29/06/22

51-56 -4.175 Units

CON Sun +2 (-110) @ CHI Sky 5U

CON Sun @ CHI Sky UNDER 166.0 (-110) 1U

Lfg lippy

Lets hear the lippy take

@SpartanG

 Unfortunately I don’t have a lot of time but I will throw down some notes. Good luck today

 all good lippy appreciate your insights.  I like the Sun for a few reasons.  I think they bring their hard hats and defense this afternoon.  Hopefully points wont feel so easy for the sky like it has been the past 5 games.  Sky tend to let up at home only covering 2 out of 8 and after 3 game win streaks they tend to take an L.  No wade on the sidelines and another coach has covid....curt miller could have the edge in late game situations...maybe.  That turkish coach got bailed by sloot or maybe that's how it was drawn up lol.  Conn is a pretty good road team and has revenge. Lots of motivation for both sides, but I feel it more from Conn. Copper coming back should be a positive for them if that back is right.  Bet Conn feels like they should have won last time owning points in the paint and rebounds.  They outscored them 62-50 on two pointers but a couple 3's and 10 fts did them in.

SUN@SKY

No reason to think either team will look ahead. Sun at full strength (minus JT) and Sky missing Copper but I don't think there is any room to underestimate Chicago no matter who is on the floor. In their first matchup this season, Sun came very close to a win in Connecticut but fell apart down the stretch. Sun haven't been shooting as well of late but their strength is really in 2nd chance points where they are first. Chicago gives up the most 2nd chance points in the league and is missing a solid rebounder in Copper. 

The Sun have championship aspirations and in order to prove to themselves that this is realistic, they need to pick up wins against the best teams. This team beat them in the finals last year and is 1-0 against them this season with a win in Connecticut. They will play 2 more times and perhaps I am making too much of this matchup but for a team that is 3-3 since (and including) the 10th when they lost to Chicago and 10-3 prior there's an obvious bit of floundering that needs to be corrected. It can be hard to get up for other teams when you feel like you'll always end up playing this obstacle and never over coming it. With that being said, they still got up for the revenge game against Seattle. Maybe that 3-3 is more of an indicator of where this team is at right now and a poor result today could really change how I see this team but I think top 4 is indisputable and I will look for them to prove that today. Please feed Brionna Jones. 

Playoff feel + early start has me on the UNDER. As a general rule, I keep my totals plays small but I am seriously rethinking this strategy. The idea was that I had a better feel for sides, but this season is proving otherwise. I will play a bit with my system and process as the season goes on. Everything about this season is just getting used to the league and tendencies and personalities and such. I will be more than happy to break even or lose a few units if it sets me up better for the future. 

(FH) CON Sun @ CHI Sky UNDER 82.0 (-110) 1U 

.... Right so Copper is in but I still like it a lot. First game back, not second.

yup and coming off the bench maybe to lighten the load on mins restriction or get her in rotation so she is closing games....hopefully it screws them up lol

Suns will always be the suns . Good regular season but choke in playoffs . Suns will never win the championship caliper team

its ok sky are only shooting 84%

IND Fever +7 (-110) @ PHX Mercury 4U

IND Fever ML (+250) @ PHX Mercury 1U

(2H) CON Sun @ CHI Sky UNDER 81.5 (-110) 2U

51-60 -14.075 Units

Why are you chasing Indiana again ? Team is terrible right now 

@Pho-20

 Yes, the Fever suck and I’m probably throwing away another 5.4 units but I do think it’s difficult to sweep any team in a season and a lot of the things that made me like Indiana last game still apply to this game. DT has the kind of personality where I think she could see the all-star picks as a slight but the biggest slight is still for Indiana. Mercury are headed to Chicago next game so there’s plenty of look ahead potential. Conversely, Indiana’s July is terrifying and they may not win a single game that month. Seriously, 3 against Seattle and 3 against Las Vegas with Connecticut, Chicago, and Minnesota sprinkled in. 

BOL to everyone, whatever they chose to do. As I said earlier, this is a learning season for me. I’ve been emotional at points and gone against my numbers but I am trying not to do that anymore. 

pho 20 i totally agree with you fever might cover but i would only play the mercury in this spot. Until the fever can show me they can cover.

You said it’s hard to sweep a team . Go check Washington last night sweeping atlanta  . Don’t say it’s hard . In wnba when you are bad you are bad . 

I have no interest in trying to convince anyone of any of my plays.

I offer them up and try to provide my thinking as I have received good responses on that win or lose. 

I am seeing like 70%+ support for Mercury and Aces tonight. I would be really surprised if both cover so if the Fever lay another egg, I am probably looking at -25 or so. My units are small but if I get to -50 I will stop betting real money so as to save half the bankroll for next season. 

Anyway, I am in the camp that believes it won't be instant success for Charles in Seattle. I really expected more support for Seattle tonight as the Charles news seems to make them instant championship darlings. She is a great player and the type of player that they need. I do expect this to be very good for them but for the second time today I will back the road dog in a playoff atmosphere game. Statement game for Las Vegas following the news. Unfortunately they will once again be without Gray but combining that news with the Charles news and Las Vegas recent play makes me wonder why Seattle isn't favored by more. Second game back for Riquna Williams who has yet to make a real impact on the season. Would love to see it tonight, obviously. 

LV Aces ML (-110) @ SEA Storm 5U

LV Aces @ SEA Storm UNDER 165.0 (-110) 1U

Gray is off the injury. She should start.

The reporting on this league is insane. I read multiple times today in multiple places that she didn't travel 

Yep sabreena merchant from sb nation tweeted gray was off the injury report and they have a full roster today 3 hrs ago

Especially in the first half, I have to favour the group that has experience playing together. 

(FH) LV Aces -0.5 (+100) @ SEA Storm 2U

@SpartanG

 Thanks. I am slowly building my rolodex with all these names you drop haha

Indiana getting spanked hard . Stop betting crap teams 

Why aren’t we betting against Indiana every 2nd half? They come out like they ate ice cream sundaes every single 2nd half. Reminds me of my kids pee wee soccer league where there’s 1 or 2 teams that can actually play then the other teams run around in opposite directions and there’s always a fat kid that just gives up and lays down on the pitch. Indiana is that fat kid.