Indigo lines for Sunday W

I right now have some time on my hands and will give my relative strength lines....gets things down on paper, crystallizes thoughts, I can pretend I am  world famous  and millions tune in to get a glimpse of the genius within, and/or maybe one or two will be entertained....it's all in the mix.

Of course if you think these are totally different than what you would have, it's your discretion to fade me all the way to the bank....differing opinions are what makes a market,......don't take it as a personal attack.

First off, helluva win by the Sparks over Minnesota...the older Ogwumike suddenly can shoot three pointers and the Sparks  missing three starters went into Minny and got a win.  Cheryl Reeve can really coach, playing quite a few first and second year players, and they are playing hard, together and well.  I don't get why Fowles is sitting out long stretches of games at crunch time, but perhaps Reeve is trying to pace her, through what probably will be her last season.

And the Sparks?,,...if they can combine everyone into a cohesive unit, they are gonna win the title again.  They have the ultimate closer, the best one on one defender in Beard, and two savvy glass cleaners who will shoot over 55%...and their best player, Parker has been out, their suddenly very good Ruskie center has been out as well as Beard.  They will be far and away the most talented team in the comp when they all come back.  Can Derek Fisher make it happen?....so far I have been impressed with the exception of not handling the ball very well in the last five minutes, no complaints about him at all, though he seems to get a mickey mouse voice when the pressure is on.  

Now Liz could go monster-mode and  just completely dunk the ball along with a few Sparks at the same time, which sometimes will overcome every other advantage,.....that oughta be interesting when the Aces and the Sparks collide.

1)   Mystics -15    Wings    170

Wings are unbackable at any price until they get a pointguard,....the one they are using now  can't shoot, play defense, create for others or run an offense.  If Moriah Jefferson could play this team would be instantly 10 points better...what is Jefferson's status anyway?

Mystics are almost auto-OVERs until the Mister Bookmaker starts making their totals in the 180 range.  Brian will try to slow the game down for the Wings, but the Mystics are so superior we could see the mercy rule in this game.

2) Dream  +6    Sun   160

The Dream beat the Sun three straight last season.  Every Sun player will be reminded of this if for whatever reason someone is not aware. 

Make no mistake, the Sun will look to pummel the Dream, who have fallen off a cliff.  Still, the Dream match up relatively well against the physicality of Alyssa Thomas with Breland and Elizabeth Williams inside.  Sykes and Hayes have both been net deficits for the Dream this year though and they were big positive difference makers last year.  Their defense, which was so good last year, has been average.  The Dream are ignores at best and fades at worst this year...can't back  them, until they convince me.

Liberty +9     Aces 164

How long is Katie Smith gonna last?....they are losing games in epic fashion, losing last game despite hardly missing a shot  in the first half of their last game versus the Mystics.  Tina Charles clearly outplayed Della Donne and it didn't matter, though somehow the Liberty managed to cover a game for most Liberty backers.  Liberty another untouchable team....I couldn't take them if they were +14.

Fever +2'  Mercury 160

Fever getting above average guard play, which in modern basketball is more important than post play, and Candace Dupree is a rock for the Fever.  Bonner is a superstar in the making, but will the good Griner show up or the disinterested one for the Mercury?  "Yeah, you can dunk Griner, but how about making your team better?"

Sky +3    Storm 170

This one should be a track meet, as the Sky like to run and the Storm like to wear down their opponents with their superior fitness.  Something is clearly missing in the Sky, and me and some other interested parties thought it was Heather on the sidelines distracting her team.

Evidently it wasn't her, because the team has looked worse this year than last.  Their defensive effort isn't anything special and it is a race to see who gets to shoot in the Sky's World,   Their offense is a thing of beauty to watch sometimes.....too bad basketball is not a beauty contest and there are no points for style in the W.

Early leans are on UNDERs in Fever and Dream games and OVER in Sky.

Yes, we'll see INP....it looks pretty even to me between the Mystics and Sun.

Here's some data for the information geeks out there, which includes me.  Last year UNDERs cashed in a noticeable rate during day games.....so inquiring minds want to know.........

was that just a random happenstance last year, or is something that has been replicated over time?

                               Weekend day games

Day                    Home team                         O/U

Saturday       7-14 ATS (-2.36)              7-14 o/u (-0.36) 

Sunday         129-98 ATS (+1.46)         99-125 o/u (-1.02)

Day weekend games have gone 139-106 UNDER (not including playoffs, which hits about 50%), covers almost 57% of the time.

AMBER NOT Heather Indigo. Amber Stocks. A body that I will not soon forget. And a sexy dresser. Yu got to believe she is promiscuous but in a good way. 

Brutal one 

BJ, yes, stand corrected, I promise it won't happen again...hehe.

Lines out

Team       Vegas line             mine               Opponent     

Mystics    -14'   157           -15   170              Wings

Dream      +5'  160             +6  160               Sun

Liberty    +10   162              +9' 154              Aces

Fever       +1    158             +2' 160              Mercury

Sky .        -1'   163               +3 170              Storm

Seven point differential in the sky/Storm game and a 13 point differential in the Mystics/Wings game....THAT is amazing and probably the all-time record for line discrepancy in Indigo history.

And the Sky is favored over the champs?....no entidendo hombre.

Plays:

1)  Mystics OVER 157'      if the Wings can score 70 this will cover

2)  Sky OVER 162'           Basically I am putting money down on the fact that the bookmaker or his freakin' computer doesn't

                                     know WNBA basketball very well.

3) Sun -5'                      The Sun will get their revenge 

Yeah, well, spaghetti is difficult to eat too.

You're an idiot, waste someone else's time, or get some reading glasses.

1)   Dallas OVER loser, neither team could throw it in the ocean....poor play on my part.  Della Donne has not done anything this year so far.

2)   Sun -5' winner, by the skin of their teeth....things have not changed for the Sun on the road,...big first half lead, Curt sends hoards of subs in the second half, can't score, can't make free throws, THIS time they get the win/cover, barely.  Might consider playing them in first halves only on the road.