WNBA Futures

Loved Seattle last year, bet them from +500 all the way down to +175 and they cashed very easy. They were the only team last year not to lose anything to COVID. They got Stewart back from injury and with Stewart out they were able to develop Howard.

I was ready to take Seattle again this year until they lost Howard and Clark.  Seattle is talented everywhere but their front line is not too athletic and they will miss Howard unless Magbegor really steps up (and she could - she has a ton of potential).  But with their odds at +175 I don't see any value..Bird is not getting younger and they rely a lot on her to run the offense.

The Aces are the second pick at +350.  They upgraded their guards and get Cambage back from a year off.  I personally don't think Cambage and Wilson play good together, so I am not picking them.  They both do the same thing and neither likes guarding bigs that can shoot outside.

Sparks are next up at +500.  This line is a joke.  They lost half their team and they weren't good last year. They have the worst coach and front office in the league IMO.

Mystics are one of my two picks at +500.  They had all their best players sit out last year, so the rest of the team got a lot of experience. They get back Della Donne and Charles to go with Hines-Allen and Sanders for the WNBA's best front court IMO. They add Alysha Clark who can shoot 3s and is my DPOY.  I am expecting Cloud to return, she hasn't done so yet which makes me a little nervous.  

Sky are +1100.  They exchange cheyenne parker for candace parker which is an upgrade but maybe not that much of one. This is a good team, but I don't think they have enough to contend.

Sun are also +1100.  This would be a good number if they had Alyssa Thomas, but she is unfortunately done for the year with an achilles. They won't contend without. Thomas is my favorite player in the league and the best all-around player

Mercury are +1100 - they have some aging stars, but the west is too tough

Lynx +2500 - this is my second play.  I thought they would be more like +800.  Collier is a young star, and they added 3 good players in the offseason. They still have Fowles.  Dangerfield was a good rookie. They about the best coach/front office.

Dream/Wings/Fever/Liberty - all rebuilding.  

I saw my local Indian casino posted the lines this morning, so I head down there.  They had a $145 max bet on the Mystics and $30 on the Lynx.  I bet them at the counter, then at the terminal, then at another counter, then at another terminal - and the lines moved from +500 to +300 on the Mystics and +1100 on the Lynx.  $120 cut the line in half.  

great info thorpe! best of luck this season 

Fantastic info Thorpe. Some big changes to rosters and free agency has been massive. I am keeping a close eye on the Lynx. I think Reeve has put together a very solid roster. 

Agree with what you said about Storm. Loved them last year but Clark, Whitcomb and Howard all big losses. Looking at the rosters right now before they tighten up for me it’s try either Lynx or Mystics.

Lynx also added McBride who I think will thrive this season under Reeve

Lynx added 3 very good players in McBride, Achonwa, and Aerial Powers and only lost Odyssey Sims and Herbert Harrigan

 (neither contributed much last year)

One thing I am trying to find(WNBA info is not easy to find sometimes) is if they will have Western and Eastern divisions in the playoffs.

If they do, that makes me like the Mystics even more.

Almost all the good teams are in the West. Last year the Sky won the East with a 12-10 record - that would have seeded them 6th in the West.

The Sky should be a little better but the Sun much worse, and the Dream, Liberty, and Fever are not contenders.

If the Mystics have a good year, they should be heavy favorites to win the East once the playoffs start. So, even if they are +200 against the West Champ (I think they would be no worse than +130) they will have value to win the WNBA at anything better than +350 IMO

@AussieDownUnder

 Good to have you think the same way as me.  If you see some WNBA future odds posted at your book, can you copy them here?  

@StraightWagers

 Thanks, good luck to you.  Womens Hoops is the easiest sport for me. I wish my book had more lines for it, especially NCAA Womens. And they need to raise their max bet to make it a little more worthwhile

With the WNBA playoffs Thorpe they got rid of the whole conference thing. It’s the top 8 that goes through to the playoffs.

First round is a knockout game.

Seeds 5-8 play in these two games

Seeds 3-4 get a few days off and play the winners of the 5-8 seed games

Seeds 1-2 sit back even longer and get almost a week off to see who they play in a best of 5 series. The winners of that go to the finals for another best of 5.

by memory, this system was introduced in 2016 and the overall champ has always finished top 2 during the reg season. 

@thorpe

 I use four different books here in Oz and only one has posted odds

Storm +175

Mystics +300

Aces +350

Sparks + 500

Sky +1100

Sun +1100

Lynx +1100

Mercury +1100

And the others massive long shots. The only one that could do something this year is Liberty after signing Howard, getting Sabrina back and also Whitcomb but not championship contender 

@AussieDownUnder

Those are the same odds as my local Indian casino.  They use a company called Kambi to manage their book, your book probably also uses them. My small wagers.  I guess my small wagers moved the lines for everyone...sorry about that.  Maybe the lines will move again closer to the season starting...

Cloud just signed her contract with the Mystics.  I figured she would, but that makes me feel better about the futures bet.  I may put more on them. If they can win the East, I think they would be +140 at worst vs whoever comes out of the West.  I only fear Chicago in the East and I don't think they match up well vs Washington...

I agree NY will be much better, but I doubt they can contend for anything better than a .500 record.  They may be good for some Overs though...

Liberty will be good plus the points and some dog winners. 

So the schedule is going to come out by the end of March apparently. No bubble. The girls will play in their usual stadiums. WNBA is finding out how many fans will be allowed. They are taking about an inside season “Commissioner’s cup” (doing the same right now in the NBL here in Oz) which will extend the season a little longer and provide more games. The reg season will be somewhere between 30-36 games this year also. 

Hopefully the season starts around mid May..

"finding out how many fans will be allowed" haha they could allow 5% stadium capacity and it would still have empty seats...New York games had Brutal Joe and 7 lesbians in attendance pre-covid, still looking forward to the season, GL WNBA cappers 

I am wrong about the playoffs using conferences, they seed teams 1 to 8.  That is worse for the Mystics but I still like their chances.

StraightWagers, this is a WNBA forum.  You can take your hate elsewhere, we won't miss you. 

WNBA was the only sport with increased TV viewers in 2020.

Starting to change my mind abit about this Sparks team. They are putting together a very solid roster and if Parker was being a pain in Fisher arse, getting rid of her might be the best thing the Sparks has done. They are deep now with Chiney saying she will play, Nneka is always a beast and Toliver will be back. They signed Zahui B who will be a great addition and also Erica Wheeler from Indy. They have a deep bench and with this season being played around the US and not in a bubble, think the deep bench will help them. They also sent Riquna Williams to Las Vegas which is IMHO a great move because for me she was so inconsistent and barely showed up. 

so far for me (still pending roster cuts) I have these teams being the top 6 but still rosters can change significantly 

1. Sparks
2. Storm
3. Dream (they will be a sleeper team this year
4. Lynx
5. Mystics (weak bench)
6. Sky

@AussieDownUnder

 I think you forgot the Aces.  I can't imagine you don't put them top 6 intentionally.  Unless you dislike Riquina Williams that much...she is very streaky

IMO, Sparks have the worst coach in the league and a dysfunctional front office

Mystics could use another guard, they are probably hoping Leslie steps up.  Front court look set to me, even without Meesamen

I will look at the Dream a bit more.

@thorpe

 Ah yes, missed the Aces. They need to improve in the guard position though. Too many bigs and lost Robinson. Plum will be back this season and Gray has joined them but don’t have much depth. 

Alsyha Clark will miss the entire season due to a foot injury sustained whilst playing overseas. Big loss for the Mystics

There goes all the value in my Mystics futures.  Oh well, that's gambling.  Clark was going to be the difference maker IMO with her defense and 3 pt shooting. Mystics don't have a backup for her.  Maybe some day WNBA will pay their players a salary so they don't go overseas, Clark, Stewart, Thomas all lost to injury overseas.

I probably should have waited on them for the season to start but I liked the value.  At least the betting limits were small enough this won't hurt that much...

I don't like the Aces chemistry but talent-wise they are as good as anyone.  

@thorpe

 Don’t count it out just yet mate. They just signed Zellous who isn’t Alysha Clark but a very tidy veteran and pick up by the Mystics. They just need Charles, EDD and Cloud to all play well together and they are title contenders. 

Apparently the season will start no later than May 15. 

schedule apparently coming out on Tuesday before the draft 

Season tips off on May 14 and will go through to the middle of September with a break around the Olympics. First game is Liberty vs Fever. 

Very balanced schedule.  3 game against every opponent except for 2 games against 1.

Mystics get Phoenix twice.  2 road games vs both Seattle and LV.  Not the best schedule, but it is so balanced it doesn't make much difference.

@thorpe

 Good looking schedule mate and did what they could do to limit the travel. Plenty of back to back games against each other as well. Makes sense to do it that way. The girls don’t get the comforts of the NBA players when travelling unfortunately.

EDD just had back surgery and she is unlikely to be ready for training camp. Not sure if she will be ready for the start of the season either which is less than 4 weeks away. 

Sparks waived Ruffin-Pratt today (no biggie). 

Bad to worse on my Mystics futures,  hopefully EDD is healthy soon.  

This is a big year for the WNBA.  25th anniversary, good tv rating last year. If they have another good year, I think we see expansion.