The second major championship of the season is finally here, as Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler sit comfortably atop the PGA Championship odds board at Oak Hill Country Club.
With that said, our PGA Championship picks are looking further down the golf odds board for value, with a couple of second-tier Tour pros looking to contend for their first major championship title — I break it all down below.
Prop picks
Picks made on 5/17/2023 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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PGA Championship prop picks
Sungjae Im Top 20 (+145 at bet365)
The consistency with which Sunjae Im has played over the last year continues to go under the radar. And while the South Korean winning at Oak Hill would be a monumental — and pretty shocking — step, he's played too well this season to not get a serious look this week.
Starting with the results: he's fresh off a Korean Tour victory last week and is on a run of seven straight Top-20 finishes with a T16 at Augusta and a T6 at THE PLAYERS among them. He's Top 20ing at a 75% clip over his last 16 starts with a T21 finish at the API falling just short.
He's just average in terms of length off the tee (297.7, 105th in driving distance) — which will be critical this week — but he does rank 20th in driving accuracy (65.89%) and sits 13th in strokes gained off the tee for the season. If you're not going to bomb it, you'll absolutely need to hit Oak Hill's thin fairways and Sungjae is very capable of doing so.
We're otherwise looking at the statistical profile of one of the best golfers in the world. He sits seventh on DataGolf's ranking and is gaining strokes in every major category this season (10th in total strokes gained, 14th from tee to green, 19th around the green).
He missed last year's PGA due to COVID but finished T17 at Kiawah in 2021. Another strong result this week would just be par for the course.
Tyrrell Hatton Top 30 (-105 at FanDuel)
Tyrrell Hatton is another guy I've got my eyes on this week as he's in great form and routinely plays his best golf in the tougher conditions, which is what we can expect in Rochester this week.
The Englishman comes to Oak Hill after back-to-back Top-5 finishes at the Wells Fargo (T3) and Byron Nelson (T5) and looks primed for another good week at the PGA after finishing T13 at Southern Hills a year ago.
His statistical resume is stellar, with Top-15 ranks in total strokes gained (fifth), strokes gained tee-to-green (sixth), off-the-tee (11th), and on approach (11th). He also pairs an accurate driver (32nd in accuracy, 64.04%) with the requisite length off the tee (54th in distance, 304.6).
He gained strokes in all four major areas in each of his last two starts, and while he finished just outside of this threshold at Augusta (T34), that came after a missed cut at the Valero and a dead-last finish at the Match Play. He's been excellent since then.
Considering his stellar finishes — including a win in 2020 — in the tough Bay Hill conditions in recent years, I give Hatton even more of an edge in the chilly, windy weather. He's got four Top 30s to his name here at the PGA, and considering the tougher scoring conditions on tap this week, I expect a fifth from him this week.
