that won't stop them but Seattle is arguably a bigger game for them. They are not likely to catch the Aces in the standings but they can get one step close to home court advantage in the first round by winning tonight. This is also the second game of a 3 game road trip. Losing tonight could mean they go 0-3 on this trip where as a win tonight gives them a chance to make this a winning trip.
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MYSTICS@STORM
Washington has 11 wins, but Doctor P says 12. Same discrepancy in the opposite direction for Seattle. Sitting at 10 wins but P says 9. In overall standings, the Storm sit just ahead of Washington but a win tonight for the Mystics would slide them into that #4 spot. From what I am seeing, EDD will play tonight but Elizabeth Williams is out. Mercedes Russell is out for the Storm which basically evens out in my mind. Shakira Austin has had 3 straight single digit scoring games avging less than 20 mins in those games. I would like to see a little more run for the rookie and there should be opportunity tonight.
The Mystics are coming off a super frustrating loss to the Sparks. The final score of 82-84 does not tell the full story. LA was up 77-61 and with 2.5 seconds left the mystics were only down 3 and Natasha Cloud went to the line to shoot 3 free throws. Unfortunately for Washington, she missed the second and then the third intentionally to try and give her team a chance. They fell short. Cloud was key to this comeback as she hit several 3 pointers in that 4th quarter to close the gap. 13 points and 13 assists. No wonder she was so unlucky? For a woman who shoots almost 80% from the line this season and 75% for her career, to go 2/7 (2/6 unintentionally) is rare. It's also a tough pill to swallow when even just 1 one of those points could have seriously altered the result in this one. Cloud was on a mission in the 4th and fell short. Her stats may regress a bit but I expect her to attack this game with the same aggression as the 4th quarter of the last game. Austin had 4 points on 2/8. Clark had 7 points on 3/7. Both should do more tonight plus we get EDD. I'm sure it wears on her as well to watch the team lose games like this when she is not even hurt but just resting.
I will note that the Mystics head to Las Vegas in two days but I don't think they are in any position to be looking ahead. Maybe that won't stop them but Seattle is arguably a bigger game for them. They are not likely to catch the Aces in the standings but they can get one step close to home court advantage in the first round by winning tonight. This is also the second game of a 3 game road trip. Losing tonight could mean they go 0-3 on this trip where as a win tonight gives them a chance to make this a winning trip.
Ever since Sue Bird announced her retirement, the urgency and emotion for Seattle has increased greatly. They really disappointed me in Connecticut but this recent victory in New York was big. Maybe it didn't seem that big at the time but it probably seems bigger now after NY just beat the Sun last night. They mentioned a couple times throughout the game that this could be Bird's last trip to NY and if that is true then what a great final game for her. That 3 in the 4th was huge and you could feel the emotion in the crowd and the team when it happened. On paper I know this doesn't look like a let down spot but it still feels like one to me. Seattle is coming off a 5 game road trip where they went 4-1 but just 1-3-1 ATS. Home favs off a 5 game road trip are just 6-13 ATS all time. Jewell Loyd struggled for the second straight game and you have to believe she cracks dd but at the same time Gaby Williams is not going to give you 23 when she avgs under 6 a game.
Seattle gets 15% (most) of their points on the fastbreak. Washington is #1 in limiting fastbreak points. Seattle gets 24% (most) of their points off turnovers. Washington is third best at limiting those points and commits the third least turnovers. Washington's scoring is very balanced in this regard and I expect that balance to be the difference tonight as Washington's D is strong in the same areas as Seattle's O. The one exception being Washington's inability to score on the fastbreak so far this season but I dont think it should sink them tonight.
WAS Mystics +4.5 @ Seattle Storm (-110) 4U
WAS Mystics ML @ Seattle Storm (+155)1U
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Ever since Sue Bird announced her retirement, the urgency and emotion for Seattle has increased greatly. They really disappointed me in Connecticut but this recent victory in New York was big. Maybe it didn't seem that big at the time but it probably seems bigger now after NY just beat the Sun last night. They mentioned a couple times throughout the game that this could be Bird's last trip to NY and if that is true then what a great final game for her. That 3 in the 4th was huge and you could feel the emotion in the crowd and the team when it happened. On paper I know this doesn't look like a let down spot but it still feels like one to me. Seattle is coming off a 5 game road trip where they went 4-1 but just 1-3-1 ATS. Home favs off a 5 game road trip are just 6-13 ATS all time. Jewell Loyd struggled for the second straight game and you have to believe she cracks dd but at the same time Gaby Williams is not going to give you 23 when she avgs under 6 a game.
Seattle gets 15% (most) of their points on the fastbreak. Washington is #1 in limiting fastbreak points. Seattle gets 24% (most) of their points off turnovers. Washington is third best at limiting those points and commits the third least turnovers. Washington's scoring is very balanced in this regard and I expect that balance to be the difference tonight as Washington's D is strong in the same areas as Seattle's O. The one exception being Washington's inability to score on the fastbreak so far this season but I dont think it should sink them tonight.
I already spoke a bit about how I think coming off a big comeback win is a tough spot to be in. Things started bad for the Fever tonight and got worse throughout the game. Scoring by quarter: 19, 19, 16, 14. It was so bad we even missed the 170.5 OVER despite 93 points in the first half. I don't expect things to be this rough for Chicago but I do think they could struggle tonight, especially on defense. Dallas shot 50% from the field tonight, 48% from 3 with 11 made and scored 94 points which is tied for their season high mark with 3 other wins. Now I know LA isn't Dallas and Chicago CERTAINLY is not Indiana but is there reason to believe LA can take advantage tonight? I think so. If you don't know by now, LA is all about the paint. 41 a game in the paint is good for 1st in the league. Chicago is right behind them with 40.4 a game. So how do these teams defend the paint? Despite some rough defensive numbers, LA is actually 4th in this category limiting teams to 32 a game. Chicago is second worst at 38.7 per game. That's a fairly large difference at this point in the season. Consider that Indiana had 89 points in their win over Chicago and 56 of those came in the paint. Chicago's shooting has been crazy in their last two games. Over 45% from the field and from 3 in both and actually managed to lose one of those games primarily because of points in the paint. The other thing that happened was the Fever shooting 25 FTs. Now they only hit 17 of them but it still resulted in 5 more pts at the line than Chicago. The sparks get a lot of points at the FT line and their opponents are avging over 20 fouls a game which is second in the league. If LA gets close to 20 FTs tonight, it should be enough for them to win this game. Revenge for Chicago from opening night? Maybe. But I think it's more like confidence for LA knowing they can beat this team. Chicago's big comeback wasn't just against anyone it was against the Aces so everything about that letdown is amplified in my mind. We shall see.
CHI Sky @ LA Sparks +5 (-110)4U
CHI Sky @ LA Sparks ML (+170)1U
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SKY@SPARKS
I already spoke a bit about how I think coming off a big comeback win is a tough spot to be in. Things started bad for the Fever tonight and got worse throughout the game. Scoring by quarter: 19, 19, 16, 14. It was so bad we even missed the 170.5 OVER despite 93 points in the first half. I don't expect things to be this rough for Chicago but I do think they could struggle tonight, especially on defense. Dallas shot 50% from the field tonight, 48% from 3 with 11 made and scored 94 points which is tied for their season high mark with 3 other wins. Now I know LA isn't Dallas and Chicago CERTAINLY is not Indiana but is there reason to believe LA can take advantage tonight? I think so. If you don't know by now, LA is all about the paint. 41 a game in the paint is good for 1st in the league. Chicago is right behind them with 40.4 a game. So how do these teams defend the paint? Despite some rough defensive numbers, LA is actually 4th in this category limiting teams to 32 a game. Chicago is second worst at 38.7 per game. That's a fairly large difference at this point in the season. Consider that Indiana had 89 points in their win over Chicago and 56 of those came in the paint. Chicago's shooting has been crazy in their last two games. Over 45% from the field and from 3 in both and actually managed to lose one of those games primarily because of points in the paint. The other thing that happened was the Fever shooting 25 FTs. Now they only hit 17 of them but it still resulted in 5 more pts at the line than Chicago. The sparks get a lot of points at the FT line and their opponents are avging over 20 fouls a game which is second in the league. If LA gets close to 20 FTs tonight, it should be enough for them to win this game. Revenge for Chicago from opening night? Maybe. But I think it's more like confidence for LA knowing they can beat this team. Chicago's big comeback wasn't just against anyone it was against the Aces so everything about that letdown is amplified in my mind. We shall see.
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