Weekend line estimations

I did this last year in both the CFL and WNBA...predicting the CFL proved to be fruitful when the bookmaker's lines varied more than a couple of points from mine.  

The WNBA lines didn't give an advantage, so use these for entertainment value only.

Seattle +3' Phoenix  158   

Day games went UNDER at a very good percentage last year..we'll see if that holds this year.  If you have not seen Aussie's thread I suggest that you do, where you'll see early season availability of players.  If you just woke up after a 4 month's nap, you wouldn't know that Sue Bird, the Storm's quarterback is probably out for the season and  the reigning WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart is out for the season also.  Those players are worth in my estimation 11 points/game over their replacements.  Alysha Clark, their glue lady, and Sammi Whitcomb, their microwave supersub also look to be unavailable for this game due to recently finishing their overseas tournaments.  Canada, the backup pointguard is a black hole, not exactly what you want from your pointguard..... she is talented and may win a game or two when she is on, but she also will cost her team some games this year.  I would be surprised if Seattle wins more than 14 games this season.

Taurasi is out for the Mercury, which means more shots for Griner....good, good.  Sancho Lyttle is  back for Phoenix who I have a lot of respect for...unselfish, a good leader, good defender. the Mercury benefit a lot from her presence.  Greiner should average over 24 points/game this year.

Sun -5  Mystics 170 .   

Della Donne is questionable after hurting her knee.  Mystics had a good season last year, but I question them this year, more than others are.   Teams that are runners up tend to sag the next year.   Lots of things went right for them, other than injuries in the finals.  Meesseman comes back, so the coach is going to have to allocate minutes somewhat differently than last year.  They can score, but I don't think they're great at defending.  Krisi Tolliver is just amazing to watch...the best clutch player along with Taurasi in the league.  I have the feeling their guard play will drop off this year.  This team should score a ton of points and give up a ton.

The Sun?  They were discombobulated for a long stretch of games last year...started out like world beaters and then had a stretch where they couldn't win.  They probably are the best conditioned team in the league and play harder than anyone except maybe the Lynx.   Jonquel Jones will get extended minutes with Ogwumike out of the picture, but I am not sold on her...awesome  shooter for a big, but other than that she is mediocre in my opinion, which many here will disagree with.  Alyssa Thomas I said last year if she could only shoot, she could be one of the top 5 players in the history of woman's basketball.  Trouble is, she's never shown me that ability...she does everything else well, she passes, rebounds, defends, inspires, EVERYTHING.  Her free throws are pathetically bad and she can't shoot a jump shot.  Maybe she got someone who knows what they're doing to work with her this offseason, or maybe not.  The guards are above average, savvy and tough, if Claradon and Banham are expected to be in the top 8 of the rotation that will be a weakness for them.  I don't know what coaches see in Banham whatsoever.

Both teams like to run and shoot....but Della Donne if she is out curtails the Mystic firepower A LOT.  Kristi will be firing away in this one....if she's on, this could break 200 points and if she's not?

Lynx -7   Sky 158

Maya Moore, it was pretty obvious to me the last couple of seasons that she was only above average, and for the most part not the superstar she was prior to that.  Turns out there was some tension between her and Reeve, which explains a lot.  Reeve is an awesome coach, but her demeanor you'd either run through a wall for, or else you'd be pissed off and possibly sulk.  You can get away with that if you're Maya Moore who has  won championships, but last year Moore looked broken and/or tired.  Brunson, a very valuable player is out for the forseeable future and maybe forever.  Whalen is retired...she got everyone in the right position and made sure everyone got the ball, which are two very underrated skills in basketball.  She slowed down to a snail's pace last year and probably played one year too long.  The Lynx' effort and defense will be there, but their talent now is below average.  Their two bigs are over 30 years old and they will be expected to shoulder the load.  I don't think they'll be up to it.

The Sky?....well heaven is  not quite the limit for them, but finally they got rid of their coach who looked great on the bench, but could not coach a lick.  Vandersloot is the premier point guard in the league now that Bird is out, and Quigley will still be a deadeye.  They now have talent in the front line and good effort players...they will cover some games this year IF the coach can coach.

Aces -4 . Sparks 162

Sparks lose their most valuable player for awhile  in Candace Parker...who is quite an interesting player to watch with her bemused grins and often exasperated looks at the officials.  So, it is Ogwumike 1 and Ogwumike 2 nailing down the forward positions...trouble is, they both play the same way, which is that  they are garbage players, meant as a compliment, but not necessarily complementary....they get more 3 foot shots than any players in the game.  Anything outside of 12 feet is an adventure...with Parker out, the guards will be expected to knock down threes.  They should be good defensively this season as Beard is still elite as a defender, but their outside shooting will be their weakness.  And the loss of Adler is not to be underestimated, the guy could coach and the players listened to him....I see the Sparks outside of the top 4 this season.

Aces got the big Aussie and will probably rotate Cambage and Wilson inside and out.  They will be very tough inside to guard.  Teams are going to have to double Cambage inside and it will be up to the others to be able to make 15 foot jump shots when that happens.  No worries about McBride doing that, but can Plum make an open shot and can Aja Wilson play some facing the basket?....debatable.  If Plum has improved over her last season, then ok, this team will roll.  Laimbeer is excellent at coaching teams with big gals as he did with the Libery and Tina Charles.  They should steamroller teams and should double their opponents' in the  paint points....we'll see 

Great info Aussie, thanks.

Lines are out.

Openers at my book

Seattle +2'   Phoenix 161'

Sun      -3    Mystics 165

Lynx     -4    Sky      161'

Plays:

1)  Mercury -2'

2)  Sun -3

3)  Sun OVER 165.....track meet

Adding:

4)  Lynx UNDER 160'

Opening lines are moving.....

Opening line                    my line                current odds 1:30 New York time

Phoenix -2' 161             Pho -3'  158                      Pho -4  158

Connecticut -2' 165       Conn -5 170                      Cunn -5' 165'

Minnesota -4 161'         Lynx -7 158                       Lynx -4 159'

Nothing to get excited about with the early line moves...those moves went 0-2 yesterday as the public bet up the Dream and the Liberty which both lost against the spread.  Will keep track of the cumulative line moves as the season progresses.   Sharp money usually moves WNBA lines though, as it does for college football....in other words, in most seasons, the direction of the line moves wins more than they lose in the "W".     

Indigo ( and Aussie). 

Great stuff here. Really Indigo  everything  I kind of agree w except Jones will be dominant this year. But damn good stuffI forgot you as one of the best. I know you don’t care but you are and I forgot And  I want to give a shout out to you  

. 

 And damn are you right about Ms Stocks  w CHI I will miss seeing that hot body around.

brutaljoe in nyc

32-32 at the half.  I think this is what to expect from the Mercury this season.  They will play well at times and then finding offense will be a challenge.

2-2.

Pathetic by the Mercury......Griner got killed by Howard when I thought she'd dominate.  What she is doing out at the top of the key setting picks for point guards, that is a mystery.  Why don't you set picks for Griner along the baseline?  She was touching the ball 15 feet out along the baseline...not once did they cut her across the key to receive a pass.  Brondello should be the next coach fired as it looks very clear that Taurasi is the reason the Mercury are in it every year.

Sun looked ok.....Lynx were a surprise...Sky got thoroughly trounced.

day 2 still getting to know the squads.  Good things ahead