27/06/22 WNBA

49-49 +8.025 Units

Ugh, both games are such late starts. 

Leaning: Aces for some, Fever for more. 

FEVER@MERCURY

I really need to come up with a format. Maybe over the All-star break. 

*WARNING* aside from my first post, I think I have lost every bet I have made on the Fever this season. Maybe not that surprising when you bet on the worst team in the league but still.

Anyway, let's get into it. These two teams met for the first time this season less than two weeks ago (June 15th) in Indiana and Phoenix won by 13. Indiana was actually a 1 pt favourite in that one but 29 points from Tina Charles (season high) was more than enough for Indiana to drop its 11th game in 13 tries. Since that game, they are .500! haha 1-1. They beat the Sky on their home floor by 2 and then got CRUSHED in Dallas. The thing to note is that this is their 4th game in 13 nights. For Phoenix, it will be their 6th. After beating up on Indiana, they lost a tight one in Dallas, lost to Minnesota by 13 on their home floor, travelled to Minnesota and didn't fair much better losing by 12 and then travelled to Dallas with revenge on their mind and completed their mission even in the wake of the Tina Charles news. This was an emotional victory for them on a few levels; revenge, moving on without Charles, snapping a 3 game losing streak with the last two losses against Minnesota, etc. I'll pay to see them bring the same kind of energy into this one. They broke a 7 game losing streak against the Sparks on the 5th and then went on a 3 game winning streak. It actually seemed like they were getting a bit of momentum before dropping two straight against Minnesota and triggering this "divorce".

Yes, sometimes teams galvanize around this kind of thing and we definitely saw that in the first game but this was just one game and I think this might be a few too many licks for Phoenix. The BG story continues and has been a distraction all season and now Tina dips. A couple of times, I put money on the Mercury in games following frustrating BG news and I don't think I ever cashed. A distraction for sure. Besides, no matter how motivated a team might be they are still limited by their ability. Look at the most recent boxscore, or really any PHX boxscore from this season. They do not go deep into the bench. Kia Nurse won't be back this season. I'll be interested to see what kind of additions Phoenix makes to signal what their mentality will be for the rest of the season but so far crickets. For now, they basically have 6 players they trust and will probably have to give Gustafson some more run. Those 6 players include a 33 year old Shey Peddy who is averaging 32 mins per game since joining the starting lineup, a 40 year old DT who averages 30+ min a game this season, and a 31 year old SDS who is above 34 mins per game this season. Almost 50% of the Merc minutes on any given night go to someone north of 30. If you have watched even a couple of their games this season, I am sure you have seen players take plays off. They are tired and discouraged. They are frustrated. DT is complaining on basically every play. I feel for them on a human level, but I don't expect Indiana to feel any pity. I think maybe the Fever have settled into the fact that they aren't going anywhere this season and can now play with less pressure. The bar has been *correctly* lowered for this team and I think that really helps the squad mentally. As an aside, I think we could see something similar with Atlanta once they get healthy but that's for another day. 

Really quickly, I will mention that these two teams will play their next two games against each other so the "look ahead" is pretty null. Then again, I think it still has a small impact on the mentalities of these teams. Phoenix could win both these games by dd and it wouldn't really change their situation. They had championship aspirations and aren't likely to make the playoffs at this point. Do wins against the #12 seeded team really matter to them right now? Conversely, Indiana gets to "play for the future" and not really worry about their record. This team won 6 games last year and halfway through this season they already had 5. Pick one up tonight and there's no question that this team with 5(?) rookies is certainly improving. Or don't and they've still got lots of time to show improvement but I would rather they win tonight :)

Matchup discussion. I already mentioned one big part of this matchup which is age. Those 5 rookies on the Fever roster play just about as many minutes as the three 30+ players on Phoenix. What's more is that this Indiana plays at the second fastest pace in the league (98.54). Phoenix is at a pace of 97.32 despite the fact that they should probably be trying to slow the game down with their roster construction. All this really tells me is that Indiana should be able to dictate pace in this one and I think that should work to their advantage with age and rest on their side. Indiana's defensive numbers are simply not good. They have the worst defensive rating in the league at 106.9 but Phoenix isn't all that much better at 9th (105.3). As a matter of fact, there appears to be a real line drawn between the top 8 teams in defensive rating who are all 101.7 or better and the bottom 9 who are all 105.3 or worse. That gap of 3.6 is the largest between any two teams in this category and even larger than the gap between #1 (95.3 Dream) and 6th (98.5 Aces). All this to say that Phoenix isn't THAT much better than In-D. 

The Fever give up the most pts off TO (18.9), the third most fast break points (11.9) and the most points in the paint (40). Not good. Their opponents shoot a league leading 47.1% from the field and 36.7% from 3 en route to a league leading 88.6 points (over 2 points worse than 11th). ALSO NOT GOOD. Ok, let's break it down. To get points off turnovers you need turnovers. Indiana is 8th in turnovers and Phoenix is 8th in forcing them. Even when it comes to points off turnovers, Phoenix is clearly efficient with their chances but still clocks in at 5th. How about fast break points? Merc average 9.3 (9th). Points in the paint? 31.9 good for 8th. Once again we see a bit of a line drawn. 7th is 2.2 points better and Phoenix is definitely on the weak side of this line. Merc are 6th in FG%, 5th in pts and 11th in 3p%. Don't forget those Phoenix numbers include Charles. Look, as bad as Indiana has been I just don't think there's anything that Phoenix does especially well for them to lean on in tough times. A lot of the time, it seems like one player just shoulders the load for a bit until someone else picks it up or doesn't and they just lose. Conversely, I do believe Indiana has some strengths that they are starting to lean into and I think those strengths will be especially "strengthy" against this Phoenix team, especially tonight. 

The scariest numbers for Phoenix have to do with their rebounding. Keep in mind Tina Charles played in most of the games that make up these stats. Phoenix is last in the league for rebounding. They average 31 a game (12th) and have a 46.4% rebound rate tied with Seattle for last. This should be Indiana's path around their poor shooting numbers. Both teams give up an average 10.8 2nd chance points. Whereas Phoenix is last in the league scoring these points (7.4), Indiana is actually 3rd at 11.7 per game. They should absolutely be able to capitalize here, especially with the departure of Charles. In their first meeting, Indiana won rebounds 33-39 (Charles had 7), o-rebs 5-16(!), and 2nd chance points 9-17. Yes, Phoenix still won that game but I think Indiana should have a clear blue print on how to attack this game tonight. Fast break points were pretty even but I'd be very surprised to see that again. This goes double for points off turnovers which PHX won 12-2 despite turnovers being pretty even 12-13. Honestly, I just feel like if the Fever run for 40 minutes and attack the boards this should be a relatively painless victory for them. NaLyssa Smith is pretty key to this team's success. She had 4 and 4 in their last game and they lost by 26. The game before that she had 26 and 11 in a win over Chicago. Before that was Phoenix where she went 4 and 14. We know they lost. Before that was another win (in Minnesota) with 21 and 14. Young teams and especially young players have big ups and downs like this. I'm hoping to catch her and the whole team on an upswing. Not only was her last game a disappointment but her last game against this team was also disappointing and now she doesn't have to worry about Tina Charles. 

Indiana didn't just lose by 26 against Dallas, they lost all 4 quarters of that game. How do teams that lost all 4 quarters of their last game fair in the next one? Not too shabby.

All-time:      SU:13-11 (1.8,54.2%) ATS:15-9 (5.0,62.5%)3.15OU:17-7-0 (5.0,70.8%)162.92

Season:       SU:3-6 (-2.4,33.3%) ATS:5-4 (2.1,55.6%)4.8OU:9-0-0 (12.9,100.0%)163.05

Let's refine that to Away dogs like the Fever will be tonight.

All-time:      SU:7-8 (-0.7,46.7%) ATS:10-5 (6.0,66.7%)6.63OU:12-3-0 (7.1,80.0%)163.4

Season:       SU:3-4 (-0.3,42.9%) ATS:5-2 (6.2,71.4%)6.56OU:7-0-0 (11.1,100.0%)163.94

Refining again to teams that lost all 4 quarters on the road and then play on the road their next game as dogs only leaves us 8 games all time but still...

All-time:     SU:5-3 (1.5,62.5%) ATS:5-3 (6.2,62.5%)4.69OU:5-3-0 (2.3,62.5%)164.94

Season:     SU:2-1 (4.0,66.7%) ATS:2-1 (7.8,66.7%)4.62OU:3-0-0 (8.2,100.0%)168.62

Everything leans the same way.

For those wondering, road teams off a road loss of more than 20 pts have covered 53.8% of the time. Increase this to more than 22 pts and the ATS coverage increases to 54.9%. Increase it again to over 25 points and we get %57.7% coverage. None of this is huge but in general teams are more likely to respond after these blowouts than not. It also leans to the OVER in a similar way but there's barely anything there. 

I think that's it. Maybe I'm forgetting something. I'll add it later if so. 

IND Fever +7 (-110) @ PHX Mercury 4U

IND Fever ML (+255) @ PHX Mercury 1U

IND Fever @ PHX Mercury OVER 169.0 (-110)1U

Hey Lippy great stuff, I really appreciate when someone puts in the work and you've done that. Best of luck on your plays, hope they all win for you 

My .02 is Phx knows this season is a throw away. I can't see them very motivated the rest of the way and especially in a home home versus league worst Indiana. WNBA Phx have a Laker's mentality at times of showing up or not or generally not caring. Seems like Phx has played every other day in the month of June too which doesn't bode well if things start heading south for them. I'll tail your plays and add Indy TT over 80.5.

@StraightWagers

 Hey there. Thanks for stopping by. Seems like we’re in agreement. It’s one thing to play angry for a game and win when people doubt you but it’s actually a lot harder to sustain that energy especially in games you’re supposed to win. 

I also appreciate the franchise history/context you’re providing. Relatively new to watching the W so this is an area where I am lacking but even still it’s clear to me that this team isn’t interested in sneaking into the playoffs and continuing to claw through the season. They’d rather just try again next year. As you said, just like the Lakers. 

BOL tonight 

ACES@SPARKS

I am on record as saying that one of the Aces' weaknesses is their depth. That will certainly be tested tonight with Chelsea Gray out. This is a get right game for Las Vegas to be sure. They've lost 4 games total and dropped 2 of their last 2. They have lost to Washington twice, Connecticut once and Chicago once. So what do these teams have in common? Well, when you include LV that's the top 4 teams in the league for +/-. They are also the top 4 teams in net rating. So, it takes both. I really don't think LA has it what it takes. They are second last in net rating. Not only that, but they struggle where Las Vegas is best. Aces are one of three teams avging more than 9 3pm per game. They also lead the league in 3p% at 36.%. Sparks are the worst in the league at defending the 3 with 38%. We know the Sparks strength is in the paint and even if they aren't impressive in that area the Aces are more than serviceable in this area at 5th. Besides, defense should be a focus tonight for LV. Dear Aces, Don't think about Seattle and Tina Charles, just remember how much Cambage sucks.

LV Aces -8 (-110) @ LA Sparks 2U

LV Aces @ LA Sparks UNDER 175.0 (-110) 1U

Lfg 

Phoenix is way more “in” to this game than I expected. 

trash indiana loses every fking quarter trash team 

Yeah lippy....i think after that wings game and TC leaving they're using the F TC rallying cry to make a move for the 8th spot. Merc probably saw that sparks would likely  lose to the Aces and dream should lose today vs the Myst jumping up 2 games. They were probably licking their chops to feast on the fever. Maybe the next one fever cover, but with their defense it makes it hard to back 'em...they're just not on the Merc level talent and exp. wise.

@SpartanG

 Ya I even said this kind of thing can bring a group together. I just misjudged this team’s heart. 

Either that or I’m just cursed with the Fever, haha. 

We needed more cow bell.

betting on bad teams in the W is just not the thing to do as they are so inept at scoring it’s laughable

i do appreciate your write ups Lippy keep ‘em coming. I’m. Going back to my guns and just bet unders as I cannot stand watching these gals look like they are playing with a beach ball the bounces are so cringey. BOL tonight