28/06/22

50-53 +0.325 Units

Fever curse continues… or I just had the wrong read on how much Phoenix cares. Sophie is so good for that locker room. 

I am waiting to see who is active for Atlanta. 

yeah i saw caldwell and turner were released and i heard some players maybe coming back...just cant get confirmation just yet...

"The Dream do get some important players off the injury report tonight, with Erica Wheeler and Kristy Wallace expected to play and Kia Vaughn possibly coming out of COVID protocols."

per jason logan....covers sports betting analyst

Wallace and wheeler in, Vaughn probable and Coffey out

nice thx

@SpartanG

 Damn. Where did you get the release news? Kind of surprised about Caldwell. 

@LippyLeans

yeah caldwell had that one hit wonder game vs the wings and boy did she disappear last few games.  Virtually non existent vs the liberty and sun once there was film out.  Kinda like Bell for the Aces yesterday...when she started i knew i was leary on my -8 without Gray in the mix.....and of course she did nothing.  You were right Lippy....my thoughts on the aces depth mirror yours.  Even with Riquana back full strength at some point....it's probably not enough

 i follow todd roman on twitter...beat writer for ny liberty and wnba writer for beyond sports.  His exact words were..  they were no longer on the roster. I figured released.

what I do want to know is where fazz got his info lol   i was searching for those injury confirmations and couldnt find it.  luckily we all know fazz is as reliable as you can get

DREAM@MYSTICS

Atlanta gets Wheeler and Wallace back. I feel like the first game back is a bit of a coin toss sometimes but if even one of them has a good game and the other doesn't play horribly it will definitely be an upgrade to the last two games. Sometimes injuries can be a blessing for a team. It won't necessarily feel that way at the time, but for someone like Aari or AD, this opportunity has been huge. The hope is that you can reduce the minutes for these players and still get contributions now that they have more confidence and playing experience. Two straight losses for Atlanta. Washington has 1 game winning "streak" but it was a big one winning in Las Vegas by 1 point in overtime. 

Home teams off a road OT win of 3 points or less (one possession):

SU:6-7 (0.7,46.2%) ATS:5-8 (-2.1,38.5%)-2.77OU:7-6-0 (3.5,53.8%)157.08

Or take the locations out of it...

SU:20-26 (-0.5,43.5%) ATS:19-27 (-1.2,41.3%)-0.71OU:23-21-2 (0.4,52.3%)157.78

Another interesting thing about Washington tonight is that it's sandwiched between at least 3 road games on either side. 

Home teams sandwiched between at least 3 away games:

SU:16-9 (2.5,64.0%) ATS:12-13 (-1.4,48.0%)-3.88OU:17-8-0 (7.6,68.0%)158.0

Not so much to go on for the sides (though the OVER looks good and the OT numbers don't disagree), but I bring it up because Washington is 6-4 at home , an easily calculable 60%. Look what happens when we refine the above search to teams with a home winning percentage under 61%. 

SU:8-9 (-0.9,47.1%) ATS:5-12 (-3.8,29.4%)-2.88OU:12-5-0 (5.6,70.6%)157.03

Strangely enough, the Chicago Sky were in this same situation less than two weeks ago against this very same Atlanta team. The game went to OT and Atlanta covered as 7.5 point dogs. The teams also combined for 182 pts in regulation. Wheeler did not play in this game. Coffey and Wallace combined for 21 minutes as both got hurt early on. Chicago did not have Candace Parker. 

The Mystics haven't been great after big wins and I'm hoping that continues tonight. I think every game against Washington is meaningful for Howard. Atlanta is 0-2 against Washington. The first game wasn't so bad as they just lost by 5 and that was in Washington but the next one (not too long after) was a 70-50 beat down in Atlanta where Howard was scoreless. I think she could have a huge game tonight and having some more "brand name" players out there should give her more space to operate. Washington isn't just sandwiched between a lot of road games tonight, they are also sandwiched between trips to Las Vegas and Connecticut (the undisputed top 2 teams in the league). These two teams will finish the series up in Atlanta a little over a week from now but this still looks like a much better opportunity for Atlanta to get a win. 

I know this is a clash of two top defenses and that's why the line is so low but I was already leaning over for a few reasons (Atlanta's offense is looking a lot better, Rhyne Howard focus, weapons coming back, tired legs for Washington etc.) and the stats that showed up on the above queries put me over the edge. 

It's crazy how similar a lot of the defensive numbers are for these teams. Atlanta allows 14.9 pts off TOs and Washington allows 15. The mystics allow 9.6 2nd chancers and the dream allow 9.9 per game. Dream allow 9.5 fast break points and Mystics allow 9.7 per game. Atlanta leads the league in preventing points in the paint at 27.8 and Washington is second with 30.1 per game. They are right beside each other in the standings for all of those. 

ATL Dream +7.5 (-110) @ WAS Mystics 2U

ATL Dream @ WAS Mystics OVER 153.5 (-110) 1U

DAL Wings +3 (-110) @ MIN Lynx 2U

DAL Wings @ MIN Lynx OVER 165.0 (-110) 1U

I was worried that Cloud would play with purpose. Oh well. OVER should be good 

Dallas really can’t do anything on offense. 

Tomorrow can’t come soon enough 

Why complain so much or make excuses. Just say you was wrong and move on not hard.