Making my own lines has proven successful in the CFL forum....will give this a try for a couple of games to see if this can be predictive, or not.
I am not predicting what Vegas' lines will be, but I am putting my own relative strengths of the teams involved. When there's a deviation between mine and theirs, it will be worth looking at for me to see if that leads to likelihood of pointspread success. In other words, "are my lines more predictive than theirs?"
In the CFL, the public has been betting into Vegas lines to bring theirs closer to mine. Doing this well in one sports doesn't mean it happens in another. This has helped my handicapping in the CFL and I'd like to think that it will help me in the WNBA as well.
I am sure that your opinion will vary from mine....do not take my opinion as a personal attack on yours, ok? Differing opinions are what makes a market.
Indigo lines, Tuesday
Home line Away total
Sun -4 Mystics 167
Fever +7 Storm 163
Lynx -10 Liberty 162
Sparks -4 Dream 160
The Suns maybe are grasping that they may not make the playoffs after being a dominant team for the first 8 games. The Aces are breathing down their necks....Connecticut does have a ton of home games remaining, but they've lost three in a row as home favorites They maybe have teased enough bettors with their performance versus the Wings for others to consider them, I am still not buying them and could consider going against them off an impressive win.
The Storm could conceivably rest Sue Bird in this game versus the Fever, as it would take a lot of ineptitude to lose to the Fever. Pondexter is now getting a lot of shots for the Fever and started out 1 of 9 from the floor versus the Aces. She's one of the players that never seems to be without a job, the Drew Willy of the WNBA.
The Lynx, similar to the Sun put it together on the road versus the Mercury as Taurisi only played about 15 minutes. It seems to be a thing to be able to fade these successful teams from last year as home favorites.....those teams being the Sun, Lynx, Sparks and Liberty, after they've played on good game. They all have dropped games as big favorites, more than once.
The Sparks/Dream will be the most interesting one on the board, as out of nowhere the Dream has risen to second place. They have a negative efficiency rating, which puts them towards the bottom of the league in that category, their offense is rating one of the worst in the league, but they probably are my favorite team right now to watch...when Sykes and Hayes are ballin', it doesn't matter how much pouting Angel is doing, they are getting Ws. Last month in the same matchup in LA the line vacillated between -7.5/-8.5. I would very much doubt that it'd be close to that this time. Of course the Sparks have had a couple of players out that are important to the team, but LA definitely has only spurts of time when they have been dominant this year. If Beard were to play, this game I'd probably play UNDER, but we'll see about her availability.
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