Tuesday thoughts

Question

78-44My favorite bet is a winning bet, my 2nd favorite bet is a winning under bet. I don&#x27;t know what it is about pulling off an under winning bet that feels so good but it makes me feel smarter for some odd reason.I&#x27;d imagine this is news to most of you but did you know this season is 21 days shorter than last season and with the same number of 34 games. That means more games in less time which to me is significant. In 2017 they played 34 games over 113 days, in 2018 we have 34 games in just 93 days. That&#x27;s the same amount of games in 3 weeks less time. As I mentioned in my ASG thread, at this point last year each team had 14 games left after the ASG, that&#x27;s plenty of time to adjust and jokey for playoff position. This year teams have only 8 games left after the ASG, each game is super critical.Now back to my point, I love unders. When I went back and looked how playoff teams perform these last 2 weeks of the season I found some interesting stats. If 2 winning teams (teams w/ .500 record or better) play each other in the last 2 weeks of the season the games go under 160pts 9-2 w/ the only overs being an OT and the other hitting 162. If LA or Minny are at home the under is almost a certainty. In fact, unless the Chicago Sky are involved, unders are predominant.Long story short, the gals are smart and tired and the seasoned playoff coaches are smart. We have really 8 mini playoff games coming for each team that is jockeying over the next 2 weeks. Taurasi, Bird, Griner, Parker, Maya, Whalen and their coaches will slow the game down and work on defense and possessions and not waste useless energy trying to run it up, a 79-70 win is better than a 98-94 win.I&#x27;ll be heavy on unders unless there is a glaring reason to talk me out of it, like someone playing Chicago. When 2 .500 teams play each other = under, if the last game on the board is a west coast game = under.under 166 Sea/Phx 3 betsPhx pk em 3 betsfor all the reasons above and Sea has been on the road for almost 2 weeks and are due for a road letdown...Phx has not had a home win in 3 weeks and desperately need to start this push with a home win before they hit the road to LV and LA. Odd that this features both ASG coaches going at each other again, wonder if anyone has the stats on that scenario. I suppose they won&#x27;t show their full deck of cards as both realize the importance of each game coming up and the possibility they may meet in the playoffs.82-75 PhxAlso like the under in Atl when it comes out for same reasons and most likely Wash as EDD is the best player on the court and it is time for Atl to spit the bit, that ASG came at the wrong time for them as it most likely killed their momentum.

StraightWagers · Answer

78-44My favorite bet is a winning bet, my 2nd favorite bet is a winning under bet. I don&#x27;t know what it is about pulling off an under winning bet that feels so good but it makes me feel smarter for some odd reason.I&#x27;d imagine this is news to most of you but did you know this season is 21 days shorter than last season and with the same number of 34 games. That means more games in less time which to me is significant. In 2017 they played 34 games over 113 days, in 2018 we have 34 games in just 93 days. That&#x27;s the same amount of games in 3 weeks less time. As I mentioned in my ASG thread, at this point last year each team had 14 games left after the ASG, that&#x27;s plenty of time to adjust and jokey for playoff position. This year teams have only 8 games left after the ASG, each game is super critical.Now back to my point, I love unders. When I went back and looked how playoff teams perform these last 2 weeks of the season I found some interesting stats. If 2 winning teams (teams w/ .500 record or better) play each other in the last 2 weeks of the season the games go under 160pts 9-2 w/ the only overs being an OT and the other hitting 162. If LA or Minny are at home the under is almost a certainty. In fact, unless the Chicago Sky are involved, unders are predominant.Long story short, the gals are smart and tired and the seasoned playoff coaches are smart. We have really 8 mini playoff games coming for each team that is jockeying over the next 2 weeks. Taurasi, Bird, Griner, Parker, Maya, Whalen and their coaches will slow the game down and work on defense and possessions and not waste useless energy trying to run it up, a 79-70 win is better than a 98-94 win.I&#x27;ll be heavy on unders unless there is a glaring reason to talk me out of it, like someone playing Chicago. When 2 .500 teams play each other = under, if the last game on the board is a west coast game = under.under 166 Sea/Phx 3 betsPhx pk em 3 betsfor all the reasons above and Sea has been on the road for almost 2 weeks and are due for a road letdown...Phx has not had a home win in 3 weeks and desperately need to start this push with a home win before they hit the road to LV and LA. Odd that this features both ASG coaches going at each other again, wonder if anyone has the stats on that scenario. I suppose they won&#x27;t show their full deck of cards as both realize the importance of each game coming up and the possibility they may meet in the playoffs.82-75 PhxAlso like the under in Atl when it comes out for same reasons and most likely Wash as EDD is the best player on the court and it is time for Atl to spit the bit, that ASG came at the wrong time for them as it most likely killed their momentum.

inthepaint-34 · Answer

interesting topic wagers... I&#x27;m keen to see the total for the sky v wings game coz I&#x27;m very interested on taking the over in that game

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Good stuff Wagers.Like to add, the Mercury just signed Devereax Peters to help them out. Not sure if Leilani Mitchell is back with the team but she came home to welcome her new baby to the world. So unsure if she has returned. Sancho out for season, this team is a mess if you ask me. Seattle just -1 right now, seems to good to be true. BG is soft as they come for someone her height. DT is back but gee, does she love to have a cry everytime the refs blow their whistle against Phoenix. I don&#x27;t know how Mercury plan to stop Howard and Stewart in this game, BG can&#x27;t stop both and Mercury are short on bigs now with Lyttle out.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Just ran a quick query for you Wagers. You are definitely onto something.

Not including playoffs, the under is 206-167 from game 26 onwards, hitting a nice 55.2% of the time.

When we add teams with winning percentages (500 or above) we get 49-36 to the under hitting 57.6% of the time.

When I narrow this down to just 2017, the under was 13-2

StraightWagers · Answer

yeah maybe Oz but Brondello, Taurasi, Griner and Bonner can grind a win out at home in this situation..the worst thing working against Sea is they sit in the cat bird seat whereas Phx is desperate and at home, I really don't see Sea scoring much here

Wash +135 ML 3 bets

I watched the replay of the last mtg in Atl on July 15 and that to me seemed like an early day game where Wash couldn't hit their 3s and Atl got 28FTA. I can't imagine Wash being yet the 3rd victim of this 9 game win streak for Atl, EDD and Toliver off their ASG loss will be perfect. I actually don't think this will be close as Wash will be tuned up from 3pt land and Atl doesn't have that option. Once alt line comes out I'll take Mystic on the alt ML and Atl TT under 84

84-65 Wash

dcgmt · Answer

Thanks and GL StraightWagers

inthepaint-34 · Answer

thanks for the input wagers

livin2gamble · Answer

EDD ml and pts in a parlay for me, good luck Wagers

TheWK · Answer

Fully agree with your thoughts.&#xA;I&#x27;ve personally played WAS &#x2B;5 ATL totally over-performing, they don&#x27;t have so much scoring as they are showing and their bigs are struggling to add consistently, the all-star has broken a bit their rhythm and WAS has so many dynamic wards that its hard to do not see at least one of the having a good game. Two defeats for WAS on this match-up and surely a bit of revenge mood.&#xA; &#xA;CHI-DALL under looks like the play but they have already beaten twice the line. I just refuse to see as a normal a 185 point line in WNBA. This will be either very close or a blow out for any of the teams so -11 seems a bit excessive but CHI can throw if the game gets tough.&#xA; &#xA;PHX is definitely value 2.45 currently... At home and with all the guns except Sancho. SEA are playing some good basketball but I can&#x27;t rate them so favorite on the road after a break. Will wait to try to take something live on this one.