Game #3 - Western Conference Finals: Lynx @ Mercury

Question

Hey all,WNBA Overall: 78-66-1Play-offs: 6-5Well the time has come for one of these teams to say goodbye for the season and the other to advance through to play either Sky or Fever (Fever IMO). What a crazy season it has been. The Mercury broke the record for their 29-5 S/U season and the Lynx once again were a dominant force. I just wished these 2 teams were in different conferences so we could see them both in the WNBA Finals. Ah well, thats not going to happen but what is going to happen is one of the best female basketball games you have even seen for all those who are fans of basketball. Game #1: Mercury wins 85-71 @ homeGame total hit 156, game was on track for the over until a 30 point 2Q. Other than that quarter, all the other quarters hit over 40. The teams combined for just 25% from behind the arc going just 7-28 and free throws were 33-40 in this game. The Lynx shot below 40% in this game as well which is very rare for them and MM had only 9 points. Game # 2: Lynx wins 82-77 @ homeAmazingly, Vegas set the total line at 159.5, what happens, the game hits 159. Crazy. What sticks out for me is that the Mercury kept the Lynx to their lowest score of a quarter this season, 9 points in the first. For those who have followed WNBA, we all know that this is just crazy keeping a Lynx team to 9 points. Still though, the game hit 159 after only 31 points in the 1Q. So after the 1Q, the teams combined for 128 points which is 4.266 points per minute. Combined, the teams hit 37-41 FT&#x27;s and just 10-34 3 pointers (29%) which is better than what Game #1 had for us but still low for both these 2 teams.So as you can read above, I am leaning the over. The pace has always been in both games with the teams putting up 138 shots in game #1 and then 128 in game #2. I think it will remain close and we might see around 40 FT&#x27;s during the game as well as some extra ones towards the end. I am hoping for the line to drop below 160 so won&#x27;t hit the submit button until I see some line movement and closer to tip-off.BOL

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Hey all,WNBA Overall: 78-66-1Play-offs: 6-5Well the time has come for one of these teams to say goodbye for the season and the other to advance through to play either Sky or Fever (Fever IMO). What a crazy season it has been. The Mercury broke the record for their 29-5 S/U season and the Lynx once again were a dominant force. I just wished these 2 teams were in different conferences so we could see them both in the WNBA Finals. Ah well, thats not going to happen but what is going to happen is one of the best female basketball games you have even seen for all those who are fans of basketball. Game #1: Mercury wins 85-71 @ homeGame total hit 156, game was on track for the over until a 30 point 2Q. Other than that quarter, all the other quarters hit over 40. The teams combined for just 25% from behind the arc going just 7-28 and free throws were 33-40 in this game. The Lynx shot below 40% in this game as well which is very rare for them and MM had only 9 points. Game # 2: Lynx wins 82-77 @ homeAmazingly, Vegas set the total line at 159.5, what happens, the game hits 159. Crazy. What sticks out for me is that the Mercury kept the Lynx to their lowest score of a quarter this season, 9 points in the first. For those who have followed WNBA, we all know that this is just crazy keeping a Lynx team to 9 points. Still though, the game hit 159 after only 31 points in the 1Q. So after the 1Q, the teams combined for 128 points which is 4.266 points per minute. Combined, the teams hit 37-41 FT&#x27;s and just 10-34 3 pointers (29%) which is better than what Game #1 had for us but still low for both these 2 teams.So as you can read above, I am leaning the over. The pace has always been in both games with the teams putting up 138 shots in game #1 and then 128 in game #2. I think it will remain close and we might see around 40 FT&#x27;s during the game as well as some extra ones towards the end. I am hoping for the line to drop below 160 so won&#x27;t hit the submit button until I see some line movement and closer to tip-off.BOL

fadeORdie · Answer

Hi Aussie. New to forums here. I&#x27;ve been betting WNBA this season (well mostly Lynx games to be specific), haven&#x27;t done too well, only up a couple of units. I enjoy reading your threads.Mercury/Lynx G3:My betting strategy is usually based on line movements. I&#x27;ve been monitoring this game and here&#x27;s what I&#x27;ve noticed so far - when lines first opened money flowed in for Mercury and line moved accordingly. Now it seems people are hammering the tasty Lynx &#x2B;5.5 but line won&#x27;t budge. This means only one thing - Mercury wins ML and will probably cover. However I&#x27;m betting half a unit on Lynx line as I&#x27;m a huge fan of Maya Moore and would like to see her in the finals.0.5U Lynx 1H line when it opens0.5U Lynx &#x2B;5.5 FGBOL

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Hi Fade,Welcome aboard buddy.. Glad you like the threads. Covers can be a wonderful site when used correctly. Totally agree, line movement is almost as important as capping the actual game as we have seen recently with how sharp Vegas has been with totals especially. I personally think that Mercury wins this S/U but whether they cover the spread or not is a different story. MM is a great player and we saw what she can do in Game #2. Really enjoy watching her play. BOL with your plays buddy.

ciccio74 · Answer

Hi Aussie, new to the forum too!!I read your topic all the season and want only to say a big Thank you to you Wagers and company for the very good info you share....thank to you was a very good season....:)I follow wnba from 3 years now...i follow day after day but for me is very difficult to cap because the most part of the games are played when here in europe is full night (for example: pho-minnie is played at 4.00 in the moning!), so is impossible to see absence, the last hour maket (is the more important to see!!) and see the games (on bet365 every wnba game is showed lived, for example)...Said this, i saw the "comedy" of the last game and think pho will win....may be over, as you think...ciao

mackmach · Answer

hey oz just wanna ask, do you think australia has a chance with a plus 5 against lithuania?

Eezy-breezy · Answer

Hey Aussie (and the crew wagers, axion, joe, bogues and everyone else). New here but followed your threads all season. Wouldn't like to congratulate you's on your good year. Love your threads with the great vibe, knowledge and guys going around.

Anyways tomorrow I have lynx +5.5. Dunno why I feel so strongly towards this play other than the fact that I think Moore tears it up. Phoenix on paper and in real life have the better team and should win but we will see. I wouldn't have a clue on my record as I usually did parlays but I would say my single plays would be negatives as it seems whatever the total I pick is wrong.

Goodluck fellas. I'll be back on 5 hours before tip off as I have work. Looking forward to reading what you's guys think. Have a good one

Eezy-breezy · Answer

Would like to congratulate you guys I meant to say. Hahahah sorry for that

axion · Answer

Sup Aussie and all. The game tonight will be fun, I might restock on Maker's Mark for this special occasion. I have no idea what will happen, a lot will depend on BG: she needs to handle the triple teams better and not force bad shots and limit turnovers. I have a gut feeling, the Mercs will really try to establish a lead early on, b/c if the game is ~tied at HT, the Lynx will probably win it: they are more experienced as a group and the Mercs do not play as well in the 2H (hello, Indiana).

On the other hand, if Moore stays hot and Whalen keeps on with her heroics, expect the game to stay close throughout. Ultimately, Bonner and Taylor (and Phillips) are I think going to be the key. If they cannot hit those open threes, the Mercs will probably lose; I think the Lynx will keep triple-teaming Griner so the Mercs will need to hit those open shots. This is gonna be dynamite.

iNeedSomePicks · Answer

i never got a welcoming like this.    anyways you guys are complllleeeetely blind. The 2014 spurs team is one of the greatest teams of all time. this is very similiar to heat vs spurs. you got your defending champs lynx (miami) and here comes this incredible team that is just amazing to watch play (phoenix).(spurs). TRUST ME phoenix will win by 10&#x2B;. its not even close as to who the better team is.  although to the blind it may look that way just like people thought miami had a chance. THE 2014 MERCURY ARE THE BEST TEAM OF ALL TIME IN THE WNBA. you guys will see that tonight.

axion · Answer

Using all caps does not make your statement "TRUER". This is just one game, and while PHX is supertalented I think they are still a season and one more solid bench player away from reaching their apex. We&#x27;ll see; I feel like anything happen today in this super-pressurized encounter.

brutaljoe · Answer

PICKS we will see. I think you are wrong here. PHO is a soft team. They THInK they will win by 10 plus. They wont.Minny will keep up. Take the 5.5 and watch a great game tonite. brutaljoe

brutaljoe · Answer

Equating SAS to PHO does a disservice to SAS. SAS has a great coach. PHO average at best. SAS play as a TEAM. PHO not as much. If anything MINnY is like SAS and PHO is like Mia . Supremely talented but with fatal flaws. Cant wait to see. Brutaljoe

StraightWagers · Answer

morning everyone, great to see some new faces in here

man this is the type of game I may just sit and wait until halftime, so much conflicting data: Phx defense is phenomenal off a loss, but does Minn really lose their 4th straight in Phx this season? the under has barely hit in both playoff games so we are due for an over, but does the intensity of this win or go home game create a defensive battle? what to do what to do....

under 147.5 Chi/Ind 10 bags this should be a grind fest, I think Catch and Larkins will control the boards and tempo, this is so much pressure on both teams there is no way I see this getting into a fast paced game for all 4 qtrs., we may get 1 42pt qtr but I can see a bunch of 29pt qtrs. too

brutaljoe · Answer

WAGERS for sure on the IND under. I am making it a MAX play. Brutaljoe

MuggsyBogues · Answer

Go Team Australia!(Ukraine already &#x27;shocked the world&#x27; earlier today)

iNeedSomePicks · Answer

ax their starting five plays like 35 min each. only reason they would need a bench player is caause of foul trouble. we have never seen a team this good period tho.brutal when the crowd gets hyped tonight and  grinner goes beast mode you gon see how soft pho really is.  phoenix by dd

axion · Answer

Freaking Lithuania, how on earth you score 50 pts on the 1Q and 25 pts in the 2Q.

MuggsyBogues · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by StraightWagers]  morning everyone, great to see some new faces in here&#xD;&#xA;man this is the type of game I may just sit and wait until halftime, so much conflicting data: Phx defense is phenomenal off a loss, but does Minn really lose their 4th straight in Phx this season? the under has barely hit in both playoff games so we are due for an over, but does the intensity of this win or go home game create a defensive battle? what to do what to do....&#xD;&#xA;under 147.5 Chi/Ind 10 bags this should be a grind fest, I think Catch and Larkins will control the boards and tempo, this is so much pressure on both teams there is no way I see this getting into a fast paced game for all 4 qtrs., we may get 1 42pt qtr but I can see a bunch of 29pt qtrs. too  [/Quote]FWIW, games Indiana and Chicago played following an OT game:INDIANA (3-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 to the OVER) IND 76 - 81 PHO (6/27/14) - Indiana &#x2B;5 / 158 push on spread/totalIND 79 - 65 CON (5/29/14) - Indiana -5 / 140 OVER by 4IND 63 - 79 WAS (5/23/14) - Indiana -4 / 146 under by 4CHI 72 - 85 IND (9/20/13) - Chicago -7 / 143 (playoffs) OVER by 14CHI 77 - 82 IND (9/6/13) - Chicago -7 / 145 OVER by 14IND 67 - 82 PHO (6/8/13) - Indiana -4 / 159 under by 10CHICAGO (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 to the under)IND 82 - 64 CHI (7/17/14) - Indiana -5 / 151 under by 5CON 79 - 69 CHI (6/25/14) - Connecticut -1 / 162 under by 14CHI 75 - 83 IND (6/20/14) - Chicago -3 / 151 OVER by 7LA 80 - 76 CHI (8/13/13) - Los Angeles -6 / 159  under by 3----------This somewhat supports the under bet, and clearly supports Indiana bet. In the past two seasons, when either the Sky or the Fever were coming off an overtime game, Indiana won 4 of 4 straight up and ATS (by 8, 18, 5, and 13 points)

StraightWagers · Answer

good stuff, thanks Muggsy

brutaljoe · Answer

PICKS When push comes to shove and Taurisi is not getting her calls and gets that first tech foul and Griner is wondering what row her "fiancee" is in and how tasty the spicy fried chicken was that Glory made last night... instead of getting a rebound, then we will see what PHO is made of. I think a pinata that needs to be popped with a broomstick...  but let the game begin!

LONG-TU · Answer

UNDER!   Game 1  under. Game 2 elimination for Minnesota under . Game 3 " elimination for both teams " will be under too.

MuggsyBogues · Answer

World - FIBA World Championship &lt; Australia - Lithuania &gt; full time score 82:75

guyhopestowin · Answer

Congrats Oz for WC win, Lithuania is nowhere as good as people say, their defense is weak, but this doesnt mean that Aussies played a great game, congrats again

what this means is in round of 16 Lithuania will be eliminated

guyhopestowin · Answer

I will bet at least 10 bags for 2nd half will be probably over 2h for tonights gamein 20 mins at WC, Finland will play with Dominican Republic, thinking Findland cover spread and over, any ideas?

iNeedSomePicks · Answer

Brutal. This phoenix team is the best team ever. I really dont think any1 can hang wit mercs. Mya will not score more than 25 imo and grinner is gonna go BEAST mode. They through away the season to get this team together they have been waiting a long time to take down minn. And i think they do it with authority. Final score 87-74 mercs

Game #3 - Western Conference Finals: Lynx @ Mercury

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